Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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275. Relix
Quoting reedzone:


So far I have nailed Colins track, continues to move south of the models and the NHC track.. Dunno where ur getting your info from, but mine is from data and steering patterns. Not wishcasting anything, the storm may threaten the islands the next few days, watches should go up soon.


I agree its moving south of the points, but the thing is... NHC has a reason to be so sure of their forecast. Yes they've been wrong in the past but when 85% of the models line up the same way and they agree it must be because of something. It's south of that "Landmark Point" of 15N 50W but they are expecting a sharp NW turn. I am gonna wait for StormW, Drakoebn, Levi and 456 to post something. I am still optimist it will not reach the islands, and from what I see I only expect light rains.
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Quoting flsurfer305:
nothing like a good pice of snook :)


VERY TRUE last year I caught (yes little ole me I am stronger then I look lol) a 40" snook out in Tampa bay in the winter he must have been hungry because I had on a dead popcorn shrimp and threw into the channel and my pole started singing.. great fight that was
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I'm keys as well. Play by ear been playing for a living for 25 years now.
One of my favorite bumper stickers. "Real musicians have a Day Job"
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Hmmm, 12Z early dynamic models:



Compare 12Z early statistical models:



Looks like a bit of a westward shift again, compared to 06Z early. Very slight.
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
Well Colin is definatley south of the forecast points



10-20 miles south of them, not a big deal. Still on track.
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270. IKE
No crow...

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 49.5W AT 03/1500Z
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting BDADUDE:
All you do is wishcast Reedzone!!
Is that the name of your new song? "I'm a wishcaster wishing for disaster!"


You got problems if you find it fun to insult bloggers rather than actually contribute to the blog.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


I am good actually and YES it is HOT but we have had the last two evenings just booming with bad lightening storms with lots of rain (thank goodness). I love sea trout but flounder is one of my fav's along with grouper and redfish!!!

Flounder is awesome but we don't get much here on the se coast, I usually buy it my local fish market and stuff it with crab meat and bake it. Yummy!! Grouper is awesome too. Okay, better not talk too much off topic or some people will get extremely upset. LOL
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Quoting cg2916:
Is it Caw-lin or Coh-lin. Short O or long O?
:D Cau-lin
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Well Colin is definatley south of the forecast points

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Quoting wxhatt:
Glad to see this storm will be moving out to sea and dissipating!


Probably not going to dissipate. Rather just move out to sea.
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Quoting reedzone:


So far I have nailed Colins track, continues to move south of the models and the NHC track.. Dunno where ur getting your info from, but mine is from data and steering patterns. Not wishcasting anything, the storm may threaten the islands the next few days, watches should go up soon.


He is a troll. I like your forecasts.

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Glad to see this storm will be moving out to sea and dissipating!
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Quoting reedzone:


Is everybody copying me today?? :P Good forecast :)


When it is good forecast...
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Quoting IKE:
No way the NHC raises the winds here in a few minutes. If they do...crow me...






lol
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
That ULL is going to play pac-man with Colin...and the disturbance in the Carrib....

Chomp chomp chomp
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting BDADUDE:
All you do is wishcast Reedzone!!
Is that the name of your new song? "I'm a wishcaster wishing for disaster!"


So far I have nailed Colins track, continues to move south of the models and the NHC track.. Dunno where ur getting your info from, but mine is from data and steering patterns. Not wishcasting anything, the storm may threaten the islands the next few days, watches should go up soon.
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nothing like a good pice of snook :)
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Quoting BDADUDE:
All you do is wishcast Reedzone!!
Is that the name of your new song? "I'm a wishcaster wishing for disaster!"


i think you can get in trouble for attacking someone according to the rules of the road
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Quoting Walshy:
Quoting BDADUDE:
Can't believe you are still wishcasting these things to hit America. You have some mental deficiencies, you need to listen to the experts. This system is not going to affect anyone. Don't be a wishcaster reedzone, look at the facts and don't wish these storms to hit land and cause devastation!!


You don't need a direct strike to even get deadly rip currents from these fish storms.
- OBX
- Bermuda
- Nova Scotia

Exactly, I live in Florida and we get deadly rip currents when we have large swells or heavy windchop.
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Is it Cah-lin or Coh-lin? Short O or long O?
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Quoting OneDrop:

How are you today ho77ywOOd? Getting hot in Lee county yet? Finally had a little T-storm move here through Deerfield Beach, the first in many days. Question? I know you were eating Redfish the other day, do you eat Sea Trout as well?


I am good actually and YES it is HOT but we have had the last two evenings just booming with bad lightening storms with lots of rain (thank goodness). I love sea trout but flounder is one of my fav's along with grouper and redfish!!!
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
Quoting reedzone:


Is everybody copying me today?? :P Good forecast :)


There are a few of us still out here in left field. I think it will ride the western edge of the cone with less of a bend to the NW @ 72hrs. Also holding the possibility it gets hung up east of the Bahamas.
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249. IKE
No way the NHC raises the winds here in a few minutes. If they do...crow me...



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Matt1989:
So far this hurricane season reminds me so much of 2006. Suppose to be a bad one. But ULL and dry air everywhere causing storms to fizzle. And then if they did develop they went to Mexico or curved out.


Going to Mexico means its not a bad year?
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Can't believe you are still wishcasting these things to hit America. You have some mental deficiencies, you need to listen to the experts. This system is not going to affect anyone. Don't be a wishcaster reedzone, look at the facts and don't wish these storms to hit land and cause devastation!!


You don't need a direct strike to even get deadly rip currents from these fish storms.
- OBX
- Bermuda
- Nova Scotia
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246. MahFL
Colin is past 50 and no where near 15 yet.
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Tropics come alive?



Link
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Center still east of 50W, but also well south of 15N:

Thanks. I really don't understand this so just look at the blob that LOOKS like the center. In other words, the heaviest convection is west of the actual center ?
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


oh ok lol I see u answered it already

How are you today ho77ywOOd? Getting hot in Lee county yet? Finally had a little T-storm move here through Deerfield Beach, the first in many days. Question? I know you were eating Redfish the other day, do you eat Sea Trout as well?
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BBL
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Are there still competeing vorticies in this storm? Thats gotta make for some confusion to the models.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
My 72hr forecast.





Is everybody copying me today?? :P Good forecast :)
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Quoting Relix:
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_04.gif


Until collin begins making a more wnw-nw turn I have to lean towards the CMC in the short term. It has been consistent in bringing this one more west and i know it looks like an outlier on the map but it is the only model that has been somewhat accounting for the current motion
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235. Relix
Colin is moving WNW. As I said, maybe a bit south of the points but I honestly believe it poses no threat to the Antilles. The NHC is extremely sure about the track, so are the models. The XTRAP movement still has it even passing south of PR, but its already starting to feel the through.
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My 72hr forecast.



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232. flsky
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes, I spoke about it in post 142.

"Surface pressures remain relatively high in the vicinity of PGI23L, however it is accompanied by strong divergence aloft, this should translate to lowering of surface pressures. MIMIC-TPW suggests that PGI23L is accompanied by pretty well-defined cyclonic curvature. Upper level winds are also favorable for development as it is accompanied by an anticyclone. Dry air is also minimal around the system. The only inhibiting factor I see is land, but that should not be a problem in a couple of days. At the moment I would give PGI23L a medium chance (30-50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 72-96 hours."



Thanks! I went back thru most of the posts this a.m., but didn't get that far back.
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Quoting sarahjola:
it actually was very creepy to find. this old truck washed up during katrina in st. bernard parish. it was full of marsh grass and had this baby doll in it. while waiting for it to be removed the wind blew real hard and the passenger door flew open and that is what i saw. had to take a pic. of that.:) thanks for the answer:)

Your Welcome. Wow, that door flying open must have scared the poopy out you!! That photo pretty much tells the story.
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Don't know if I am looking at this right but looks like Colin has passed 50W and still south of 15N. Correct me please and explain if I am wrong. TIA
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Quoting sarahjola:
it actually was very creepy to find. this old truck washed up during katrina in st. bernard parish. it was full of marsh grass and had this baby doll in it. while waiting for it to be removed the wind blew real hard and the passenger door flew open and that is what i saw. had to take a pic. of that.:) thanks for the answer:)


oh ok lol I see u answered it already
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
If Colin continues to move south of the forecast points, then the Antilles needs to be watching it closely, possibly under Tropical Storm watches.
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I agree with ya jeff. I was wrong to bro. I didn't see that troff either dude. As long as we admit it and don't be arogant about it. This weather is really changing bro. I really thought this was the year of ridging. What happened to the mjo and nao? Pooof. I bet storm w has to go back to the drawing board.
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So far this hurricane season reminds me so much of 2006. Suppose to be a bad one. But ULL and dry air everywhere causing storms to fizzle. And then if they did develop they went to Mexico or curved out.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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