Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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2975. IKE
Quoting aquak9:


I got in about 20 minutes ago, it was still from yesterday. Maybe he's updating, cause I can't get in at all now.
Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2974. aquak9
yo jeff9641!! awesome jumpstart to the morning, foot a'tappin, noddin' m'head.

Yeah thanks for that!
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2971. Drakoen
Looks like 92L is a little better organized this morning. The system has found itself in a sweet spot east of the right entrance region of a positively titled trough and just west of an upper level high. The cimss show positive divergence aloft, however, there does not appear to be any forcing for ascent in the lower levels yet. Models forecast upper level winds to be more favorable directionally as the system gets more in the central and western Caribbean.
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2970. aquak9
Quoting IKE:


I got into it a few minutes ago.


I got in about 20 minutes ago, it was still from yesterday. Maybe he's updating, cause I can't get in at all now.
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No longer paying attention to invests, not till a nameed storm am I tracking anything anymore. Tired of wasting time
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Seems like the current preveiling steering currents, if I am reading the charts correctly, would take Colin's remnants towards Florida, unless, regeration of some kind were to occur..
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Thanks, Storm, for your update!
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92L runs from the NHC

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2963. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
anyone having any trouble getting into CrownWeather?

G'morning Keeper. Grab a straw and a coffee pot, I think we've given up on cups this morning.


I got into it a few minutes ago.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Well, I've done my damage coffee-wise [in more ways than 1 lol] and now gotta go get ready for the day... will attempt to pop in as and when opportunity permits....

Have a great one, everybody!
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2961. aquak9
anyone having any trouble getting into CrownWeather?

G'morning Keeper. Grab a straw and a coffee pot, I think we've given up on cups this morning.
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2960. IKE
Quoting StormW:


COLIN REMNANT LOW / INVEST 92L SYNOPSIS AUG. 04, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.


Here's what you said...."As far as any type of track, I am partial to the satellite overlay, and I am in between the NGXI, and EGRI track of the 06Z Dynamic model suite, with emphasis toward recurvature at the moment."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2959. 7544
great update storm so u think colin might go further west today and may mis the hostile areas tia
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good morning bloggers another day lets see what it may bring


Top of the Morning to you KOG!!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting SeaMule:
three areas to watch. we should be busier than a one-armed paper hanger soon....

is that politically incorrect? Will I be arrested for slamming one-armed people?

I think the Caribbean blow-up, and the wave just north of the ITCZ...are two areas that will develop. who knows...maybe anemic Colin will survive and suprise us.
One of my Uncles was a Wall Paper Hanger. Got the really high dollar jobs. Supposed to be the best around. Watched him once. He did our tiny livingroom with the remainents of a couple of jobs he had covered over. (He always kept some back from his big jobs so could go back and cover some rich folks party fowl (wine splash etc. Now that was a busy man. and he had all his appendages. (Off topic but it's early.)
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting msgambler:
I's called a long metal stick silly....LOL


Golf Club would be fine too... LOL

Morning gambler! Ill be playing next week in Tampa on vacation! (poker) Also the lightning weather has been tending towards tampa so I may be able to capture some great stuff next week!!!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
The 06Z HWRF on post tropical Colin indicates the moisture with 92L will be further north on the Yucatan. That is the lower resolution nest, but may be an indication.


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2953. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good morning bloggers another day lets see what it may bring
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2952. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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92L---goodlord, since I first looked at it around 0430 this morning, the thing has really blown up in size!
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Quoting FLdewey:


They're pretty easy to build... makes a good project if you enjoy solder burns and electrical shocks. ;-)


Im not much of an engineer but have 3 that work for me.. I couldnt imagine it would be easy to build something that could stand up to weather and log the data so it could be uploaded?? Sounds very technical..
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
2948. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
04L/XX/REM LOW
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Antilles Radar


Rotation is somewhat visible
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Quoting aquak9:
"one cup dispenser"

on a coffee maker???

Does anyone else find this as totally hilarious as I do??

hi coops!! :)
See, u don't drop carafes the way I do... lol.... it DISPENSES 1 cup at a time, not MAKES 1 cup at a time.... It just cuts out the "middleman" [i.e. carafe] and puts the coffee straight in the cup....
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Quoting aquak9:


we got'm and they've been selling like hotcakes. The Thunderbolt lightning detectors come in many different kinds, they are really cool and small. Didn't used to sell that many but now it's a different story.

You know Rainman will do ya right- just contact him when you're ready.


I spoke to Dr. Masters about it about a year ago and he said Bolt tech since that has uploadable data.. That way I would see the readings on wundergrounds maps and I could just see it on my lap top while Im on the chase. I think they are pretty expensive... So it may be a while.. I need a payment plan so I can slip it by the wife. LOL
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
2944. scott39
92L is looking impressive with strong convection on the N and W side.
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2942. aquak9
so d'fly, what do you drink in the morning? coffee or soda?

hoo-boy am I ever off topic...
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Morning Storm! Thanks for the informative update, as always. We'll be watching the disturbance carefully here in Cayman.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
My next gadget will be a lightning detector.. (Im sure you know why) but would love to have something in my backyard!!!
I's called a long metal stick silly....LOL
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Thnaks for the update StormW
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2938. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/92/L
MARK
14.31N/71.43W
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2937. aquak9
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
My next gadget will be a lightning detector.. (Im sure you know why) but would love to have something in my backyard!!!


we got'm and they've been selling like hotcakes. The Thunderbolt lightning detectors come in many different kinds, they are really cool and small. Didn't used to sell that many but now it's a different story.

You know Rainman will do ya right- just contact him when you're ready.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
"one cup dispenser"

on a coffee maker???

Does anyone else find this as totally hilarious as I do??

hi coops!! :)


Im really not much of a coffee drinker but the Fru Fru kind.. I grew up on Coke and Pepsi.. My wife loves her Single cup of coffee maker since no one else drinks it in the house.. Until her parents get here then they break out the old Gallon a minute coffee maker.. LOL Then our place smells like Starbucks in the morning...
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
2935. IKE
6Z HWRF......and 6Z GFDL......on Colin.

Where are the west-casters with Colin this morning?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting HouGalv08:
Problem with those one cup dispensers---you have to use the K-cups or packets provided for those machines. Had one and got rid of it. I missed the art of grinding fresh ,and the aroma of fresh ground.
The 1 I was looking at the other day took the regular 4 cup filters just like my Mr. Coffee Jr.... it was 1 of the things that caught my attention.

All I know is, I gotta have my cuppa to face the possibilities inherent in a potential revival of Colin just east of the Bahamas.... lol
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Quoting aquak9:
"one cup dispenser"

on a coffee maker???

Does anyone else find this as totally hilarious as I do??

hi coops!! :)


ayuh - Hard enough to wait for the first pot to brew (and I use a Bunn - 3 minutes) - can't imagine having to wait over and over and....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Noticed that too. Should be interesting to see what they find about the upper atmosphere, since that's what's most likely to affect the progress of xColin...
So, is ex Colin an invest, and are there models being run on it?
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Quoting aquak9:
"one cup dispenser"

on a coffee maker???

Does anyone else find this as totally hilarious as I do??

hi coops!! :)
Not much of a jump start there. Barely flash the headlights.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
2929. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
WHXX01 KWBC 041132
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1132 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100804 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 0600 100804 1800 100805 0600 100805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 71.0W 15.3N 74.5W 16.3N 77.6W 17.1N 80.6W
BAMD 14.2N 71.0W 14.9N 73.7W 15.7N 76.2W 16.7N 78.4W
BAMM 14.2N 71.0W 15.0N 74.1W 15.8N 76.9W 16.8N 79.6W
LBAR 14.2N 71.0W 15.0N 73.5W 16.2N 76.1W 17.5N 78.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 0600 100807 0600 100808 0600 100809 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 83.4W 19.5N 88.2W 20.9N 93.1W 22.9N 97.6W
BAMD 17.6N 80.4W 18.9N 84.0W 19.9N 87.8W 20.8N 92.0W
BAMM 17.8N 82.0W 19.5N 86.5W 21.1N 91.1W 23.0N 95.5W
LBAR 18.8N 80.8W 21.1N 84.4W 23.5N 87.0W 25.5N 88.5W
SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 67KTS 71KTS
DSHP 47KTS 58KTS 41KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 68.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 64.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Quoting aquak9:


Thank YOU, Dragonfly! We at RainmanWeather (better business seal of approval, authorized vendor for WeatherUnderground, authorized industrial vendor for NOAA, too) work really hard to please the customer.

And I love having THREE weather stations on the house, and getting to play with all the cool new technology from Davis, LaCrosse, Honeywell, Kestral, as well as all the ULTRA-COOL gadgets for emergency preparedness.

THANK YOU!!!
My next gadget will be a lightning detector.. (Im sure you know why) but would love to have something in my backyard!!!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
2926. scott39
Quoting StormW:


It appears from satellite loop imagery, that there is a broad area of lower pressure, and if a LLC develops, it could be anywhere within that circle.
thanks
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2925. aquak9
"one cup dispenser"

on a coffee maker???

Does anyone else find this as totally hilarious as I do??

hi coops!! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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