Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BDADUDE:
Can't believe you are still wishcasting these things to hit America. You have some mental deficiencies, you need to listen to the experts. This system is not going to affect anyone. Don't be a wishcaster reedzone, look at the facts and don't wish these storms to hit land and cause devastation!!


Have you noticed that guys like this are "drive by posters"? They come in, take a shot at someone and then leave...

For what it's worth, Reed is knowledgeable and his forecasts are based, for the most part, on that knowledge...I don't always agree with him but when does anyone here agree with anyone one hundred percent? BDADUDE is a troll and as such should be ignored...
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Quoting IKE:


That will really slow the blog down.

Yeah...it's moving too fast and shedding it's clothes. This could get rather x-rated shortly.....



Why is there a giant diagonal cloud line running through Colin?
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323. Relix
NHC Downcasters confirmed! =P
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Quoting IKE:
...AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.


We are gathered here today?


i thought a storm would not have a name if it does not have a closed ciruclation
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321. IKE
Dedicated to Colin....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Colin could very possibly open back up into a wave today or tomorrow imo. The discussion sounded very doubtful that Colin might be able to sustain one today. Not downcasting, but Colin might die soon.


Official forecast does call for modest strengthening. Lots of hedging in the discussion though.
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@earthlydragonfly

I wouldn't say so much as the Caribbean disturbance as Colin. CIMSS showed the Caribbean disturbance in a good upper level environment.
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Quoting IKE:
...AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.


We are gathered here today?


Not yet.
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This movie says it all about the track of Colin:

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Colin could very possibly open back up into a wave today or tomorrow imo. The discussion sounded very doubtful that Colin might be able to sustain one today. Not downcasting, but Colin might die soon.


That can be a good and a bad thing down the line if in fact it is open and decides to close back up again in the Bahamas, minus the trough.
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NHC forecasts strengthening at 120 hours, suggesting favorable conditions later on for TD/TS/Open wave Colin
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314. IKE
Quoting Relix:
So it's possible Colin is not even a tropical cyclone anymore. Heh.


That will really slow the blog down.

Yeah...it's moving too fast and shedding it's clothes. This could get rather x-rated shortly.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
313. Relix
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Colin could very possibly open back up into a wave today or tomorrow imo. The discussion sounded very doubtful that Colin might be able to sustain one today. Not downcasting, but Colin might die soon.


From what they said yeah. It's moving too fast for its own good. That + Shear = Insta Death. I said last night I expected it to die between 12-24 hours. Let's see if I am spot on.
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Quoting IKE:


I've got a good comeback, but I better not.




LOL I was thinking the same thing IKE.. LOL
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Colin could very possibly open back up into a wave today or tomorrow imo. The discussion sounded very doubtful that Colin might be able to sustain one today. Not downcasting, but Colin might die soon.
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Quoting angiest:
Hmmm, 12Z early dynamic models:



Compare 12Z early statistical models:



Looks like a bit of a westward shift again, compared to 06Z early. Very slight.
It appears that some of these are indicating that it may miss the first trough. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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wow it is about time the NHC see the storm moving west and also I see they moved the cone more to the left I think it just might keep on moving left as the storm keeps it westerly components I expect it to start turning more WNW around near 55-60W
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306. Relix
So it's possible Colin is not even a tropical cyclone anymore. Heh.
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repost so it doesn't get lost in the sea of advisory posts, REALLY, I thought we all knew where the NHC was?


284. CyclonicVoyage 2:37 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Probably not going to dissipate. Rather just move out to sea.



REALLY tough call beyond 72hrs, a lot of things in play here. Most likely it will go out to sea but, we'll have to see how strong that trough gets. Not far behind my initial thought is that it gets hung up east of the Bahama's. Have to make that determination in the next 24hrs as things become more clear.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Following that left trend.
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303. IKE
...AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.


We are gathered here today?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting OneDrop:

Flounder is awesome but we don't get much here on the se coast, I usually buy it my local fish market and stuff it with crab meat and bake it. Yummy!! Grouper is awesome too. Okay, better not talk too much off topic or some people will get extremely upset. LOL


Yea..The SABP will get ya...
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Quoting reedzone:


West it is, thought it was just north of due west. Thanks for the clarification.


Movement is 280 degrees, absolutely due west would be 270, so it is a tad north of due west but apparently just enough south not to be WNW.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Lets get the record straight here. Colin will likely move out to sea, there is a trough digging in from the W and will move it out to sea. We'll have to watch that trough if it stalls out as it could spin off little low pressure centers and 'try' to spawn some unwanted mischief. The probability of that happening at this time is low to me. We'll also want to watch the Caribbean closely, as its possible that 20% in the Caribbean 'could' try to do something as it nears the Western Caribbean, if it doesn't develop it adds to the heat buildup in the Caribbean increasing the likelihood of monsoonal development. The ECMWF is also hinting at developing the wave emerging off Africa at this time within the ITCZ in a similar manner as Colin. Tropics are about to pick up in activity.

I second that
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Quoting reedzone:
Yep, the NHC shifted the track south because Colin is moving just north of due west right now. The NHC SHORT TERM track is right in line with mine as of 11 a.m.

I agree with you all the way. The fast forward speed is takin the storm to far to the west to make that curve out to sea. I still see a turn , but not a fish. The us east coast as well as Puerto Rico and Bahamas must keep an eye on this system
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Quoting reedzone:


West it is, thought it was just north of due west. Thanks for the clarification.


NHC is coming around, lol, good job dude.
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COLIN HAS A VERY RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING A SMALL CONVECTIVE MASS
NEAR THE CENTER AND A SECOND CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS HARD TO FIND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.


CURRENTLY...COLIN IS EXPERIENCING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSED BY THE LOWER PART OF THE STORM OUTRUNNING THE UPPER PART.
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR DUE TO THE RAPID
MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CAUSED BY THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE ONLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT
CURRENTLY CALLS FOR COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLIMATOLOGY/
PERSISTENCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN COULD DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN WAVE
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ITS RAPID MOTION AND WESTERLY SHEAR.
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294. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:
Some of the models are starting to bend left I wonder if this stalls near the Bahamas. If that happens all beats are off.


I've got a good comeback, but I better not.


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Gee, looks like Colin is moving West...
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Islands now included...Colin moving west fast!

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Quoting Jesus2005:
Greetings from the British Virgin Islands. My friend had spoken' to me about this website before; therefore, I finally decided to check it out.


Ok. Let me be the first to give you Wunderblog 101!

Welcome to the blog! Here's a quick summary of the blog.

Pros: Very interesting, funny, a learning experience.

Cons: A couple crazies.

Here are some basics you need to know.

Invest: Areas of interest that have been designated by the National Hurricane Center as Invests. They go from 90L to 99L, then start back over again. In the East Pacific, it's 90E to 99E.

Crow: Ahh, crow. One of the most important things on the blog. If you hear a reference to crow, it comes from the phrase "Eat Crow", meaning eat your words.

JFV: A troll who makes like 50 usernames and tries to sneak onto the blog, even though he always gets banned.

Fish: A fish storm is a storm that goes out to sea, and only affects fish.

-caster: There are a lot of "casters" on the blog. Here are some examples:

Wishcaster: The most popular. They wish that a storm forms and becomes very powerful.

Downcaster: The 2nd most popular. They forecast that the storm won't form/strengthen very much.

Any questions?
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Quoting IKE:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...COLIN MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 49.5W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



West it is, thought it was just north of due west. Thanks for the clarification.
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Quoting IKE:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...COLIN MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 49.5W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



I think the most important point to take from that is that the storm is moving WEST.
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Lets get the record straight here. Colin will likely move out to sea, there is a trough digging in from the W and will move it out to sea. We'll have to watch that trough if it stalls out as it could spin off little low pressure centers and 'try' to spawn some unwanted mischief. The probability of that happening at this time is low to me. We'll also want to watch the Caribbean closely, as its possible that 20% in the Caribbean 'could' try to do something as it nears the Western Caribbean, if it doesn't develop it adds to the heat buildup in the Caribbean increasing the likelihood of monsoonal development. The ECMWF is also hinting at developing the wave emerging off Africa at this time within the ITCZ in a similar manner as Colin. Tropics are about to pick up in activity.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Probably not going to dissipate. Rather just move out to sea.


REALLY tough call beyond 72hrs, a lot of things in play here. Most likely it will go out to sea but, we'll have to see how strong that trough gets. Not far behind my initial thought is that it gets hung up east of the Bahama's. Have to make that determination in the next 24hrs as things become more clear.
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283. Prgal
...Colin moving rapidly toward the west with little change in
strength...




summary of 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...14.2n 49.5w
about 840 mi...1355 km ESE of the Leeward Islands
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hr
present movement...W or 280 degrees at 24 mph...39 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches




watches and warnings
--------------------
interests in the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin ilsnads
should monitor the progress of Colin.




Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 14.2 north...longitude 49.5 west. Colin is
moving toward the west near 24 mph...39 km/hr...and a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track...the center of Colin should pass to
the northeast and north of the Leeward Islands late Wednesday and
early Thursday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.




Hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.




Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Beven
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Quoting OneDrop:

Flounder is awesome but we don't get much here on the se coast, I usually buy it my local fish market and stuff it with crab meat and bake it. Yummy!! Grouper is awesome too. Okay, better not talk too much off topic or some people will get extremely upset. LOL


lol I know right but geez now you made me hungry ugh...
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Quoting reedzone:


So far I have nailed Colins track, continues to move south of the models and the NHC track.. Dunno where ur getting your info from, but mine is from data and steering patterns. Not wishcasting anything, the storm may threaten the islands the next few days, watches should go up soon.


Yeah doesnt look like a direct hit for the islands but I could definately see watches going up in a day or so. Looks like the models continue to shift westward too.
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Yep, the NHC shifted the track south because Colin is moving just north of due west right now. The NHC SHORT TERM track is right in line with mine as of 11 a.m.
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279. IKE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...COLIN MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 49.5W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
at200512
Tropical Storm Colin
Wind: 40 MPH — Location: 14.2N 49.5W — Movement: W
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Quoting reedzone:


So far I have nailed Colins track, continues to move south of the models and the NHC track.. Dunno where ur getting your info from, but mine is from data and steering patterns. Not wishcasting anything, the storm may threaten the islands the next few days, watches should go up soon.

Wow, dude... i really respect you for staying calm... i would have been angry and yelled at the idiot
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Quoting 69Viking:


Did you read what the Doc wrote, there is no guarantee the first trough is going to turn it out to sea and if that happens the high that builds back in could push Colin into the East coast. Then on Monday another trough is coming through, if anything this is a tough one to forecast.

Thankfully another upper low will keep Colin from getting too strong. Is it just me or are there a lot of upper lows in the tropics this year??? Seems everytime a storm forms it plows into and upper low and weakens and never recovers. Of course that's great for keeping storms weak but I don't remember seeing so many upper lows in years past.
are you from the tropics? I am a wishcaster no doubt, but i say what I see. I went through 05 in Miami Beach (Katrina, Rita and Wilma) and it was the best summer I have ever had. Hurricanes are a ton of fun. Aside from the cool weather out the window you get hurricane parties where everyone is off work for 3 days (I'm a writer so doesnt effect my schedule) and so people gather to drink and participate in other illicit activities a pg blog can't handle; so long as you live in an important area you get power back in plus/minus 24 hours and so it's a solidarity quest holding out til Publix opens again. I did the same thing when I grew up in the northeast with blizzards. They were the bext parties I ever saw up there. That said this one is going out to sea, but ya I do WANT them to hit me if its a 3 or less (Wilma was a 3, never been through worse, but handled Wilma fine in fact that was the coolest one I have been through)
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275. Relix
Quoting reedzone:


So far I have nailed Colins track, continues to move south of the models and the NHC track.. Dunno where ur getting your info from, but mine is from data and steering patterns. Not wishcasting anything, the storm may threaten the islands the next few days, watches should go up soon.


I agree its moving south of the points, but the thing is... NHC has a reason to be so sure of their forecast. Yes they've been wrong in the past but when 85% of the models line up the same way and they agree it must be because of something. It's south of that "Landmark Point" of 15N 50W but they are expecting a sharp NW turn. I am gonna wait for StormW, Drakoebn, Levi and 456 to post something. I am still optimist it will not reach the islands, and from what I see I only expect light rains.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron