Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Caribbean AOI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
471. IKE
Quoting Relix:


Seems like he hit a brickwall here. Not good for him.


Visible through 1445 UTC...I've got a T-shirt and pair of jeans I can give him....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
CMC is the only model I don't have a link to....can someone post it please and thank you.

Jill
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COLIN looks more and more like ANA. ANA degenerated from a weak TS to a pathetic TD just east of the leewards. Nothing significant happened here.
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
CMON!!!! Let's get some action going in the GOM!!! Colin boring!!!!


You definitely do not want anything in the GOM right now.

*POOF*
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Morning everyone. Taking a quick look at our speed-racer Colin....



Here u can see the high that is steering Colin. The Nrn Bahamas is currently getting some thunderstorm activity from the Srn edge of the front that's supposed to turn Colin to the N.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
464. Relix
Quoting IKE:




Seems like he hit a brickwall here. Not good for him.
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463. Relix
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Ascat missed. Structure to remain a guess.




Of all the times to miss it. XD
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462. IKE


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Record temps cause deaths:

Link
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
Anyone see a small circulation near Bahamas?
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458. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Somebody cue the Price is Right Losing Horn...
Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I bet the GFNI & CMC are scaring the pants off the Florexans :) GFNI has it going thru the Florida straits.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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TropicalStormColin heading for a passage between Dominica and Martinique in ~30hours...
(Copy&paste 12.6N41.1W-13.0N42.5W, 13.0N42.5W-bbq, jax, 13.0N42.5W-13.6N45.1W, 13.6N45.1W-18.1N71.1W, bda, 13.6N45.1W-14.0N47.2W, 14.0N47.2W-sfc, 14.0N47.2W-14.2N49.5W, 14.2N49.5W-15.0N61.2W into the GreatCircleMapper)
Between its last two positions, TSColin had been heading 275.4degrees (5.4degrees north of dueWest) at a speed of ~26mph(42km/h).

TSColin's path has been turning evermore westward, by 11degrees over the last 24hours. In other words, it'll soon have to recurve northward to miss a midLesserAntilles entrance into the Caribbean.
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Ascat missed. Structure to remain a guess.


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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
BDADUDE pings from a familiar node.
Bet more than one handle pings from there.
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451. beell
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, that's interesting...what is that?



Confluence axis. Easterlies to the east. South easterlies to the southeast. A coming together of winds. Maybe just the western edge of the dry air surge to the NW of Colin. Two different things?
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450. Lizpr
Time for some Cheerios and a bagel.
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Not sure what to make of this TPW loop. It looks like Colin is still embedded in an unusually vigorous wave, which is what is dragging Colin along so quickly. Dry air may not be so much of an issue if the wave pinches off the dry air to the north and Colin continues to pull moisture from the ITCZ.
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04L/TS/C
MARK
14.5N/50.1W
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Quoting cg2916:
'

If it reaches 50W without being 15N, its chances of recurving diminish greatly.


Thanks.
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Record temps

Link
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
Quoting IKE:
Watch the convection just get shredded at about 51W....Link


Indeed, thanks for posting that
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436. Relix
I think Collin died. I see no circulation in the west and SW corners. Oops. It's just a cluster of moving t-storms. Let's see what happens (and what StormW has to say!)
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Quoting StadiumEffect:
Are you sure about that? I seem to remember it having sustained tropical storm force winds well removed from the center, but they did not name it until it had a poorly defined center of circulation, which they found removed from the heaviest thunderstorms.
You are correct. Dolly crossed over Cayman as a "disturbance" with tropical storm force winds but was not named until she crossed us and HH found a closed COC.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Looks like it may cross the NE Caribbean and head toward PR. Very similar to what the CMC has been forecasting the last couple of days.


Never thought I'd be saying the CMC nailed the track.
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Quoting IKE:


That will really slow the blog down.

Yeah...it's moving too fast and shedding it's clothes. This could get rather x-rated shortly.....



Oh noes!

not naked swirls
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Not much shown on this Ascat solution


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Quoting aquak9:
do I smell a zombie?

Does anyone else?
Oh yeah. It only takes teh one comment to figure it out.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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