Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BDAwx:
I dont know if anybody else noticed the swirls off of the NC coast : Link


Home-grown shenanigans?
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Quoting txag91met:


Source=me.
Go look at the cities and the airport locations. Data clearly shows warming (mainly from urbanization, some from global warming).


Oh. Well, don't take this the wrong way, but while "Because I said so, that's why!" may work in parenting, it's not really a relevant, credible part if the scientific method.
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Quoting flashdash:
Stick to tropical weather, you're embarrassing yourself ranting about global warming...


Dr Masters owns the blog. He puts in the header what should be discussed in the blog
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Quoting SLU:


Good point Mr.


Well unfortunately, the point usually misses the intended audience.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
619. BDAwx
I dont know if anybody else noticed the swirls off of the NC coast : Link
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Quoting SCwannabe:
Is this a Global Warming blog or a Tropical Weather Blog? It's sometimes becoming hard to tell the difference. I wish we could go back to just having posts about tropical weather!


It shouldn't be that hard to tell the difference; just read the blog entry for a clue.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Image from 00Z FIMZ (experimental) to fuel flames




FIM is a new global weather prediction model currently
under development in the Global Systems Division
of NOAA/ESRL. The acronym FIM indicates
that the model uses a flow-following, i.e., quasi-
Lagrangian vertical coordinate, finite-volume numerics,
and an icosahedral global grid.
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Colin looks like crap right now. Now resemblance of a circulation and no organized banding or convection associated with him. I don't think he should develop for another 4-5 days, into a strong system until the wind shear abates from the upper level low in his way. Dry air does not seem to be a big factor, only the lack of circulation becoming vertically stacked due to the forward speed he is moving and the vertical wind shear in his way. He could redevelop afterward east and northeast of the Bahamas as water temps warm considerably and shear abates from the ull. He should become a greater threat as he nears the SE US coast and potentially a threat to the Northeast US if conditions allow. THe East Coast of the US residents should monitor the progress of this weak tropical cyclone, given the potential impacts it could bring early next week to this region. Stay tuned.
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Dry air inhibiting most development so far. dry air is the wild card noone could predict this year.Deserts expanding, more dust in air. global warming REDUCES STORMS?? Possible if atmospheric moisture levels stay low over the ATL
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Pretty much what we talked about last night, then.

So Colin looks like it may fizzle, our ACE for the season is still pretty low despite 3 named storms already..... I guess the season is going to be a BUST - A bust I tell u!

But SERIOUSLY.... lol


Yes, I did say that I had doubts about its staying power and we are seeing that play out today.
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Quoting aspectre:
465 sammywammybamy "My Forecast For Collin: [path map] I put alot of Time into it"

Certainly looks like you've been putting thought into it... when many others appear to have been busy model-worshiping.
JoeBastardi has been giving FAR better forecasts of TSColin's movements (and development within the context of the surrounding environment) than the NationalHurricanecenter or any of the models (except possibly last night's NGFDL).
Good grief, XTRP has been a FAR better predictor of TSColin's storm path than any of the models.

As for your prediction, hafta give a shrug. Looks at least as likely as the best of the models.
But frankly I'm not good enough at reading weather maps to be qualified to make judgments... which is why I pretty much stick to reporting what TropicalCyclones had been doing rather than forecasts of what it will do.
And trying to get folks to look at what TSColin is actually doing rather than what the models say it's s'poseta be doing.


You have JBs date/timestamp latitude longitude intensity numbers?
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612. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Colin's on life support.


2010 so far is at 3-1-0, the last La Nina year and imo a good analog year 2007 at this point was at 3-0-0.

2007 eventually featured 15-6-2. Pretty active year, while most storms where weak look what happened with some of those storms. Dean and Felix, you know the story with them. You had Humberto, that sucker went from a invest to a Hurricane in 20 hours. You had Noel, the deadliest storm of the season killed 163 people. The season in total caused 3 billion dollars in damage, tame compared to most years and killed 394 people. The only reason that season is called average is because the US wasn't really touched, the Caribbean was ravaged that year.


Good point Mr.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Image from 00Z FIMZ (experimental) to fuel flames




Good afternoon...

Well Colin's track might start resembling that of Fay soon.
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609. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOMENG
11:00 PM PhST August 3 2010
=============================================

At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Domeng located at 15.6°N 128.6°E or 440 kms east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 5 knots.

Additional Information
========================
This weather disturbance is still too far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
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Rain over New Providence and Central Eleuthera.



E Car Twave looks to be kicking some high clouds.



Colin, speeding, spreading and struggling....
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Stick to tropical weather, you're embarrassing yourself ranting about global warming...
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I was so looking forward to the Northern Lights tonight here in Scotland but now the cloud has come in and the weather forecast is just for clouds, clouds and more clouds. I hate typical Scottish weather lol!
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Image from 00Z FIMZ (experimental) to fuel flames


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465 sammywammybamy "My Forecast For Collin: [path map] I put alot of Time into it"

Certainly looks like you've been putting thought into it... when many others appear to have been busy model-worshiping.
JoeBastardi has been giving FAR better forecasts of TSColin's movements (and development within the context of the surrounding environment) than the NationalHurricaneCenter or any of the models (except possibly last night's NGFDL).
Good grief, XTRP has been a FAR better predictor of TSColin's storm path than any of the models.

As for your prediction, hafta give a shrug. Looks at least as likely as the best of the models. But frankly I'm not good enough at reading weather maps to be qualified to make judgments... which is why I pretty much stick to reporting what TropicalCyclones had been doing rather than forecasts of what they will do.
And trying to get folks to look at what TSColin is actually doing rather than what the models say it's s'poseta be doing.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Good thing it's not a NASCAR blog, you wouldn't have anything to post about. 88? J/K LOL


That's for sure!
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I've been thinking about Colin opening out into a wave again, and remembering Andrew. NO, I'm not forecasting Colin to become a cat 5 and destroy S FL; I'm talking about how thoroughly Andrew's parent system had degenerated at one point, only to come back and form itself into a compact and powerful system. I'm wondering how much motivating energy there is w/ Colin - enough to allow it to reconstruct itself once past the worst of the shear forecasted to be in its path?
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600. beell
Alrighty, then. Blog says west.
Link
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Quoting SCwannabe:
Is this a Global Warming blog or a Tropical Weather Blog? It's sometimes becoming hard to tell the difference. I wish we could go back to just having posts about tropical weather!


Good thing it's not a NASCAR blog, you wouldn't have anything to post about. 88? J/K LOL
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598. 7544
colin begining to get new convection now lets see if it could maintain it
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Colin's on life support.


2010 so far is at 3-1-0, the last La Nina year and imo a good analog year 2007 at this point was at 3-0-0.

2007 eventually featured 15-6-2. Pretty active year, while most storms were weak look what happened with some of those storms. Dean and Felix, you know the story with them. You had Humberto, that sucker went from a invest to a Hurricane in 20 hours. You had Noel, the deadliest storm of the season killed 163 people. The season in total caused 3 billion dollars in damage, tame compared to most years and killed 394 people. The only reason that season is called average is because the US wasn't really touched, the Caribbean was ravaged that year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Is this a Global Warming blog or a Tropical Weather Blog? It's sometimes becoming hard to tell the difference. I wish we could go back to just having posts about tropical weather!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the way this look TS Colin will get better looking later tonight

1 there is a upper level anticyclone developing to TS Colin west

2 there is warmer SST to the west of TS Colin

3 the steering map shows that there are some weaker wind to the west of TS colin and TS Colin is heading WEST

so STOP RUSHING INTO RIP'S AND WAIT TO SEE THE FIREWORKS TONIGHT
That anticyclone is associated with PGI23L and not Colin. And even if there are warmer SSTs Colin will need to slow down a bit so it can get its circulation together. However, a slow down can be expected soon. Dry stable air is also inhibiting strong convection to fire. Several factors are going against Colin at the moment. I also have not seen anyone "RIP" it.
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594. 7544
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the way this look TS Colin will get better looking later tonight

1 there is a upper level anticyclone developing to TS Colin west

2 there is warmer SST to the west of TS Colin

3 the steering map shows that there are some weaker wind to the west of TS colin and TS Colin is heading WEST

so STOP RUSHING INTO RIP'S AND WAIT TO SEE THE FIREWORKS TONIGHT



agree
but still going for a bonnie track tonight will tell the story
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Things to note:

1.) If Colin degenerates, it will become a wave and track further south like the CMC is showing. It would then have a good chance at development off the East Coast and in the Bahamas region.

2.) There's a possibility of TD #5 or TS Danielle in the Caribbean early next week, but if it develops, it likely wont be a problem to the USA due to High Pressure in the Gulf steering it south.

3.) Models are coming onboard with the wave emerging off Africa and it needs to be watched very closely.

4.) The wave right behind Colin is not really organized, but it will have to be watched closely.
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at least you didnt poof me for saying that..

I've been posting here for 4 years. I have nobody on ignore. I'd just as soon see what they have to say. Even if it is silly...or worse.
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the way this look TS Colin will get better looking later tonight

1 there is a upper level anticyclone developing to TS Colin west

2 there is warmer SST to the west of TS Colin

3 the steering map shows that there are some weaker wind to the west of TS colin and TS Colin is heading WEST

so STOP RUSHING INTO RIP'S AND WAIT TO SEE THE FIREWORKS TONIGHT
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


Speaking of... what happened to presslord?
He is still at Portlight but stop posting here for political reasons.
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589. 7544
maybe the blob south of pr is eating up the dry air infront of colin which might help colin to hold together the dry air seems to be fading away on the wv if this happens and colin slows he just may have a shot imo i beleive it will

he looks to be be slowing down but still moving west right
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
need some action in the central GOM!!


The heck you say!


Its dry here in SE Texas Doug!!!!! water costs too much to keep everything alive... at least you didnt poof me for saying that..
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Quoting BoynSea:
559. BahaHurican 3:57 PM GMT on August 03, 2010


Had a lot of rain on Monday in North Abaco, and it may repeat today.

Umm, I'd rather have three or four Colins instead of the Frances or Jeanne thing.

Tru dat. I just keep hoping this constant troughiness in our area will fend off the systems instead of drawing them overhead.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
need some action in the central GOM!!


The heck you say!


LOL... We need that like we need another oil spill!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


First of all welcome to the blog. Second of all, yes I do. I think that Colin will probably die off today, and a weaker storm would tend to go more southward (I still think this storm is a fish storm, however but it does deserve to be watched closely)
Colin still appears to be embedded in the LLJ.
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Quoting hydrus:
The GFS has Colin at hurricane Strength off of the outer banks of the Pressolinas in a little over a week.


Speaking of... what happened to presslord?
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
need some action in the central GOM!!


The heck you say!


I second that!
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need some action in the central GOM!!


The heck you say!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, even if it doesn't develop it will just add to the heat buildup in the Caribbean and if it does it wouldn't be anything too strong.
The GFS has Colin at hurricane Strength off of the outer banks of the Pressolinas in a little over a week.Link....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Pretty much what we talked about last night, then.

So Colin looks like it may fizzle, our ACE for the season is still pretty low despite 3 named storms already..... I guess the season is going to be a BUST - A bust I tell u!

But SERIOUSLY.... lol


Actually thanks to Alex we're above average in ACE. Remember, this time last year our ACE was 0.000. Right now we're on pair with 2007 in terms of named storms.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting flhurricane:
hey everyone i have followed this blog for a wile and i just got a username. i noticed that the latest ngfld model run is taking a more southerly and westerly route. do u think the model is picking up on colin's recent encounter with dry air and increased wind shear and is predicting it to weaken?


First of all welcome to the blog. Second of all, yes I do. I think that Colin will probably die off today, and a weaker storm would tend to go more southward (I still think this storm is a fish storm, however but it does deserve to be watched closely)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting BahaHurican:
Pretty much what we talked about last night, then.

So Colin looks like it may fizzle, our ACE for the season is still pretty low despite 3 named storms already..... I guess the season is going to be a BUST - A bust I tell u!

But SERIOUSLY.... lol


Bummer .. it sure is dry here in se texas... need some action in the central GOM!!
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Quoting pub123:
Satellite data strongly disagrees with the earth-based readings, showing no record warming, indicating UHI is the earth-bound cause. There's also the fact that temps are being extended 1200 km (instead of a more reasonable 250 km) for the observation stations which is just plain dishonest.

Meanwhile temps are so low in Napa, heaters are being used to get growing temps up to necessary levels for the grapes. And south americans are dyingin in huge numbers from the extreme cold now being experienced.

In other words its all weather, not climate.


Always done that in Napa, ditto South America. Speaking of readings being extended huge distances, do you have a source, or are you just bored?
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