Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Levi, whats spinning off NC?


Looks like a weak surface low behind that cold front to the east.
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I noticed that spin off of the coast of NC, this morning but didnt pay no mind to it as it looked like an upper level low that would'nt do anything but spin, but it looks like its getting some convection wrapping near the center.....interesting.
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Colin just looks like a wave, not comparable to Tropical Storm Chris in 2006 because Chris had a much favorable environment and lost everything because of proximity to Hispaniola. I expect Colin to regenerate just northeast of the Bahamas and then threaten the US East Coast early next week as the 12z GFS shows a new high moving eastward will block his northward progression.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Just noticed that.. Good eye.
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Colin is going to be just another Tropical Storm eaten by a ULL! I wonder if they took all the ULL's this year into the Hurricane Predictions for the year!? At this rate we'll hardly have any hurricanes, anytime something develops it runs into a ULL and falls apart! Check out the water vapor of the Caribbean and Atlantic, ULL's everywhere!
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


It is INCREDIBLE the amount of suppression any serious discussion of climate meets now.

The hottest EVER recorded - records falling all around and criticism for even discussing it.
JFL, What I'm finding interesting about this wx in Russia is that the records being broken were set in the 1920s etc. That's 80 - 90 years ago. This suggests to me that there is some climatic pattern we haven't focused on which is coming into play.

I also would have expected the volcanic dust from the eruptions earlier this year to have impacted temps in the area by lowering them. Guess I was wrong.
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666. BDAwx
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmm.... somebody else mentioned that earlier... what r u thinking?


Its interesting to see it survive so well without decent convection. Plus its sitting over the gulf stream. So just in case shear decides to let up - I'm keeping an eye on it.
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04L/XX/XX
MARK FINAL
14.85N/50.21W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 3rd, with Video


Levi, whats spinning off NC?
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Is there a good site for reference material concerning high and low record SST's?
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Quoting WeatherMSK:
The thing I'm not so sure about is the strength of the system. Man there seems to be alot of sheer out ahead of this system.



Very true.. I see serious weakening ahead. Looks like it will not be able to wrap with the dry air in front and the upper level low to the north and west will consume whatever (convection) storm activity there is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
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T.S. Colin is having a hard time. He's currently plowing into dry air.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wow
Thats what i said..i had to look at a low cloud satellite to make sure it was real..lol
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Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 3rd, with Video
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Quoting isuxn2:


Left Caster


People like you that make remarks like that don't belong in this blog.
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X
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
Off to the races (work) you guys have fun :)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting P451:


What the hell is that thing spinning up off Wilmington, NC???????
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Latest GFS much farther west with Colin. Looks like models are moving left big time.


Left Caster
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The thing I'm not so sure about is the strength of the system. Man there seems to be alot of sheer out ahead of this system.
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Quoting SCwannabe:
Is this a Global Warming blog or a Tropical Weather Blog? It's sometimes becoming hard to tell the difference. I wish we could go back to just having posts about tropical weather!
I agree! This blog is sounding more and more like the Weather Channel (NBC) on Cable and Main stream Media, but how do we get the mojo back?
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Quoting BDAwx:


it is under 40kts of wind shear so probably no for now.


That would explain the lack of any convection, lol.
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Quoting FLdewey:


At least he's consistent. ;-)


I'm pretty sure I have been stating that the models would trend west for the last day and a half.... still don't trust the out to sea theory as I stated at the time either. That sounds consistent to me.
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Quoting P451:


Wow
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Must you scream all the time?


He has to shout so he can be heard above the rest of his other names:

jasoniscoolman10
jasoniscoolman2010x
jasoniscoolman2010xx
jasoncoolman2010xx

I imagine there has been a few I missed...

He's running a close second for different handles by the same person.
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Quoting BDAwx:
I dont know if anybody else noticed the swirls off of the NC coast : Link
Hmm.... somebody else mentioned that earlier... what r u thinking?
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642. 900MB
Quoting JFLORIDA:


It is INCREDIBLE the amount of suppression any serious discussion of climate meets now.

The hottest EVER recorded - records falling all around and criticism for even discussing it.


It's not that. It's just that the topic has been beaten to death and it instantly brings out the trolls. There are no deniers amongs the quality posters here.
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641. BDAwx
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Home-grown shenanigans?


it is under 40kts of wind shear so probably no for now.
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640. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well unfortunately, the point usually misses the intended audience.


Yes, very very unfortunate.
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Quoting will45:


CMC is closer than that


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Really Close!



CMC is closer than that
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Quoting jeffs713:

Its dry? The past month was the rainest July in recent history at IAH... I haven't had to water my grass (live in Tomball, TX) in over 3 weeks, and its growing like crazy.


well I have njot been so lucky up here in Willis.. I have not had any measurable rain on the north shore of Lake conroe in almost 3 weeks... It just seems to hit the lake and split and misses us..
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Quoting SCwannabe:
Is this a Global Warming blog or a Tropical Weather Blog? It's sometimes becoming hard to tell the difference. I wish we could go back to just having posts about tropical weather!
I've been on this blog for a long time, and to be honest with u, I don't think we've EVER had posts just about tropical wx....

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Quoting Jeff9641:
Latest GFS much farther west with Colin. Looks like models are moving left big time.
Uhhh, no. It recurves it like it has been doing for the past couple of runs. I'm surprised of how strong of a TS it is when it approaches the islands though.
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Really Close!

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the way this look TS Colin will get better looking later tonight

1 there is a upper level anticyclone developing to TS Colin west

2 there is warmer SST to the west of TS Colin

3 the steering map shows that there are some weaker wind to the west of TS colin and TS Colin is heading WEST

so STOP RUSHING INTO RIP'S AND WAIT TO SEE THE FIREWORKS TONIGHT
not buying this for a second
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


Its dry here in SE Texas Doug!!!!! water costs too much to keep everything alive... at least you didnt poof me for saying that..

Its dry? The past month was the rainest July in recent history at IAH... I haven't had to water my grass (live in Tomball, TX) in over 3 weeks, and its growing like crazy.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Latest GFS much farther west with Colin. Looks like models are moving left big time.


Hmmmm..... i would have never guessed...lol
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Quoting P451:
Not exactly the best environment here.

Good view there. u can see the ULL stripping both the E Car Twave and Colin of moisture...
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.