Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 725 - 675

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65Blog Index

Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Im not sure it really matters as long as it is weather related, I dont think you will get a ban for talking about it.


Actuall a 24 hr ban from here might be like being locked up with no cigarettes. You don't like it, but it does you good!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
is this suggesting that Colin breaks apart or curves back?

I am leaning more towards you theories right now.


I have no clue, just shows a plain map.. Though MiamiHurricanes09 and Levi are right in line with my forecasts, so I'm not alone on Colin affecting the Southeastern Coastline.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has Colin formed in new center at 15N 51.8W? Visible loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BTW Hi SJ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, SJ. Good to see u look in.

LOL I admit freely that I only read the section on Colin before I dived in.... however I didn't comment on the temp records until after I read the rest... lol

I bet lots of pple do that - comment 1st, read 2nd....


Im not sure it really matters as long as it is weather related, I dont think you will get a ban for talking about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is this suggesting that Colin breaks apart or curves back?

I am leaning more towards you theories right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Baha ;)

Actually, I look in fairly often...Have just held back on the posting lately. As usual, I'll be around if something really gets going.

Hey Flood, doing good...And yourself?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:


Please put the NAM away until the tropical season is over...Thanks for your cooperation...Signed The Other Models, minus the CMC...


LOL...

Hey, SJ, how are you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NC feature is the future ghost of colin! After it gets sheared apart....lol Yeah it will be interesting to see if Colin can hold together. How many think he can and how many think he will be ripped apart to an open wave?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Link

Reed are you seeing this?


Seeing what?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
GOODBYE TO TROPICAL STORM COLIN.


and to you jason, and to you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey, SJ. Good to see u look in.

Quoting Floodman:


I'm starting to wonder how many actually read the entry before they dive in...
LOL I admit freely that I only read the section on Colin before I dived in.... however I didn't comment on the temp records until after I read the rest... lol

I bet lots of pple do that - comment 1st, read 2nd....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Reed are you seeing this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Im a little confused....the NAM 850MB vorticity scan shows two systems? approaching the leewards and then its like cell division....the system splits or absorbs the other while curving back off towards Bermuda.

Is this really the NAM's scenario of Colin?


Feedback issues that splits the energy because the system is weak. Average the two areas out and you get the "real" position of the storm on the model. But don't use the NAM for the tropics.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting BahaHurican:
JFL, What I'm finding interesting about this wx in Russia is that the records being broken were set in the 1920s etc. That's 80 - 90 years ago. This suggests to me that there is some climatic pattern we haven't focused on which is coming into play.

I also would have expected the volcanic dust from the eruptions earlier this year to have impacted temps in the area by lowering them. Guess I was wrong.


Not enough ash was produiced and the ash that was prduced didn't gain enough altitude; it dropped out of the atmosphere relatively quickly...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hcubed:
Quoting JFLORIDA:

"...It is INCREDIBLE the amount of suppression any serious discussion of climate meets now.

The hottest EVER recorded - records falling all around and criticism for even discussing it..."

Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Now, don't get me wrong, but doesn't the new record have to be greater than the old record for it to be a NEW record?

Especially if the record is for "hottest EVER?

Just sayin...


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JFLORIDA:


It is INCREDIBLE the amount of suppression any serious discussion of climate meets now.

The hottest EVER recorded - records falling all around and criticism for even discussing it.


I just recorded the hottest temperature in my home EVER. Of course, I've only looked at the thermometer once so I'm not sure if that counts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
706. SLU
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Colin just looks like a wave, not comparable to Tropical Storm Chris in 2006 because Chris had a much favorable environment and lost everything because of proximity to Hispaniola. I expect Colin to regenerate just northeast of the Bahamas and then threaten the US East Coast early next week as the 12z GFS shows a new high moving eastward will block his northward progression.


If anything, it is very, very similar to TS Chris of 2000 in its struggles, track, intensity, structure and size.

Perfect analog for Colin.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Im a little confused....the NAM 850MB vorticity scan shows two systems? approaching the leewards and then its like cell division....the system splits or absorbs the other while curving back off towards Bermuda.

Is this really the NAM's scenario of Colin?


Please put the NAM away until the tropical season is over...Thanks for your cooperation...Signed The Other Models, minus the CMC...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JFLORIDA:

"...It is INCREDIBLE the amount of suppression any serious discussion of climate meets now.

The hottest EVER recorded - records falling all around and criticism for even discussing it..."

Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Now, don't get me wrong, but doesn't the new record have to be greater than the old record for it to be a NEW record?

Especially if the record is for "hottest EVER?

Just sayin...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
JFL, What I'm finding interesting about this wx in Russia is that the records being broken were set in the 1920s etc. That's 80 - 90 years ago. This suggests to me that there is some climatic pattern we haven't focused on which is coming into play.

I also would have expected the volcanic dust from the eruptions earlier this year to have impacted temps in the area by lowering them. Guess I was wrong.


On the latter, the Icelandic volcano did not throw enough dust and aerosols into the air to have an appreciable effect on temperatures. I haven't seen an estimate of any higher than 4 on the VEI, and is generally the cut-off for a "major" eruption. VEI 4 will be locally devastating in many instances, but further away the impact is usually less. In this case the location of the volcano was a major reason why it had an impact on Europe. VEI 6 is where you would typically expect to see climate impact, though some VEI 5 eruptions can.

VEI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TWC may be bad, but at least its founder has one thing right: he thinks that "Global Warming is a SCAM." And he is right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im a little confused....the NAM 850MB vorticity scan shows two systems? approaching the leewards and then its like cell division....the system splits or absorbs the other while curving back off towards Bermuda.

Is this really the NAM's scenario of Colin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i bet that is gonnna be a doozie lol
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting Floodman:


I'm starting to wonder how many actually read the entry before they dive in...
I'm not a betting man but I would lay a healthy sum on that wager.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Photobucket

What I feel will happen, and I've seen this with many storms getting sheared, Colin will make erratic movements to the west, won't even count a NW or SW slow movement while it's interacting with the TUTT. This is why the track goes bumpy in that area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
you too will...Just taking a short break from writing papers before I have to start studying for Prob & Stats test tomorrow. School has seriously cut down on the amount of time I can spend in here. Should be a little better once summer term is over though.


Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting zoic100:
I agree! This blog is sounding more and more like the Weather Channel (NBC) on Cable and Main stream Media, but how do we get the mojo back?


You can thank the blog author, Dr. Masters...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you too will...Just taking a short break from writing papers before I have to start studying for Prob & Stats test tomorrow. School has seriously cut down on the amount of time I can spend in here. Should be a little better once summer term is over though.

Absolutely not SQUAWK!!! Don't think I'll ever eat one of those things again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:


Don't think that's an upper level spin, but I could be wrong...Looks like there is an insane amount of shear over it. Cute spin though...


Hey buddy, can I interest you in some Krystals????? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SQUAWK:


3


LOL...that's about right
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
690. unf97
Quoting StormJunkie:


Don't think that's an upper level spin, but I could be wrong...Looks like there is an insane amount of shear over it. Cute spin though...



This from the Wilmington, NC NWS office in thier 9AM discussion:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR SHOW AN INTERESTING
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS THESE CLOUD TOPS ONLY HAVE A TEMPERATURE AROUND 5C...
INDICATING THE SHOWERS ARE NOT PENETRATING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND 650 MB ON THE MHX 12Z SOUNDING.


Right now they are analyzing that as just a low level swirl that is non tropical at this time. It is an intersting little feature to see on visual imagery though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherMSK:
Yeah your r

Yeah its a low level feature, non tropical. Could get some characteristics in the long term, but it will be swept out to sea before that time from the approaching front?


Front has already passed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hiya SJ good to see you on
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting SCwannabe:
Is this a Global Warming blog or a Tropical Weather Blog? It's sometimes becoming hard to tell the difference. I wish we could go back to just having posts about tropical weather!

It's ridiculous to talk about weather if one doesn't reference Climate Data. It's irresponsible to talk about climate without recognizing trends. It's silly to note a trend and not theorize about it.

Those who can't deal with a discussion tend to try to control the agenda.

Dr. Masters sets the agenda.

Tough luck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


I'm starting to wonder how many actually read the entry before they dive in...


3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:


Don't think that's an upper level spin, but I could be wrong...Looks like there is an insane amount of shear over it. Cute spin though...


Yeah ur right i think its a low level feature, non tropical. Could get some characteristics in the long term, but it will be swept out to sea before that time from the approaching front?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Its 850 vort. is comparable to Colin's...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


It shouldn't be that hard to tell the difference; just read the blog entry for a clue.


I'm starting to wonder how many actually read the entry before they dive in...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Surface prog has it as an ordinary low.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherMSK:
I noticed that spin off of the coast of NC, this morning but didnt pay no mind to it as it looked like an upper level low that would'nt do anything but spin, but it looks like its getting some convection wrapping near the center.....interesting.


Don't think that's an upper level spin, but I could be wrong...Looks like there is an insane amount of shear over it. Cute spin though...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting that the NAM still hasnt adjusted Colin and is flirting with the idea of a L system comming directly up from the Carribean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Non tropical low off the NC coastline, in no immediate danger of development into a sub tropical or tropical cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12Z GFS shifted westward
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wilmington radar not much moisture near the coast

Link
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

Viewing: 725 - 675

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.