Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting aquak9:
hi levi- I'm so glad you're here. I don't ask too many questions, so bear with me on this one:

Even if it turns into an open wave, even IF it only skirts way out offa the coast of Florida, will it be enough to generate some good wave action and churning at the NE FLa beaches?

I really wanna go treasure hunting along the beach for fossils and teeth.


Mmm....if it's a stronger system it might generate some swells, but if it stays weak then winds near Florida are probably going to be pretty light even if the system gets close. Based on the GFS's solution, I wouldn't expect anything more than normal on the wave-action.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting aquak9:
hi levi- I'm so glad you're here. I don't ask too many questions, so bear with me on this one:

Even if it turns into an open wave, even IF it only skirts way out offa the coast of Florida, will it be enough to generate some good wave action and churning at the NE FLa beaches?

I really wanna go treasure hunting along the beach for fossils and teeth.


You'll see a rise of 1-3 ft seas with a storm way off the coast. With it being a strong tropical storm.

Beach fossils and shark teeth you really need a storm to be very close to coast of making landfall to upwell the sands onto the beach. Even a strong tropical storm will bring things up from beneath the sand layer.

Venice beach after a storm is a great place to find megalodon teeth and gold & silver coins.
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link didn't work, eyewall. Maybe I'm not SUPPOSTA see it, hahaha
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26276
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Do you know how hard it is, not to say that you can find some of those right here, lmao.


yes, daytona, I know. But we have an AWESOME Plistocene bed right offa the coast up here, with loads of big teeth, but also MANY mammal fossils- mammoth, sloth, camel, mastodon. A good storm will churn up the bed.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26276
Cross D Ranch, Eunice, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 24 sec ago
102.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 21%
Dew Point: 55 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.97 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 101 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 11 out of 16

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Quoting aquak9:


uhm, link? i'm kinda link-deprived


Link
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769. unf97
Good afternoon aquak!
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Uh-huh. And what proof do you have to support your claim? (NOTE: research underwritten by any Big Oil/Big Coal company is invalid here, and for obvious reasons.)


Don;t even bother...this is another poster who subscribes to the "because I said so" scientific method
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Man, have you guys seen the forecasts for 2011 hurricane season???!!!! WOW!


I must have missed it I was too busy looking at 2012 forecast
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Quoting aquak9:
hi levi- I'm so glad you're here. I don't ask too many questions, so bear with me on this one:

Even if it turns into an open wave, even IF it only skirts way out offa the coast of Florida, will it be enough to generate some good wave action and churning at the NE FLa beaches?

I really wanna go treasure hunting along the beach for fossils and teeth.


Do you know how hard it is, not to say that you can find some of those right here, lmao.
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Out for a while, Colin may be a depression at 5 p.m. We'll see what happens.
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Off topic: BP has found a new and full proof way to seal that oil spill.....a My Little Pony Shower Curtain shoved into it.....it seems they found one on ebay, real cheap....from a seller in South Florida.....apparently the seller was trading up for a Bratz shower curtain in an effort to impress the ladies.....


Back to your previously scheduled blog........
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Sometimes watching these storms is like a football coach writting down a new trick play for his team.

Something like, ok - the center hikes the ball to the wr who will then throw it to the qb who will hand it off to the RB and quickly sneak it to the TE who will pretend to not have the ball while blocking for the RB.

ok too much caffiene....
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Don't look at the 12Z GFS when it transitions to lower resolution then.


uhm, link? i'm kinda link-deprived
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26276
hi levi- I'm so glad you're here. I don't ask too many questions, so bear with me on this one:

Even if it turns into an open wave, even IF it only skirts way out offa the coast of Florida, will it be enough to generate some good wave action and churning at the NE FLa beaches?

I really wanna go treasure hunting along the beach for fossils and teeth.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26276
Early afternoon all,

Woohoo, so far my forecast track and intensity (issued 1 AM EDT this morning) are holding up this morning for TD4/TS Colin.

If it degenerates into an open wave though, my forecast could fall apart. I see some speculation on where Colin is centered. I think its underneath the messy clouds tops Looks like a mess right now.
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Quoting aquak9:
739- northern eywall- thank you! that's what I want, a storm offa the coast, and I will gather shark teeth and fossils from the waves.

YAY!!!


Don't look at the 12Z GFS when it transitions to lower resolution then.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
2 NPR shows?


LOL...
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Quoting Levi32:


Looks like a weak surface low behind that cold front to the east.


A week low that is supposed to disipate today/tomorrow according to NOAA.
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Quoting Levi32:


Apparently....might be an overcorrection from its southerly runs which were too far south but we'll see. Notice it develops another system or two behind and keeps Colin pretty weak, so even if this does impact the US coast it shouldn't be too big of a deal from the looks of things.


The 12 GFS was also weak, looked like a strong thunderstorm off the coast. Have to wait and see on that.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
TWC may be bad, but at least its founder has one thing right: he thinks that "Global Warming is a SCAM." And he is right.


Uh-huh. And what proof do you have to support your claim? (NOTE: research underwritten by any Big Oil/Big Coal company is invalid here, and for obvious reasons.)
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JB's track ( i just watched his Big Dog video) has Colin pretty much following the left edge of the cone.
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Big differences between the BAM-D Forecast Track
models coming out now and the latest Official
NHC Forecast Track.

Bam D should be given more weight in my opinion
considering Colin is forecast to remain a weaker
than expected Tropical Storm.


Official Track ....


Bam-D Track ...

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Quoting Levi32:


So did I at first. We were looking at the mid-level center but it is trying to decouple and now we see the surface center popping out farther WNW.


This storm is fighting.
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Quoting Levi32:
Oh check it out for once the GFS is the only model with the right idea!

12z GFS Day 8:



Gonna leave in a bit, loved the video, you pretty much explained my forecast :P

I feel the TUTT will shear apart Colin, make erratic movements back and forth. I believe the remnants will end up near or at the Bahamas and then with the TUTT to the west, it steers north and strengthens back into Colin, effects the East coast with a possible landfall in NC or a swiping off of there to the Northeast Coastline. Of course this is a long shot lol.
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739- northern eywall- thank you! that's what I want, a storm offa the coast, and I will gather shark teeth and fossils from the waves.

YAY!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26276
Quoting Levi32:
Oh check it out for once the GFS is the only model with the right idea!

12z GFS Day 8:



LMAO the 12z GFS swings way left and the 12z CMC which was way left swings way right, LOL
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Levi, hey its me ... DestinJeff. I thought I didn't need to fly the SARCASM FLAG with you.


Was kind of attempting to fly mine alongside your's Jeff....guess it blew off lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting Floodman:


Not too bad, all things considered
2 NPR shows?
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746. unf97
Quoting WeatherMSK:
NC feature is the future ghost of colin! After it gets sheared apart....lol Yeah it will be interesting to see if Colin can hold together. How many think he can and how many think he will be ripped apart to an open wave?


I think Colin will weaken to a TD as it passes north of Puerto Rico. It may degenerate into an open wave but I think the warmer SSTs ahead of Colin will help sustain it just enough to keep it as a TD. However no question a hostile shear environment awaits Colin for sure by Thursday.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like the 12Z CMC got the memo on Colin.


Apparently....might be an overcorrection from its southerly runs which were too far south but we'll see. Notice it develops another system or two behind and keeps Colin pretty weak, so even if this does impact the US coast it shouldn't be too big of a deal from the looks of things.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting Levi32:
Oh check it out for once the GFS is the only model with the right idea!

12z GFS Day 8:



I dont like that idea Levi lol
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting aspectre:
613 nrtiwlnvragn "You have JB's date/timestamp latitude longitude intensity numbers?"

Nope. You offering? I mostly depend on snippets posted by others here from JoeBastardi's blog.


No I don't have them, just that you said his forecast was much better so I wanted to compare his positions with the NHC to judge myself.
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Quoting 900MB:


It's not that. It's just that the topic has been beaten to death and it instantly brings out the trolls. There are no deniers amongs the quality posters here.



I don't agree with that last sentence at all.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


This a big jump in only 2hrs. The NHC had it a 14.3 49.5 for the 11am advisory.


So did I at first. We were looking at the mid-level center but it is trying to decouple and now we see the surface center popping out farther WNW.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Looks like the 12Z CMC got the memo on Colin.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey Baha ;)

Actually, I look in fairly often...Have just held back on the posting lately. As usual, I'll be around if something really gets going.

Hey Flood, doing good...And yourself?


Not too bad, all things considered
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613 nrtiwlnvragn "You have JB's date/timestamp latitude longitude intensity numbers?"

Nope. You offering? I mostly depend on snippets posted by others here from JoeBastardi's blog.
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Well, shucks, I gotta go, just as the blog was getting cordial.... LOL

I'm going to update my blog today with an entry for the first decade of August, and I'll check in later to see how poor Colin is faring.

Seeya!
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Oh check it out for once the GFS is the only model with the right idea!

12z GFS Day 8:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting Levi32:


No, strong low-level flow is shearing the storm and exposing the center.


This is a big jump in only 2hrs. The NHC had it a 14.3 49.5 for the 11am advisory.
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Im wondering if Colin holds together enough that they dont cancel HH flight tomorrow
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting Levi32:


Ha, where?


Levi, you fell for that? I am surprised at you young man!!!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Man, have you guys seen the forecasts for 2011 hurricane season???!!!! WOW!


Ha, where?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
730. MahFL
Looks like a subtropical swirl to me.
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
04L (FOUR) Warning #05

By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of TUE 03 Aug 2010

2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
97W.INVEST
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Hey DBW, good to see ya.

Ok, back to school work. Y'all have fun in here and play nice! Catch everyone later.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Has Colin formed in new center at 15N 51.8W? Visible loop


No, strong low-level flow is shearing the storm and exposing the center.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Im not sure it really matters as long as it is weather related, I dont think you will get a ban for talking about it.


Actuall a 24 hr ban from here might be like being locked up with no cigarettes. You don't like it, but it does you good!!!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.