Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Hey there Danielle


hellooooooo...
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
3024. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of WED 04 Aug 2010

2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
99E.INVEST
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
97W.INVEST
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
90B.INVEST
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning/Evening

Wow, Colin went from the third named storm to not even trackin with the invests on the tropical weather page in less than 12 hrs. I thought it would take longer to downgrade since it is still so notable on the imagery.

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3021. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Drakoen:


12z coordinates say 17.8N 59.5W

Good morning
this is where i have it pegged

04L/REM LOW
MARK
18.37N/59.49W
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3020. 7544
colin numbers show a td again drake /?
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Looks like we'll get a recon today too into ex-Colin.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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New invest in the East Pacific


EP 99 2010080412 BEST 0 95N 945W 20 0 DB
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3015. Drakoen
Ex-Colin 11:45UTC

SAB: 1.5
TAFB: 2.0
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Good morning everyone I see we have two systems with potential over the next few days and the 12z Euro attempts to develop a tropical wave in 192 hours out or so.


06z GFS showed how things look in the EATL pretty well with the placement of the convection...and it forms a low out of it in 72 hours, and sends it north. Might be a weak TS Earl who knows?
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3011. Drakoen
Quoting MahFL:
Do we have a center for ex Colin ?


12z coordinates say 17.8N 59.5W
Quoting StormW:
Good morning Drak!


Good morning
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Morning All.

Interesting run from the NoGaps. If memory serves me correctly, it was the first to pick up on Jeanne getting stuck and not going out to sea.

And no, I am not saying it's going to FLA, lol.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
92L might have decent wind shear and steering ahead of it, it seems.
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I'm a little surprised at the lack of model support for 92L, given the very favorable conditions its in now and ahead.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
3007. 7544
dont think he would go that far west jason he may turn nw before that imo
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3005. MahFL
Do we have a center for ex Colin ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
Good morning everyone I see we have two systems with potential over the next few days and the 12z Euro attempts to develop a tropical wave in 192 hours out or so.
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3002. aquak9
whoa...seeing DocMaster's post is about as good as a shot of espresso.

G'morning zoo! and everyone else i've missed.
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Storm, so it looks like your path for ex-Colin is now east of the NHC last advisory, correct? I guess the eastern seaboard is for the most part in the clear whether it regenerates or not?
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3000. 7544
colin moves west and is blowing up may be come ts when the hh get in what time does it go today .
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Golf Club would be fine too... LOL

Morning gambler! Ill be playing next week in Tampa on vacation! (poker) Also the lightning weather has been tending towards tampa so I may be able to capture some great stuff next week!!!
Graphite Fly Rod Too. Why you always carry one shorter than you're buddies'.
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Hey there Danielle
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hey zoo good morning, quick question i thought you were keeping the google earth map with everyones location on it? i was there & then poof gone.. can you put me back on in key west thanks
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2995. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JeffMasters:


I'm waiting for the 10am EDT release of the CSU forecast.

Jeff Masters
thats this am i was expecting it not till mid afternoon doc do you think numbers are coming down in a big way or not so big way myself have been considering a 40 percent reduction in my numbers iam at 21 to 23 iam considering lowing it to 14 to 16
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2993. aquak9
2975- thank you Ike, as I just couldn't get into his main site.

had to stand about 3 feet away from the screen to read it, tho, hahahah
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Quoting msgambler:
I's called a long metal stick silly....LOL
When I worked at the one machine shop for a joke one of the guys put and add in the paper with another fellow's Phone # for Lightning Rod Recharging. (Butt of joke had just got a super duty portable welder and was taking in some side jobs since shop didn't do mobile but wasn't advertising out of respect for owner and sleep.) Couple of folks actually called.

Supposedly was a serious Old Con Job from back in the day when portable generator/welders first came out. Butt of joke was worried would get busted, called paper ASAP and canceled add. Raised cane! No one ever ratted that I know and there were enough suspects don't think he ever knew for certain.
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lol, we've all gone from blob watching to invest watching
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2990. Drakoen
Two systems to watch:

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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


not storm but, it was erroniously named 98L the next number in line was 92L so they changed it


I was thrown off on that too
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
Guess Dr. Masters does read some of our nonsense.

Good morning everyone - Baha check your mail for details on the coffee!
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2986. 7544
looks like colin is moving west now ?like strom w said it would hmmmm

looks like jeff is awake thanks dr m lol
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Quoting largeeyes:
Storm, why is this thing 92L and not 98L?


not storm but, it was erroniously named 98L the next number in line was 92L so they changed it
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Quoting largeeyes:
Storm, why is this thing 92L and not 98L?


92L is the next number in the sequence...98 is for the EPAC.
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2982. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/92/L
MARK
14.34N/71.49W
MOVEMENT W
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2976. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 8:52 AM EDT on August 04, 2010

Thanks; getting a little confused between the current motion versus the 850mb steering chart.
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2980. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting FLdewey:
Jeff must be sleeping in...



I'm waiting for the 10am EDT release of the CSU forecast.

Jeff Masters
Storm, why is this thing 92L and not 98L?
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12z SHIPS forecast for exColin now shows shear below 20kts for the next 120 hours...strengthens him to 75kts in 120 hours.
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2977. Drakoen
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2976. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Seems like the current preveiling steering currents, if I am reading the charts correctly, would take Colin's remnants towards Florida, unless, regeration of some kind were to occur..
its not going to fla right now it passing by the outer ne islands on a nw coarse
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2975. IKE
Quoting aquak9:


I got in about 20 minutes ago, it was still from yesterday. Maybe he's updating, cause I can't get in at all now.
Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.