Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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875. xcool
yep he doom
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874. BDAwx
Colin slightly reminds me of Irene 2005 and Chris 2006.
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So is Colin pretty much done?
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colins llc is becoming exposed on high res vis loop,just north of 15N,if he doesn't get his act together it might end up going right thru the northern antillies and over PR.....
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Fair enough!

:)
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610 P451 "Not exactly the best environment here. [graphic loop]"

I wonder... From those pictures, it appears that TSColin is not entraining dry air, that whatever steering currents are moving TSColin evermore westward are also pushing that dry air westward.
Could they push the dry air into that anticyclonic blob dominating the easternCaribbean? Suppressing it? And thus allowing TSColin smooth entry into the Caribbean rather than being forced north by that "anticyclone"?
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868. xcool
this have been one bored year .don'tpersonal attacks me .jmo jmojmo
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Quoting stillwaiting:
still think td colin w/skirt the northern antiellies and come within 100miles of PR's north coastline,after that point is when i believe colin could regenerate and stregthen,if he survives his fight w/mr TUTT,any forecast after 72hrs is highly uncertain and i think the nhc would agree!!!
to make your posts make sense, "w/" means with not will.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Hummm, interesting




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Quoting StormGoddess:

Did you mean that enough ice has melted to cause this for a bit this summer? That's what I meant by not a good sign.



Fair enough!
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I'm very pleased and not to sound condescending but I really like the challenges to the climate related posts on today's blog in that bloggers are asking as to where the funding originates.

Let's please not stop asking that very question whether it be big corporations or big governments or otherwise.
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still think td colin w/skirt the northern antiellies and come within 100miles of PR's north coastline,after that point is when i believe colin could regenerate and stregthen,if he survives his fight w/mr TUTT,any forecast after 72hrs is highly uncertain and i think the nhc would agree!!!
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Colin's low level circulation has become exposed NW of the convection. He has a very discernible circulation center, so he is not a tropical wave at this time. Coordinates are near 15N: 52W.
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.
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858. xcool
COLIN.bye poof lol
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 031746
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS OF VENEZUELA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Not a good sign, then.


How do you figure?
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:
The Gates Equation


A simple equation with a simple solution. The "P" in this equation must be drasticly reduced to solve the AGW problem. It is obviously the ONLY answer we'll ever have to the problem, but we need to get started ASAP before it's too late.
Brilliant!...LOL
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.
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853. PR51
Colin.... R.I.P.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Fair enough, then. That only leaves a few thousand climatologists; let's ask them what they think, shall we? ;-)


Are those climatologists funded by Big Government?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Aquak....did you see the link that I posted yesterday.....that included just about everything short of a pirate's map to unearth treasure on the beaches on NEFL?


can you post that again? plz
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Quoting SLU:
With Colin's LLC apparently at 15n, it will pass to the north of NOAA buoy 41040 located at 14.5n 53w. We will soon know if he still has a closed circulation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F


StormW's latest update has Colin at 14.1N, 50W. Yet, I also see what some of you are saying with what looks like a center along 15N. I see a "tubmleweed" motion in the messy clouds, which I thought was the center of Colin. But, there is also this center at 15N. Hmmm....
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UKMET Office lighting up the tropics, Colin + 2EP. NE CONUS still needs to keep a eye on Colin.



306

WTNT80 EGRR 031800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.08.2010

TROPICAL STORM COLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2010 14.6N 48.9W WEAK
00UTC 04.08.2010 14.9N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2010 16.1N 56.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.08.2010 17.6N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2010 19.5N 63.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2010 20.6N 65.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2010 22.2N 68.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2010 23.8N 71.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2010 24.8N 72.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2010 26.6N 73.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2010 28.8N 74.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2010 30.3N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2010 31.5N 76.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.4N 146.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.08.2010 10.4N 146.9W WEAK
12UTC 04.08.2010 10.5N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2010 11.0N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2010 10.7N 151.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2010 11.0N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2010 10.7N 153.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.08.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.7N 94.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.08.2010 13.7N 94.7W MODERATE
00UTC 05.08.2010 13.7N 96.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2010 13.7N 97.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2010 13.9N 98.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.08.2010 15.0N 102.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2010 15.0N 104.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.08.2010 16.0N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2010 17.3N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2010 17.1N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031657



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Quoting psuweathernewbie:


I think reed meant east.
if so, his scenario doesnt work
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


pffshhhh....pffshhhhh. This is Houston paging Colin, over....

pfffshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Colin, Colin, you there? Colin?

pffshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Folks, we may have lost Colin. Colin! Where are you?

Think I may have heard crickets chirping in the background. LOL
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Quoting StormW:


That we will!

Afternoon Levi!


Afternoon Storm!
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844. SLU
With Colin's LLC apparently at 15n, it will pass to the north of NOAA buoy 41040 located at 14.5n 53w. We will soon know if he still has a closed circulation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Wonder once the NW passage opens up what the deniers will say?


I'll say that NW Passage opened for few weeks this year.
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Quoting msphar:
Where's Colin now ? I think I've lost him.


pffshhhh....pffshhhhh. This is Houston paging Colin, over....

pfffshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Colin, Colin, you there? Colin?

pffshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Folks, we may have lost Colin. Colin! Where are you?
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Quoting stillwaiting:




the TUTT w/be to the east of colin when its near the bahamas though???,not over fl to the west,its a semi-perminant feature usually to the north of PR but it oscillates position...


I think reed meant east.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep won't be much left by then at the rate its melting nw passage may open up in another week and be open till late sept yes thats when a refreeze should start but maybe it will be first week of october before we start to regain the ice


Won't go below 2007.
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.
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Has the 12z GFDL come out yet?
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Quoting reedzone:


Gonna leave in a bit, loved the video, you pretty much explained my forecast :P

I feel the TUTT will shear apart Colin, make erratic movements back and forth. I believe the remnants will end up near or at the Bahamas and then with the TUTT to the west, it steers north and strengthens back into Colin, effects the East coast with a possible landfall in NC or a swiping off of there to the Northeast Coastline. Of course this is a long shot lol.




the TUTT w/be to the east of colin when its near the bahamas though???,not over fl to the west,its a semi-perminant feature usually to the north of PR but it oscillates position...
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Wonder once the NW passage opens up what the deniers will say?
A mind is like a parachute...It only works when open!
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Those cold cloud tops are crying for Colin to slow down!!
Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 479
831. unf97
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL STORM COLIN SYNOPSIS AUGUST 03, 2010 ISSUED 1:35 P.M.

I'll be back later to answer questions.


Storm thanks for the update on Colin! I appreciate your analysis and I agree with you that Colin may track more on the southern edge of the official NHC track forecast, at least in the short term.
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Quoting SWFLgazer:


As does research underwritten by Big Government.


Fair enough, then. That only leaves a few thousand climatologists; let's ask them what they think, shall we? ;-)
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Quoting Neapolitan:


I think Dr. Masters' point about the Urban Heat Island Effect is that it's not suspect: "Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible."

In re your comment: "...to date [I] have not seen any convincing arguement from anyone..." simply means you're not looking in the right places. There's convincing data everywhere...
Send me links to "convincing data," I'll be happy to review it in my spare time. Even in a small laboratory, there are many unseen or unnoticed variables, and often a lack of thorough history so please don't send me data that is merely months, years or even decades old; it's just not enough to make very expensive major social and political changes in our laboratory that is: the earth and our surrounding solar system.

Let's do our absolute best to keep our Earth clean, and try to use energy sources that are efficent and polute the least, and continue vigorously studying and monitoring our environment and climate. We will get this right as long we remember what Sherlock Holmes would say, "Don't jump to conclusions!"
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glad someone is watching that bad boy.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Colin is half exposed. He looks very interesting on the visible loop.
Not very interesting for my taste. He's got a bit of a wide stance.
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.
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Quoting Levi32:


They usually do during August but this should be a bit more than normal. We could see pretty amazing activity from August 15th through the end of September and even into October.


I would even consider November a month we see some tropical activity this year too.
Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 479

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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