Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


I think the LLC can clearly be seen on visual sats. at 14.2N/50W



you sure???,check w/the nhc for updated position of llc!!!
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Quoting Surfcropper:


Are you THE Senator Bentsen?


If he is he's speaking from beeyond the grave...
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Quoting Levi32:
12z Euro is left of the model consensus and takes Colin pretty close to Cape Hatteras:



A big if; I don't think Colin is strong enough to "bust through the TUTT"; your words not mine........ :)
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Is it just me or did the models just get closer to the east coast ?

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What do you think of this?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

If it's vertically stacked with convection it's still a Tropical Cyclone.


It's far from vertical stacked now.
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1019. Relix
Quoting palmasdelrio:


Hope you're joking. Even a minimal with a lot of rain can cause a lot of damage in PR.

It's moving blazing fast. It wouldn't be worse than some tropical waves that have passed before, trust me. If 2 inches of rain fell I would be shocked. That's why I say I wouldn't mind it.
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Quoting iammothernature:


I agree with him; we don't have enough resources on this planet to sustain our population (not to mention our population is growing, and our lifestyles are extremely wasteful and short term minded). However, I disagree with you, we don't necessarily have to start killing other humans. All we have to do is get stricter regulation on births, such that a couple cant have more than two children. That way even if every couple had two children (which wouldn't happen, because not everyone is fertile and not everyone chooses to have children), we would still have zero population growth. However, because not everyone would be able/choose to have to children (as already mentioned) we would actually have a slight population decrease over a long period of time.

Of course, our government would never do that. And if by chance they did do it, things happen so f---ing slow in our congress that it would already be too late, and we mind as well start killing each other.

But humans wont want to kill each other for the benefit of future generations. So, instead the future generations will be stuck without enough resources and will have to kill each other for the resources.

Basically, we either start regulating our births now (which wont happen) or, we wait too long and end up killing ourselves over the resources (which will happen, unless we all die from a nuclear war or asteroid first).


OMG really? What do you do to people who have more than 2 kids, take them and exterminate them? It wont work here, this is a free society, well mostly. We cant even keep illegal aliens from crossing the border and you think we can regualte the birth and mortality rates? LOL
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Quoting neonlazer:
Honk honk!!! Get out of my way ULL!!!!!

ROLFLMAO!!!!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


It Still is.
That black circle is the MLC.

Stormw's Blog:

"Both of these satellite channels (RGB and Visible)indicate that the center of Colin is further south than was the previous initial forecast point, and based on satellite, I am placing the center nearer to 14.1N;50.0W."




not according to the latest postion from the nhc,don't talk about,what you don't know about;)
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1015. SLU
The break neck forward speed could actually be helping to enchance the winds on the nothern side which might help COLIN to maintain tropical storm force winds but not a closed circulation. I foresee degeneration very soon if this continues.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A minimal can cause a lot of damage in PR if it's slow-moving, and Colin is moving very fast.


You're right on that. Let's hope it stays that fast.
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1013. Levi32
12z Euro is left of the model consensus and takes Colin pretty close to Cape Hatteras:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Quoting alfabob:
Vorticity is still stacked, I don't see a decoupled system. Around Dmin and there is still convection firing off. Colin is now entering warmer waters, and also seems to be slowing down. Won't know for sure until a few more frames though.

If it's vertically stacked with convection it's still a Tropical Cyclone.
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1010. divdog
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF develops the wave emerging off Africa starting at 144 hours, it develops it from the ITCZ. It showed this at 00z too, and yesterdays 12z. The wave train has started.




yea right
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Quoting palmasdelrio:


Hope you're joking. Even a minimal with a lot of rain can cause a lot of damage in PR.

A minimal can cause a lot of damage in PR if it's slow-moving, and Colin is moving very fast.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Colin's absolutely TRUCKING.
Honk honk!!! Get out of my way ULL!!!!!
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1006. alfabob
Vorticity is still stacked, I don't see a decoupled system. Around Dmin and there is still convection firing off. Colin is now entering warmer waters, and also seems to be slowing down. Won't know for sure until a few more frames though.
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1005. jeebsa
I shall rename Collin, The Little T.S. That Could.
Looks like a possible slow down in forward speed.
If that happens then the intensity models could be correct. I still think left side of N.H.C. current track. Should see a track change again here soon.
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
Colin's absolutely TRUCKING.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24449
1002. IKE
Quoting SLU:
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 52.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 30KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 46.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 25KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 42.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

The center is just NE of NOAA buoy 41040.

NOW MOVING AT 34MPH!!!!!!!!!


34 mph....yeah, it's over.

RIP Colin.
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Quoting Relix:
As I sidenote... I am kinda rooting for Colin to get its act together XD. Wouldn't mind a minimal TS here in PR haha


Hope you're joking. Even a minimal with a lot of rain can cause a lot of damage in PR.
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It looks like the GFS Shear model is expecting the shear to increase as it comes in contact with a upper-level low.

I wonder if Colin would make it.

Ships Intensity model is expecting to strengthen the fizzle.
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Colin Exposed
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You wish. This storm will most likely do as predicted and curve bettween Bermuda and America and head into the atlantic
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Global warming is affecting the entire Earth

Dr. Masters,

First of all, I'm sure you agree that the Earth has generally been in a warming trend since the last Ice Age. It is far from clear that human forcings are having a significant impact. It is also believed in the solar astronomy community that the next 20-40 years are going to show lower than normal solar activity, which has been associated with cooling trends in the past. It should also be acknowledged by the anthropogenic warming believers that, generally speaking, warm periods are more friendly to the human race than cold periods. Whether or not humans are responsible, we're actually better off in the current environment than in a significantly cooler one. Also it's worth noting that current CO2 levels are allowing ~40% faster plant (and crop) growth than what's regarded as the "baseline" level.

Given that the US is no longer the largest carbon polluter (that is now China), and that India is coming right along as a carbon consumer, there is no realistic way to achieve anything like the CO2 concentration goals that the AGW believers think is needed to make a measurable impact. In fact, the developing countries have stated in unequivocal terms that they will not be party to CO2 reduction efforts.

If no measurable impact is the result, why penalize the economy and consumers with regressive CO2 taxes? It's ironic that nuclear power, one of the only realistic ways to reduce CO2 concentrations, has been torpedoed by the environ-"mentalists".

I say let normal market forces prevail. The economic benefit of solar power is obvious, let private enterprise do as it's always done and innovate without heavy handed government intervention. Perhaps sanity will also win out and the groundswell of support for nuclear power will result in lots of modern, safe, efficient nuclear power plants as well.

I just want to address another area of your post:

Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures.

This is not entirely true. Siting problems have been noted with quite a high percentage of US weather stations. Since NOAA uses a "gridding" approach to calculating overall surface temperatures, those temperatures are skewed significantly. It's not clear to me why NASA would choose to stick to clunky old surface station measurements when it could be using shiny new satellite technology. ;-)

Finally:

Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

Ah, the famous "no peer reviewed article" attack. I'm sure you're aware of the Climategate e-mails that revealed a very non-scientific approach to quashing papers that didn't match the preconceptions of the AGW crowd. Lack of peer-reviewed articles is scarcely a convincing indictment. Perhaps in the wake of Climategate a more open minded approach will take root, one which embraces actual science rather than dogma.
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995. SLU
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 52.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 30KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 46.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 25KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 42.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

The center is just NE of NOAA buoy 41040.

NOW MOVING AT 35MPH!!!!!!!!!
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Lt. Commander Worf now confirming that Colin is officially at ramming speed. (To hopefully ram into the shear, as it were lol).
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Quoting srada:


NC


if it can get to the bahamas then it would be a close call for us
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12z ECMWF develops the wave emerging off Africa starting at 144 hours, it develops it from the ITCZ. It showed this at 00z too, and yesterdays 12z. The wave train has started.




Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24449
USM School of Polymers, Hattiesburg, MS:

Temperature: 101.0F
Dew Point: 78F
Heat Index: 120F
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COME ON COLIN YOU CAN DO IT
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It looks like it will shed that MLC

Colin needs to regen some convection at the center stat, otherwise it's toast.
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Quoting newenglandnative:
Colin needs to slow down and collect itself if he wants to become a hurricane. He's moving to fast right now and falling apart.


And also headed towards some bands of sheer in the range of 20-30 knots at the moment between it and the area north of PR......I think He has about run out of time.
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.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
here's the link to the high res vis loop,judge for your self ,but a keen eye can see the llc moving wnw away from the mid/ul level debris clouds



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2010 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 14:24:44 N Lon : 50:28:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -30.5C Cloud Region Temp : -40.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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985. Relix
As I sidenote... I am kinda rooting for Colin to get its act together XD. Wouldn't mind a minimal TS here in PR haha
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984. srada
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


who is our, which discussion is this from?


NC
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Little burst of convection near the COC. Let's see if Colin can build on that and moisten up the western edge a bit.
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Quoting SLU:
Station 41040

14.5 N 53.0 W


Conditions at 41040 as of
1750 GMT on 08/03/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F


NO CLOSED CIRCULATION


Thats pretty far west of the storm itself..the circulation isnt big.
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Colin needs to slow down and collect itself if he wants to become a hurricane. He's moving to fast right now and falling apart.
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If I remember correctly (going back to Sunday) the models said Collin (invest at the time) would be a hurricane by Today.
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979. SLU
If the circulation is closed then it's likely a very tight one.
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977. Relix
Guess that's that for now. Back to work!
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976. SLU
Station 41040

14.5 N 53.0 W


Conditions at 41040 as of
1750 GMT on 08/03/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F


NO CLOSED CIRCULATION
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TS Colin needs a ton of help from DMAX tonight
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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