Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1074. divdog
Quoting MississippiWx:
If the low level flow stays this strong, we're going to have this problem all year. No westerly shear is a good thing for development, but too much easterly flow can kill a system, just like now.
one of the la nina effects ?? just asking
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1073. will45
the only thing i think would help him is a stall somewhere around the bahamas but hopefully he will keep on trucking
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Quoting SLU:
The break neck forward speed could actually be helping to enchance the winds on the nothern side which might help COLIN to maintain tropical storm force winds but not a closed circulation. I foresee degeneration very soon if this continues.


Not so much. Colin based super close to the Mid Atlantic Buoy (to the South) and barely produced a spike in winds and wave heights.

In fact wave height wise it is nothing more then an enhancement in the typical trade wind swell.
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Colin is looking very rugged right now. It appears that its trying to generate convection around the nearly exposed center. I say expect a change in forecast cone more towards the south and east. Will it effect Florida? Im wondering the same thing.
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.
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1064. Levi32
18z early models shift left....BAM suite shows no recurve through the period with a straight NW motion. 12z UKMET and 12z Euro shifted west. 12z GFS shows impact on the North Carolina coast.

One can see how this still isn't a guaranteed fish...but doesn't look to be a big deal even if it isn't, as it should stay weak.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
Surely not moving west anymore, that's a solid WNW from the 11am pos
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Three days ago models were calling for a hurricane with favorable conditions all the way to the lesser Antilles. This is a good contrast with what is currently dying at 53W. Bonnie and Colin, pretty similar.
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If the low level flow stays this strong, we're going to have this problem all year. No westerly shear is a good thing for development, but too much easterly flow can kill a system, just like now.
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Quoting Levi32:


I think it's too early to make a call on whether he'll be absolutely nothing off the SE US. Conditions will slightly improve off the coast. He could still survive, but it's looking rather bleak. Overall by the looks of things he should remain rather weak during his lifetime.


And the ULL he is on a Kamikaze run towards is not helping either; this ULL appears to be pretty stationary is not getting out of the way at the moment.
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My apologies

AL, 04, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 524W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ,

ADT even had 14.2
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BUOYWEATHER HURRICANE AND TYPHOON TRACKING
10090807060504030201001015253035404550Swell Window:Southern California (156)Swell Window:Sebastian Inlet (108)Swell Window:Virgina Beach (157)Swell Window:Cabo (132)West Atlantic
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010-08-03T17:50:00UTC

WAVEHT 6.2 ft
DOMPERIOD 8 sec
AVGPERIOD 5.8 sec
WINDDIR 110 °(ESE)
WINDSPEED 7.8 kt
WINDGUST 9.7 kt
AIRTEMP 81.5 F
WATERTEMP 84.2 F
PRESSURE 29.85 in
1011 mb
MORE DETAIL
Can anyone explain why in this bouy, where the storm is, wind speed is 7.8 Knots?
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1056. Ossqss
This guy was a met at one time, sounds like he has a good proof of concept to me :)

Manmade Global Warming: The Solution -- Pat Sajak
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
1055. Levi32
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I hear Ya; I mentioned earlier below that he might make the Carolinas in a best case scenario (if he were able to maintain any semblance of organization) but I honestly do not think that we will ever get there because he is not strong enough at the moment to survive interaction with the TUTT and the associated dry colder air and sheer that comes along with it; would you agree with that?


I think it's too early to make a call on whether he'll be absolutely nothing off the SE US. Conditions will slightly improve off the coast. He could still survive, but it's looking rather bleak. Overall by the looks of things he should remain rather weak during his lifetime.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
1054. IKE
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF through August 13th....


Eastern ATL view...Link
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I am not ripping TS Colin til 11am tomrrow yes TS Colin might likely be downgraded to TD Colin but Colin might get the much needed help from D-MAX and maybe at that time TS/TD Colin could slow down
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Quoting Objectivist:
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth

Dr. Masters,

First of all, I'm sure you agree that the Earth has generally been in a warming trend since the last Ice Age. It is far from clear that human forcings are having a significant impact. It is also believed in the solar astronomy community that the next 20-40 years are going to show lower than normal solar activity, which has been associated with cooling trends in the past. It should also be acknowledged by the anthropogenic warming believers that, generally speaking, warm periods are more friendly to the human race than cold periods. Whether or not humans are responsible, we're actually better off in the current environment than in a significantly cooler one. Also it's worth noting that current CO2 levels are allowing ~40% faster plant (and crop) growth than what's regarded as the "baseline" level.

Given that the US is no longer the largest carbon polluter (that is now China), and that India is coming right along as a carbon consumer, there is no realistic way to achieve anything like the CO2 concentration goals that the AGW believers think is needed to make a measurable impact. In fact, the developing countries have stated in unequivocal terms that they will not be party to CO2 reduction efforts.

If no measurable impact is the result, why penalize the economy and consumers with regressive CO2 taxes? It's ironic that nuclear power, one of the only realistic ways to reduce CO2 concentrations, has been torpedoed by the environ-"mentalists".

I say let normal market forces prevail. The economic benefit of solar power is obvious, let private enterprise do as it's always done and innovate without heavy handed government intervention. Perhaps sanity will also win out and the groundswell of support for nuclear power will result in lots of modern, safe, efficient nuclear power plants as well.

I just want to address another area of your post:

Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures.

This is not entirely true. Siting problems have been noted with quite a high percentage of US weather stations. Since NOAA uses a "gridding" approach to calculating overall surface temperatures, those temperatures are skewed significantly. It's not clear to me why NASA would choose to stick to clunky old surface station measurements when it could be using shiny new satellite technology. ;-)

Finally:

Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

Ah, the famous "no peer reviewed article" attack. I'm sure you're aware of the Climategate e-mails that revealed a very non-scientific approach to quashing papers that didn't match the preconceptions of the AGW crowd. Lack of peer-reviewed articles is scarcely a convincing indictment. Perhaps in the wake of Climategate a more open minded approach will take root, one which embraces actual science rather than dogma.


Hmmm. You'e made a number of false assertions and assumptions that run contrary to current thinking, and all of which have been disproved by credible climatologists. I won't bore folks here by refuting every one; instead, I'll take on a sampling:

"It is far from clear that human forcings are having a significant impact [on the current warming trend." The "You Can't Prove It's Man-Made" argument. This one is viable only if one refuses to note the rapid increase in global temps completely concurrent with mankind's use of the atmosphere as a toilet.

"...we're actually better off in the current environment than in a significantly cooler one. Also it's worth noting that current CO2 levels are allowing ~40% faster plant (and crop) growth than what's regarded as the "baseline" level." The "Global Warming Will Be Good For Is" argument. Too silly to even go into, so I'll just say this: the massive percentage of the world's population that lives at or near sea level will probably disagree with this one.

"Given that the US is no longer the largest carbon polluter (that is now China), and that India is coming right along as a carbon consumer, there is no realistic way to achieve anything like the CO2 concentration goals that the AGW believers think is needed to make a measurable impact." The "Nobody Else Cares So Why Should We?" argument. Besides the fact that I always thought Americans were leaders in things such as this, you're wrong; China especially is working very diligently to control GW, as they realize the utter fallacy and complete unsustainability of the current fossil-fuel paradigm.

"...let private enterprise do as it's always done and innovate without heavy handed government intervention." The "Corporations Are Our Benevolent Overlords" argument. See "BP Gulf oil spill"; "Enron", et al.

"Siting problems have been noted with quite a high percentage of US weather stations." The "Data Is All Wrong" argument. First, what's a "high percentage"? Second, numerous detailed studies and tests have shown that the stations are far more accurate than the contrarians try to say. In fact, thsoe same studies show that, if anything, any inaccurate readings tend to be on the low side of actual.

"I'm sure you're aware of the Climategate e-mails that revealed a very non-scientific approach to quashing papers." The "Climategate Argument". A fading favorite of the denialists, as numerous independent investigations proved that, aside from finding that some scientists behaved in a sometimes boorish manner, there was aboslutely no hanky-panky. None. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada...

In short: you guys will have to do better.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13465
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Perhaps today IS a good day for Colin to die!

LMAO! That's great I love that. :)
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COLIN is showing a very poor appearance. I would say it is degenerating into a depression, as its convection is very poor.

Regards from Spain.
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Quoting Levi32:


Busting through the TUTT has nothing to do with track, but rather intensity.


I hear Ya; I mentioned earlier below that he might make the Carolinas in a best case scenario (if he were able to maintain any semblance of organization) but I honestly do not think that we will ever get there because he is not strong enough at the moment to survive interaction with the TUTT and the associated dry colder air and sheer that comes along with it; would you agree with that?
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.
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1044. srada
Quoting will45:


if it can get to the bahamas then it would be a close call for us


Yeah I think if this makes it into the gulf stream, this would be a womper for anyone on the east coast who is in the path..the models keep bringing it closer to us by the way..wouldnt be ideal for tax free weekend..LOL..
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Lt. Commander Worf now confirming that Colin is officially at ramming speed. (To hopefully ram into the shear, as it were lol).

Perhaps today IS a good day for Colin to die!
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its at 15.4N per the NHC,jeesh!!!!(thats for you TS,i know your watching)....
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With no LLC or closed Circulation I wonder how soon before the NHC turns off the respirator that Colin has been on since yesterday
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1040. IKE
12Z ECMWF through August 13th....
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1039. SLU
Quoting nash28:
Yeah the models are coming left, but there may not be anything left of Colin once it gets here. May not be anything more than a duck fart with a little spritzing:-)

34mph aint gonna cut it.


Hey wats up Nash. It's been years!!

15.4N 52.4W
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Quoting neonlazer:
Think he ment 14.2I think he meant 14.2N/46.8W


he said 14.2
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Colin:



Action:
Quote
| Ignore User




Haha..yep..thats him alright..
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1035. xcool
poor Colin
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1034. Levi32
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


A big if; I don't think Colin is strong enough to "bust through the TUTT"; your words not mine........ :)


Busting through the TUTT has nothing to do with track, but rather intensity. And yeah, I said it had to be a hurricane to do that, and it's not outputting any heat right now. It will get sheared pretty bad probably north of the islands. Possibilities for a rebound are there off the SE coast but this should remain a relatively weak storm through its lifetime by the looks of things.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Is it just me or did the models just get closer to the east coast ?




expect the models to trend to the south as colin remains weak thru 72hrs,heck i wouldn't be suprised if fl's east coast is in the "cone" come late week!!!
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1032. IKE


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Quoting IKE:


34 mph....yeah, it's over.

RIP Colin.


Cut the guy some slack Ike he might have a date with Danielle our next storm, he just needs to get some more convection first.
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Quoting stillwaiting:



you sure???,check w/the nhc for updated position of llc!!!
I think he meant 14.2N/46.8W
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Quoting Objectivist:
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth

Dr. Masters,

First of all, I'm sure you agree that the Earth has generally been in a warming trend since the last Ice Age. It is far from clear that human forcings are having a significant impact. It is also believed in the solar astronomy community that the next 20-40 years are going to show lower than normal solar activity, which has been associated with cooling trends in the past. It should also be acknowledged by the anthropogenic warming believers that, generally speaking, warm periods are more friendly to the human race than cold periods. Whether or not humans are responsible, we're actually better off in the current environment than in a significantly cooler one. Also it's worth noting that current CO2 levels are allowing ~40% faster plant (and crop) growth than what's regarded as the "baseline" level.

Given that the US is no longer the largest carbon polluter (that is now China), and that India is coming right along as a carbon consumer, there is no realistic way to achieve anything like the CO2 concentration goals that the AGW believers think is needed to make a measurable impact. In fact, the developing countries have stated in unequivocal terms that they will not be party to CO2 reduction efforts.

If no measurable impact is the result, why penalize the economy and consumers with regressive CO2 taxes? It's ironic that nuclear power, one of the only realistic ways to reduce CO2 concentrations, has been torpedoed by the environ-"mentalists".

I say let normal market forces prevail. The economic benefit of solar power is obvious, let private enterprise do as it's always done and innovate without heavy handed government intervention. Perhaps sanity will also win out and the groundswell of support for nuclear power will result in lots of modern, safe, efficient nuclear power plants as well.

I just want to address another area of your post:

Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures.

This is not entirely true. Siting problems have been noted with quite a high percentage of US weather stations. Since NOAA uses a "gridding" approach to calculating overall surface temperatures, those temperatures are skewed significantly. It's not clear to me why NASA would choose to stick to clunky old surface station measurements when it could be using shiny new satellite technology. ;-)

Finally:

Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

Ah, the famous "no peer reviewed article" attack. I'm sure you're aware of the Climategate e-mails that revealed a very non-scientific approach to quashing papers that didn't match the preconceptions of the AGW crowd. Lack of peer-reviewed articles is scarcely a convincing indictment. Perhaps in the wake of Climategate a more open minded approach will take root, one which embraces actual science rather than dogma.
Well written...thanks.
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1027. nash28
Yeah the models are coming left, but there may not be anything left of Colin once it gets here. May not be anything more than a duck fart with a little spritzing:-)

34mph aint gonna cut it.
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1026. xcool
poof he goo
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


I think the LLC can clearly be seen on visual sats. at 14.2N/50W



you sure???,check w/the nhc for updated position of llc!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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