Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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With no LLC or closed Circulation I wonder how soon before the NHC turns off the respirator that Colin has been on since yesterday. He is moving at 34 mph now and the cops just pulled him over and gave him a ticket for speeding and a ticket for pretending to be a tropical storm
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Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
Hey Reedzone. Real quick. It seems you, levi and StormW are on the same page. Any chance the Trough pulls out to quick and the Ridge builds further east blocking the north componet keeping it west into the Carib or Florida Straights?


There's always a chance, but Colin is moving fast, so I think up the East Coast is a good forecast for now, most likely just swiping the coastline.
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1172. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez, Levi, that map made me shudder when I saw where the 1016 hpa line is ....


LOL yeah I bet....season's just barely getting started.
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Hey Reedzone. Real quick. It seems you, levi and StormW are on the same page. Any chance the Trough pulls out to quick and the Ridge builds further east blocking the north componet keeping it west into the Carib or Florida Straights?
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1169. BFG308
Destin, you crack me up!

Everyone else, there IS a climate change blog.

Maybe, just maybe, a length limit could be placed on comments? Who needs 10000+ characters? That's not a comment that needs to be a personal blog post.
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.
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1167. tkeith
Quoting oracle28:
Benton, AR 107 degrees, 76 dewpoint, 125 heat index.
that's hot...
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Nope this is usually about the tropics blog from June til Nov. So the GW can find another blog.Some of the GW people come on here just to start crap. It's really funny. So back to the tropics.

So how is Colin doing? What is going on out the in the atlantic way some of the storms just can't make it and the kinda small. Is there another factor that we can't see or something?
sheri


I blame it on all the ULL's scattered across the Caribbean and Atlantic!
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Benton, AR 107 degrees, 76 dewpoint, 125 heat index.
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Ehh, not gonna argue pointless matters.. We agree to dissagree.. Colin looks horrible, should be a TD or open wave by 5 p.m. I'm not letting go of it until it has totally fizzled out. I still believe the remnants will end up in the Bahamas, or just east of there. My thoughts favor the GFS and EURO.
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1162. SLU
Quoting Eugeniopr:
SLU I am looking at the same bouy and no signs of TS there. probably as you mentioned winds are east, south east.


Yep...

The 25 - 35kts winds are going to pass north of the buoy. What the buoy needs to do is to show us westerly winds to confirm a closed circulation. The center is now due north of the buoy and the winds are blowing from the SE which means that there may not be a closed low there.

The NHC is likely to declare it an open wave or maybe go the way of BONNIE and keep the system as a TD just in case it redevelops since it is close to land.
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Quoting breald:
Hey, anyone know what happened to Storm Junkie? He had a great site with all the model links.
Link
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1160. Levi32
Quoting NASA101:


Levi:

Vorticity and convection on the increase in the area around 30-40 W below 10 N - what's your opinion Sir?


My current impression of it is that dry air pressing down from the north will be a big inhibiting factor, but it should be watched for development since most of the models amplify the thing pretty nicely during the next several days.
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Could one of the more knowledgable observers out there explain to me why, with the current NHC forecast on TS Colin....we see in the last wind probability chart an INCREASE in the probability of a major hurricane 5 days out? Albeit, it's a small increase, from 1% to 2%, but still......
.
.
.
.
Please, no wishers and dreamers answer this one. I'm like Joe Friday....just the facts please.
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Well Colin is still tracking westwards! I hope it gets pretty close to the Virgin Islands so I could at least track some rain bands! Lol
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Complex situation around colin
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Quoting Levi32:


NAO is going negative and the models show the Azores High weakening in as soon as 4 days. GFS ensembles all the way out to Day 15 show a high below 1024mb and freakishly low pressures in the tropics, 4-6mb below normal:



Geez, Levi, that map made me shudder when I saw where the 1016 hpa line is ....
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1154. breald
Hey, anyone know what happened to Storm Junkie? He had a great site with all the model links.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Or maybe you could start a Global Warming blog separate to the Wunderblog for Tropical Weather!


Nope this is usually about the tropics blog from June til Nov. So the GW can find another blog.Some of the GW people come on here just to start crap. It's really funny. So back to the tropics.

So how is Colin doing? What is going on out the in the atlantic way some of the storms just can't make it and the kinda small. Is there another factor that we can't see or something?
sheri
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


It's reasonable, could happen that way.
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1150. NASA101
Quoting Levi32:
Convection firing with the wave ahead of Colin is indicating the divergent flow aloft east of the upper low that could still help Colin make a convective comeback just before the islands, but we'll see. Colin's low-level center is racing out away from his mid-level center and will quickly end up between the two features. It may try to merge with the wave out in front and just leave his old mid-level circulation behind. Despite all this low-level wind, the environment is still favorable for a cyclonic circulation to survive, but strengthening is a different matter. The TUTT could blow this up convectively just like a tropical wave, but it will probably get sheared shortly after that.


Levi:

Vorticity and convection on the increase in the area around 30-40 W below 10 N - what's your opinion Sir?
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1149. unf97
Quoting Levi32:
Convection firing with the wave ahead of Colin is indicating the divergent flow aloft east of the upper low that could still help Colin make a convective comeback just before the islands, but we'll see. Colin's low-level center is racing out away from his mid-level center and will quickly end up between the two features. It may try to merge with the wave out in front and just leave his old mid-level circulation behind. Despite all this low-level wind, the environment is still favorable for a cyclonic circulation to survive, but strengthening is a different matter. The TUTT could blow this up convectively just like a tropical wave, but it will probably get sheared shortly after that.


Yep Levi that sums it up in a nutshell. It wouldn't surprise me if convection attempts to fire up again near whatever LLC is there. But I think Colin will struggle for most of its lifespan, similar to what Bonnie did recently.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Hey CRS. Looking at that "enhanced" wx coming off the W coast of Africa right now.... Hmmmmm.....
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Quoting reedzone:


Fake data?? My forecasts are based on pattern/steering, and some models.. Fake forecast? Then why are models trending towards my forecast runs then the NHC track? I don't just draw a line, I look at obs, highs and lows. I love what I do, it's a passion I have like music is.


You do a respectable job on this blog, Reed.
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1146. Wots
Quoting DestinJeff:


TS Mickey?


LOL!
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Quoting RuBRNded:


Thats the kiddie blog.


Taking my Xanax and heading there now, night all.
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Quoting FLdewey:


It's quite obviously a matter of being right or you wouldn't keep posting "look guys I'm right."

If you really believe it's a matter of trying to give people the right idea and facts on a potential storm then you should stop posting false data and fake forecast maps.

And I didn't say anything about JFV.


Geez get off his back, I guess you are NOT here to talk about Tropical Weather, you would just rather dog him all day about you being right, dah.
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Dont forget the blog for people not unlike myself who offer nothing more to this blog than banter, rudeness and BS


Thats the kiddie blog.
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Quoting FLdewey:


It's quite obviously a matter of being right or you wouldn't keep posting "look guys I'm right."

If you really believe it's a matter of trying to give people the right idea and facts on a potential storm then you should stop posting false data and fake forecast maps.

And I didn't say anything about JFV.


Fake data?? My forecasts are based on pattern/steering, and some models.. Fake forecast? Then why are models trending towards my forecast runs then the NHC track? I don't just draw a line, I look at obs, highs and lows. I love what I do, it's a passion I have like music is.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Don't hurt yourself Jesus.

Okay we need four blogs.

The original blog
The kiddie pool
The clothing optional blog
The global warming blog

Make it so Doc.


Great. Just great. a blog caster.
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1139. SLU
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


You did see my apology right?

Even ADT had 14.2


Yeah I did. No need to apologize. We're all here to learn. I learn something new everyday too.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Don't hurt yourself Jesus.

Okay we need four blogs.

The original blog
The kiddie pool
The clothing optional blog
The global warming blog

Make it so Doc.


Dont forget the blog for people not unlike myself who offer nothing more to this blog than banter, rudeness and BS
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Bonnie and Colin don't really want to develop and both seemed to want to die really fast unless Colin gets his act together there is no way he will survive the shear
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Quoting Levi32:
18z early models shift left....BAM suite shows no recurve through the period with a straight NW motion. 12z UKMET and 12z Euro shifted west. 12z GFS shows impact on the North Carolina coast.

One can see how this still isn't a guaranteed fish...but doesn't look to be a big deal even if it isn't, as it should stay weak.

Looks like one of them even hooks left just at the end there. A lot's going to depend on a) how strong the storm is at that point and b) how deeply that trough digs...
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1133. Levi32
Convection firing with the wave ahead of Colin is indicating the divergent flow aloft east of the upper low that could still help Colin make a convective comeback just before the islands, but we'll see. Colin's low-level center is racing out away from his mid-level center and will quickly end up between the two features. It may try to merge with the wave out in front and just leave his old mid-level circulation behind. Despite all this low-level wind, the environment is still favorable for a cyclonic circulation to survive, but strengthening is a different matter. The TUTT could blow this up convectively just like a tropical wave, but it will probably get sheared shortly after that.
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Just got back from school. I'm curious as to why Colin is doing this. I've looked at SSD Tropical Cyclone Formation and CIMSS products and it seems the dry air is not near the COC and off to the north, and shear is 5-10 knots.








What is causing Colin to fall apart? I mean, shear and dry air aren't the only factors of course. According to SHIPs the SST's right now under Colin's center are 28.7 degrees Celsius. 700-500 mb relative humidity is 62, which is still pretty moist. (i know I already mentioned dry air) What's causing Colin to fall apart? Is it because of its fast forward motion?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


OMG really? What do you do to people who have more than 2 kids, take them and exterminate them? It wont work here, this is a free society, well mostly. We cant even keep illegal aliens from crossing the border and you think we can regualte the birth and mortality rates? LOL


No, you just tax the hell out of people who have extra children. Like China. If you "accidentaly" get pregnant or get raped, there is always abortion.


Quoting StormGoddess:

"Mother Nature" would definitely know already that this could all be easily well balanced out, without any interventions from humans whatsoever. So since this is obviously not the case, I will say that there is not a population problem, there is a pollution problem. Only a small percentage of the Earth's landmass is actually populated at the present time. We have now found out how to green the deserts using various agricultural methods. There is plenty of room for everyone, and more. Many people live in the cities in the U.S. at the present time where the population is too high. This gives the impression to millions of people crowded in cities that the entire planet is overpopulated, which just simply isn't true.

Im not saying there isn't enough space, there is lots of space to inhabit. Im talking about resources, right now we consume more than we produce. Here is a quote from this siteLink:

Quoting Link:

Global Footprint Network calculates nature's supply in the form of biocapacity, the amount of resources the planet generates each year, and compares that to human demand: the amount it takes to produce all the living resources we consume and absorb our carbon dioxide emissions. Earth Overshoot Day marks the day when demand on ecological services begins to exceed the renewable supply.
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Looking at the models they're doing a repeat of Colin. CMC and ECMWF show a disturbance developing from the ITCZ starting in 144 hours.
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Quoting Stormridr911:

Well, you know what they say..."If nuts could fly, this would be an airport!"


LMAO!
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1127. fmbill
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Collin may end up so weak that it just floats over Florida in a few days.


You are probably right.
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1126. Wots
mmm...


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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah a little north of Jax but yes it does take it that way drifting WSW....showing it getting caught under the ridge. The pattern in there is extremely fragile...it could turn out or get suck and meander around. Either way, the GFS is showing how close this could get to the coast and that it could still be a system that impacts the US.

12z GFS Day 9 hugging the coast of Georgia:



You da man. Thanks
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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