Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1225 - 1175

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65Blog Index

Theres a good bit of evidence that its open... but I do not think the 5 PM advisory will be the final advisory... knowing the NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SpideredipS:
Ayo dat boi Colin be gettn all weak n whatnot he aint even gonna make da Matthew Stafford Homer Simpson scale and everything so. And ayo Sheri who is you be thinkin you is? Shoot, I'd love to seent you in Compton wolkin da screets lyke me.

Spider out.


Anyone care to join the ! line here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SpideredipS:
Ayo dat boi Colin be gettn all weak n whatnot he aint even gonna make da Matthew Stafford Homer Simpson scale and everything so. And ayo Sheri who is you be thinkin you is? Shoot, I'd love to seent you in Compton wolkin da screets lyke me.

Spider out.


Any body else having trouble understanding him?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SpideredipS:
Ayo dat boi Colin be gettn all weak n whatnot he aint even gonna make da Matthew Stafford Homer Simpson scale and everything so. And ayo Sheri who is you be thinkin you is? Shoot, I'd love to seent you in Compton wolkin da screets lyke me.

Spider out.


What language are you using?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1218. Levi32
Quoting asgolfr999:
ok lets here it, who wants to tell me where the current "coc" such as it is, is for Colin right now?


Here:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
1204. mikatnight

What of the programs the payroll tax currently supports? They desparatly need reform and reducing thier revenee only makes it much, much more difficult.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11222
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...LITTLE ROCK RECORDS THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE SINCE AUGUST 2000...

AT 221 PM...THE TEMPERATURE AT LITTLE ROCK ADAMS FIELD REACHED 107
DEGREES. THIS SET A DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE CALENDAR
DAY AUGUST 3RD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 104...WHICH WAS SET IN 1987.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
there is no more centerof tropical storm colin at 5pm its will be a open wave its will be call tropical wave at 5pm.


No, it won't
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1212. bwi
Been watching the eastern Caribbean wave. Doesn't look like much from above, but winds seem to have gone pretty light in the Netherlands Antilles. Pressures around 1013 down there though, still pretty high. Winds spiked a little up at buoy 42059 earlier; pressures pretty high there also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
With no LLC or closed Circulation I wonder how soon before the NHC turns off the respirator that Colin has been on since yesterday. He is moving at 34 mph now and the cops just pulled him over and gave him a ticket for speeding and a ticket for pretending to be a tropical storm


that is funny..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Who asked about StormJunkie? He was in the blog earlier today, says he's heavy into some studies but will be looking in when things get busier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok lets here it, who wants to tell me where the current "coc" such as it is, is for Colin right now?

maybe system center would be a better term
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oracle28:


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KARBENTO8


You missed my point, that data is from a Personal Weather Station (PWS) NOT and official weather station.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Could one of the more knowledgable observers out there explain to me why, with the current NHC forecast on TS Colin....we see in the last wind probability chart an INCREASE in the probability of a major hurricane 5 days out? Albeit, it's a small increase, from 1% to 2%, but still......
.
.
.
.
Please, no wishers and dreamers answer this one. I'm like Joe Friday....just the facts please.


I might be that the 1% was actually 1.4% and the 2% is actually 1.5%. So the change is due to rounding, more than an actual doubling of the chances, just my guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wny so serious?


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1144. FLdewey 3:44 PM EDT on August 03, 2010

You are being too hard on Reed as he is just expressing his opinion which is allowed on here......Rather than attack him, come back with some reasoned weather related data and comments....That's why we are are; hard to take you seriously between those attacks on folks and the Avatar pic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Colin reminds me of Ana of 2009.... wheres Bill?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Could one of the more knowledgable observers out there explain to me why, with the current NHC forecast on TS Colin....we see in the last wind probability chart an INCREASE in the probability of a major hurricane 5 days out? Albeit, it's a small increase, from 1% to 2%, but still......
.
.
.
.
Please, no wishers and dreamers answer this one. I'm like Joe Friday....just the facts please.


The location-specific probabilities and the maximum wind speed (intensity) probabilities are based on errors during recent years in the official track and intensity forecasts issued by the NHC.

Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11222
BTW, reed, thanks for NOT quoting FLdewey....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bouy 41040, Still quiet with TS over it. I think Colin is almost out of business for now.
Hopefully
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
too me Colin looks like a open wave
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
1195. will45
Quoting breald:
Hey, anyone know what happened to Storm Junkie? He had a great site with all the model links.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1144. FLdewey 3:44 PM EDT on August 03, 2010

You are being too hard on Reed as he is just expressing his opinion which is allowed on here......Rather than attack him, come back with some reasoned weather related data and comments....That's why we are are; hard to take you seriously between those attacks on folks and the Avatar pic.


That's right....I am here to learn...God forbid, I would say the wrong thing...I'm in the Medical Field...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NEXT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Time to go. Have to go buy a "serious" avatar.


Wny so serious?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How many storms that got downgraded to open waves have ended up hitting the USA ? Is it just Andrew and Katrina ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 69Viking:


According to TWC the current Temperature there is 102 with a Heat Index of 109, hot but not that hot.


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KARBENTO8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry about the double post....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Nope this is usually about the tropics blog from June til Nov. So the GW can find another blog.Some of the GW people come on here just to start crap. It's really funny. So back to the tropics.


Umm...did you not happen to read the entire blog topic?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
1144. FLdewey 3:44 PM EDT on August 03, 2010

You are being too hard on Reed as he is just expressing his opinion which is allowed on here......Rather than attack him, come back with some reasoned weather related data and comments....That's why we are are; hard to take you seriously between those attacks on folks and the Avatar pic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oracle28:
Benton, AR 107 degrees, 76 dewpoint, 125 heat index.


According to TWC the current Temperature there is 102 with a Heat Index of 109, hot but not that hot. Personal Weather Stations (PWS) linked to the Weather Underground aren't a good source of accurate conditions in most cases.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


What do you think of this?


you ought to consider using a transparent background on your text boxes. Other than that it's great!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


It's not a matter of being right, just stating that the out to sea scenario may not happen, at all.. This may degenerate into an open wave and then possibly regenerate into a storm off the East Coast.. It's a matter of trying to give people the right idea and facts on a potential storm. I'm not another JFV, you keep bashing everything I say, that's not fair.
I'm still waiting for Dewey to post something that actually comments on the WX, rather than on other bloggers.

"Please do not engage in personal attacks", dewey; it's not nice, and I see mothernature is in the room - u could get zapped...

U're not always right, reed, but u do try to stay on topic. Kudos.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting oracle28:
Benton, AR 107 degrees, 76 dewpoint, 125 heat index.
Wow! That's hot enough to drive one crazy. Why, men are going to start lying down with animals, and cousins...oh, wait...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1176. breald
Quoting RuBRNded:
Link


Awesome!! Thanks
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303

Viewing: 1225 - 1175

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
53 °F
Overcast