Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting aquak9:


you keeel'd us.


LMAO
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Look at that Ocean Heat Content between hours 18-60




* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922010 08/04/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 59 64 68 72 75 75
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 59 64 41 40 43 43
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 52 62 41 42 51 61

SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 6 3 10 5 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -2 -4 0 -4 -2 -3 2 -4 0 2
SHEAR DIR 277 251 191 199 260 262 288 257 330 280 310 270 304
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 157 156 158 158 155 161 152 147 149 152 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 158 157 156 155 149 153 145 138 140 141 139
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 11 10 12 10 12 10 12 9 14 11
700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 64 66 64 65 68 65 66 64 61 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3
850 MB ENV VOR 70 74 69 54 38 33 15 17 5 8 0 -12 -14
200 MB DIV 18 40 29 16 10 20 -2 20 8 16 4 12 8
LAND (KM) 207 333 325 256 213 265 273 290 60 -134 107 345 218
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.9 22.9
LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.9 75.3 76.7 78.0 80.4 82.7 84.7 86.9 89.2 91.4 93.5 95.6
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 61 68 85 100 109 81 96 106 74 23 3 49 44

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 35. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 34. 39. 43. 47. 50. 50.

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 08/04/2010 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)



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3073. GetReal


IMHO, given the current conditions, more attention should be given to the developing system in the central Caribbean, and less attention paid to the struggling remnants of Colin.... At least for the next 72 hours....
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Still Here?

Whats up?


Just that the posts seemed to had stopped. Thought there was a new blog
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Quoting amd:


It's a weak Upper Level Low. If it doesn't move, it will effect the potential for 92L to further organize.


Don't think so, very little shear over 92L right now and a anti-cyclone over it giving it ventilation.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Today is CSU'S updated outlook i think its probable they will drop there numbers a bit. Old colin appears to have a flared up a bit last night but it wont matter now as a mid-level low could drop southeast in the bahamas later tonight/tommorow morning and will help to induce southerly flow and recurve this bug pretty quickly.
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Quoting breald:


Why would they down grade it yesterday and fly into it today? Is it organizing again that quickly?
1) It was no longer a closed low; they pretty much had to downgrade it. 2) They do see some potential to regenerate, and since that potential puts x-Colin in a much better position to impact land, especially the CONUS, they see the viability of checking it out.

BTW, any plans on the board to fly 92L today?
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


my real name!!!


Nice, if Danielle is a wicked storm, you might regret it, I know a girl named Katrina and people relate to the storm when they meet her. By the way, she is just as wicked as Katrina was. LOL
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3067. aquak9
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Where did everyone go?


you keeel'd us.
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Quoting amd:


It's a weak Upper Level Low. If it doesn't move, it will effect the potential for 92L to further organize.


Thank you amd.
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Deep convection firing off again in 92L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
StormW,

I see from this steering map:


that there is still a huge weakness to the NW of ex-Colin, but he still seems caught in the western movement patten. Even at below tropical storm strength, do you think the models will confirm with the north turn?

Quoting StormW:
img src="Photobucket
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futur invest on the 30-35W
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Is that your real name, or are you saying hi to 92L?


my real name!!!
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
New invest in the East Pacific


EP 99 2010080412 BEST 0 95N 945W 20 0 DB
Was expecting this one. It's the Twave that was in the GOM yesterday.
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RL Colin looking healthier than at this time yesterday, while 92L seem awful chipper:



Source
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13531
3057. 7544
starting to get convection around the spin colins making a good am come back may see it back to a td soon as it moves further west .

should we see a left shift on the models next run too
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Where did everyone go?
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When is Jeff Masters going to go on vacation again so we will know when we will really have something to watch ?
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3053. amd
Quoting TampaBayStevo:
Good Morning,

Can some of you more experienced weather watchers please tell me if this is a low pressure center forming directly South of Western Cuba?

Readily seen on the latest water vapor imagery


It's a weak Upper Level Low. If it doesn't move, it will effect the potential for 92L to further organize.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


hellooooooo...


Is that your real name, or are you saying hi to 92L?
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Quoting aquak9:


LBAR- laughter, beer, and ribs


I'll drink to that
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3049. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
You can see the circulation easily on this microwave imagery:



Still intact...
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Quoting Drakoen:
WxLogic, Colin is at 17.8N 59.5W


At those coordinates, it's almost due SE from here(35N 77W). South of Southeast from Hatteras.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
3046. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
WxLogic, Colin is at 17.8N 59.5W


Yeap... but it was interesting to notice a low level swirl with associated convection ahead of the main energy.
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3045. aquak9
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


ROLL TIDE --- Hope the LBAR is wrong


LBAR- laughter, beer, and ribs
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3044. Drakoen
You can see the circulation easily on this microwave imagery:

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3043. 7544
thanks drake
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Ah, you're right. It is trending pretty close to their Trop Pts. now that I got it to load. Will be interesting to watch.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
3040. Drakoen
Quoting 7544:


is that a ts numbers


Enough for a TD if there is a closed circulation.
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3039. Drakoen
WxLogic, Colin is at 17.8N 59.5W
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3037. 7544
Quoting Drakoen:
Ex-Colin 11:45UTC

SAB: 1.5
TAFB: 2.0


is that a ts numbers
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


ROLL TIDE --- Hope the LBAR is wrong
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3034. WxLogic
Given the current location of the low level VORT:



and the current steering at 700MB to 850mb:



I would lean towards a W to WNW (at times) track of the remnants. Since current shear is not favorable I will doubt that a decent development of ex-Colin would materialize too quick, but should get better in 2 days or so.

I've also noticed a low level circulation which I've highlighted:



This circulation is moving almost due West while the bulk of the 850MB energy is lagging behind it and being enhanced by the ULL to its NW. In my opinion this is expected under an environment of increased shear due to 92L to its SW and the ULL to its NW.

I would expect further models changes as to the location of TC genesis (to be further west) as they get the shear iron out.
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3033. intampa
good morning.. been following this blog for years. my first post. i have seen the occasional post indicating some people think the season is a bust already based on the storms we have seen so far. unfortunatly many people here in tampa bay feel the same way. all my friends and co-workers are saying the same thing. everyone feels its a hype for insurance companies etc. lets hope there right because many of them, when they here mention of a storm, roll there eyes and comment that its just weather hype. hopefully nothing sneaks up on us this year because im afraid many people in may area may be caught off guard.
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3032. Drakoen
MIMIC-TPW shows ex-Colin's spin is increasing:

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3031. breald
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like we'll get a recon today too into ex-Colin.


Why would they down grade it yesterday and fly into it today? Is it organizing again that quickly?
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Quoting JeffMasters:


I'm waiting for the 10am EDT release of the CSU forecast.

Jeff Masters


I woulda hit snooze until 9:55 if I were you in that case....
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
Good Morning,

Can some of you more experienced weather watchers please tell me if this is a low pressure center forming directly South of Western Cuba?

Readily seen on the latest water vapor imagery
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3026. Drakoen
AL, 92, 2010080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 725W, 25, 1009, DB
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Hey there Danielle


hellooooooo...
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.