Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Latest COAMPS 120 hours


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
1323. IKE
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.
......


RIP.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Think Colin is done for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1321. SLU
...RAPIDLY MOVING COLIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


no surprises there
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5259
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...RAPIDLY MOVING COLIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
....RAPIDLY MOVING COLIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1317. will45
Quoting BahaHurican:
Thanks.

I notice 3 cat 5's, all of which affected land; a storm that hit JAX as a cat 3, and about 1/2 the storms going out to sea....


im prob only one here who witnessed Hazel lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1316. SLU
Quoting breald:


Considering, I live on the coast and lived in Fl, that was one of the worse storms I experienced.


Very bad storm. Isabel in 2003 took and almost identical path too.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5259
1315. Niedjav
RIP COLIN... COLIN WAS ALIVE 12 HOURS OR LESS...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wdtcnewsonlinewx:


It's on Colin's forecast page. It's historical tracks.
Thanks.

I notice 3 cat 5's, all of which affected land; a storm that hit JAX as a cat 3, and about 1/2 the storms going out to sea....
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1312. Drakoen
Colin getting closer to the weakness that would allow the system to move more to the WNW:

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Quoting Neapolitan:


Umm...did you not happen to read the entire blog topic?


Yeap I read it so what? He put a article about it, probably because Collin isn't doing much and to keep u GW people happy. but it's ok cause soon it will only be all about the tropics and not GW.There's another blog that just talks about the GW crap. It really don't matter GW people just run it in the ground they want u to think there way and that isn't gonna happen.

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3678
Have a great day everybody! Check back later.
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I'll put this out here again, for those who might doubt that this season is going to be active.

2007 at this point had 3 very weak systems, Andrea, Barry, and Chantal. 3-0-0. Season ended up with 15-6-2, with 2 Category 5 hurricanes that made landfall at that intensity. Just like in 2007, things are about to pop.
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1307. breald
Quoting SLU:


I remember it too. It was a very bad storm.


Considering, I live on the coast and lived in Fl, that was one of the worse storms I experienced.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
1306. bassis
Go away for two days and find Collin. Looks a little exposed right now. Ya'll must not have been playing very nice with all the comments that have been removed
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1305. jeebsa
When will the wind shear become more favorable for development? And what are the chances, if any of Collin reorganizing? Mostly everyone here seems to have written him off. I want to save the responses and see what the outcome is. I guess you can say this is a fun test on forecasting .
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1304. SLU
REPOST FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWING WHY THE FORMATION OF COLIN COULD OPEN UP THE FLOOD GATES:


The disturbance behind TD #4 has persisted all day and has started to develop some convection and vorticity. It needs to be watched closely as well as the next wave to emerge off West Africa by tomorrow (today) which has good model support to become a tropical cyclone later this week.

Generally, when one wave develops, one needs to keep and eye on the next few waves following the strengthening tropical cyclone. The developing system indicates that the environmental conditions are great for development and therefore the next few tropical waves stand an equal chance until the overall conditions become hostile again.



This explains why Cape Verde-like storms come in clusters and those clusters are generally more pronounced in neutral and weak to moderate La Nina years.

For example:

David, Frederic and Gloria (1979)

Allen and Bonnie, then Earl, Frances and Georges (1980)

Emily, Floyd, Gert, Harvey and Irene (1981)

Cindy, Dennis and Emily (1987)

Helene, Isaac and Joan (1988)

Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Hugo and Iris (1989)

Gustav, Hortense, Isidore, Josephine and Klaus (1990)

Bret and Cindy (1993)

Humberto, Iris, Karen and Luis (1995) - one of the most classical parades in modern history.

Edouard, Fran, Gustav and Hortense (1996)

Bonnie and Danielle, then Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Lisa (1998)

Cindy, Dennis and Emily, then Floyd and Gert (1999)

Alberto, Chris, Debbie and Ernesto, then Isaac and Joyce (2000)

Chantal, Dean, Erin and Felix, then Iris and Jerry (2001)

Isidore and Lili (2002)

Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl and Lisa (2004) - a very deadly wave train all within six weeks

Emily and Dennis (2005)

Florence, Gordon and Helene (2006)

Karen and Melissa (2007)

Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Josephine (2008)

Ana and Bill (2009)

Based on that, should we expect Colin, Danielle, Earl and Fiona?
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5259
1303. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ECMWF caught Colin 240 hours. Conditions will become more favorable for development by next week or so, especially out by Africa. The wave train has begun.


The old and new GFS have been giving hints at some serious fireworks as we near mid-August.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5259
Quoting BahaHurican:
How'd u access that map? I've been wandering the site like a dodo trying to find the climo maps....


It's on Colin's forecast page. It's historical tracks.
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Quoting TexasGulf:


Reported. NO Politics, please. This is a tropical weather discussion board.


I have to reiterate, you can’t discuss solutions for problems – including Global Warming – without politics. Politics is not a dirty word. It’s how things get done. It’s how the American System works, and has worked, for over 200 years.

I believe one of the reasons Masters keeps mentioning GW – outside of the sadistic pleasure he gets from watching people tear each other limb from limb – is to discover valid points made by the opposition, and to discuss and argue them out. Most people are looking for the Truth. Convenient or otherwise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Lots of hype this season, and not alot of results. But, it is early yet.


Recheck your statement.
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Lots of hype this season, and not alot of results. But, it is early yet.
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Quoting thermoclined:
Maybe, but I'll believe it when I see it. The MDR seems like the main dissipation region lately!


ECMWF caught Colin 240 hours. Conditions will become more favorable for development by next week or so, especially out by Africa. The wave train has begun.
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Quoting BahaHurican:


Wonder if they're still gonna fly Colin tomorrow....


They flew two planes down to St Croix today.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
1295. SLU
Quoting breald:


I remember that storm very well. It hit Raleigh pretty hard. Very unexpected.


I remember it too. It was a very bad storm.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5259
Quoting tropicfreak:


kinda like Danny a year ago?


Yeah pretty similar...Danny was SE of an upper trough which eventually sheared him apart.
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too me this Center of are new name strorm is now a open wave i dont even see a spin any more on the IR
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z ECMWF shows things might pop next week with the possibility of two Cape Verde systems in 6 to 10 days.
Maybe, but I'll believe it when I see it. The MDR seems like the main dissipation region lately!
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Wonder if they're still gonna fly Colin tomorrow....
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Colin- got a bit ahead of himself. At that speed the LLC is a dead man running. The remaining MLC will most likely make it into the Northern Leeward Islands by Thursday. Unless a new LLC forms, this will de downgraded in the next 6-12 hrs. The next wave has plenty more moisture to work with than Colin and would be worth watching.
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12z ECMWF shows things might pop next week with the possibility of two Cape Verde systems in 6 to 10 days.
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1287. breald
Quoting SLU:


MH FRAN 1996



I remember that storm very well. It hit Raleigh pretty hard. Very unexpected.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
1286. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Center clearly exposed




I see it now at 15.8N and 53.2W.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Hi Baha,

I saw your earlier...

I am watching.
The Noise to signal ratio is quite high here today... so I am in and out.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting atmosweather:


There's no downcasting going on...it's what can be seen on visible imagery. The LLC is completely exposed and is racing WNW to NW-erly away from the mid level energy. In fact, the bulk of the convection to the NNW of the system is actually just from the diffluent flow aloft produced by a tropical wave to the W of Colin. As Colin keeps moving closer towards the upper level trough to its W, it will continue to be decoupled and disorganized.


kinda like Danny a year ago?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1281. Drakoen
Colin is moving faster the NHC predicted and is to the east and north of the forecast points.
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1280. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ECMWF shows 3 systems on the 12z.

Colin, of course. A TD or a TS at around 51W at 216, and a TS just off Africa at 240.


The formation of Colin may very well open the floodgates.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5259
Quoting alfabob:
How is Colin decoupled? I see an intensifying 850 - 500mb vorticity right on top of it. I still think too many people are downcasting this thing. Give it 12 more hours, and then you may begin the downcasting.


There's no downcasting going on...it's what can be seen on visible imagery. The LLC is completely exposed and is racing WNW to NW-erly away from the mid level energy. In fact, the bulk of the convection to the NNW of the system is actually just from the diffluent flow aloft produced by a tropical wave to the W of Colin. As Colin keeps moving closer towards the upper level trough to its W, it will continue to be decoupled and disorganized.
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Center clearly exposed


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
1277. SLU
Quoting wdtcnewsonlinewx:
Does anybody know what that storm is along that red line going into Wilmington, NC was?


MH FRAN 1996

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5259
Quoting mcluvincane:


This coolman Guy has some serious issues. Its kinda scary.


He types BESIDE the image.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1204. mikatnight

What of the programs the payroll tax currently supports? They desparatly need reform and reducing thier revenee only makes it much, much more difficult.


Merely pointing out other points of view. The crux of the matter is the necessity to work together.

Quoting StrndedInStPete:
Mikeatnight: This is a weather blog. Political content of any sort is not welcome here. Please, there are very few places where you can escape it and one of them used to be here. Please refrain.


Sorry St. Pete, I recommend you hide my posts, that way you don't have to see 'em. I would argue however, that the subject of GW is not only weather-related, it is also once again a subject of the blogs author, Dr. Masters. There is of course, no way to remove politics from any GW solution proposition.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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