Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
Now we'll see a million posts the rest of this week about it regenerating, etc., etc., etc.......in a few days....and look out east coast of the USA!

And just to prove it (lol)




Quoting largeeyes:
Chance of a hurricane have dropped to the single digits, but NHC thinks it will be back to TS....

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Colin is temporarily dead, there's a possibility of him regenerating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3.0 earthquake 10 miles ESE of Clinton LA on 8/1. Man it's so hot that 8 streets in New Orleans have buckled. Tired of these 115 degree heat indicies!!
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


Ugh, it's usually like that.. with some people.


Ike is cool, I understand why he doesn't put faith in any storm. If you went through 2 massive storms in the past, you'd probably be the same way. Ike probably cannot take another Hurricane, too much pressure. What boggles me is that he even RIPs storms that won't even effect him.
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1371. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
Kinda strange with Colin.


Ya think?
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Isn't 4 days an awfully long time for a remnant low to just hang around?
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
I WAS RIGHT ITS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW...I WIN THIS TIME AROUND THE NHC TELL ME THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPERN ANYHOW.. I AM BIG WINNER..

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

Jason, First of all, you're not a winner, you're a troll. Second, it's not an open wave, it's a remnant LOW.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
1368. Levi32
Quoting SLU:


They have changed the format as of this season. All decayed systems are now called post-tropical and not extra-tropical.


I was speaking about them still giving forecast points and then calling for regeneration at the end. I have not seen that before where they actually officially forecast regeneration and still give a 5-day cone.
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1365. ssmate
Well, it looks like Colin and Brett Favre decided to retire on the same day. I have a feeling though that Brett will regenerate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Now they are thinking an East coast hit!
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Fiona is a name this year for a hurricane? Wasnt Fiona like a ogre in the Shrek movies?

I can hear the weatherforcasters now talking about Hurricane Fiona....nice.



That was mentioned the other day by someone who wrote..

"Fiona will be an ogre of a storm."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1361. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
Can't remember seeing this before in an NHC discussion....


THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


They have changed the format as of this season. All decayed systems are now called post-tropical and not extra-tropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


You really don't believe anything will ramp up this season don't you? I'm giving Colin a good chance for regeneration after it reaches the Bahamas. NC and northward may need to eye this for now.


It's his opinion though and it is his right to keep it.
Colin does have a chance of regenerating, but for now.. Colin's dead.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Fiona is a name this year for a hurricane? Wasnt Fiona like a ogre in the Shrek movies?

I can hear the weatherforcasters now talking about Hurricane Fiona....nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1358. Patrap
2 hrs ago..

NOAA: Global Warming "undeniable"

Global warning is "undeniable" says a new report published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which looked at 10 climate indicators and concluded they "all tell the same story."

"People have spent thousands of years building society for one climate and now a new one is being created - one that's warmer and more extreme," the NOAA report states.

The 10 indicators included shrinking glaciers, melting spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, declining sea-ice in the Arctic, sea-surface temperature, higher air temperature over land, air temperature over oceans, humidity and temperature in the troposphere, and ocean heat.

The NOAA report was released during a week when, faced with the specter of a filibuster, U.S. Senate leaders abandoned efforts to pass a comprehensive clean energy-climate bill.

Climate reform legislation did pass the U.S. House of Representatives last summer, against fierce opposition from Big Oil, the coal industry and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

In the Senate, however, it faced opposition from Republicans and Democrats from coal and oiul producing states.

The NOAA report was compiled by investigators from 48 different countries. It noted that each of the preceding three decades was hotter than the decade before.

The 1980's was the hottest decade on record - prompting initial alarm about global warming - only to find temperatures increasing every year during the 1990's. The warming continued into the 21st Century.

Temperatures increased between 2000 and 2009, with the first half of 2010 the warmest on record.

"Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common . . . There is now evidence that more than 90 percent of warming over the last 50 years has gone into our oceans," said Deke Arndt, manager of the NOAA Climate
Monitoring Branch and co-editor of the new report.

Extreme weather conditions have been part of the trend.

Pakistan has just experienced its most intense Monsoon rains on record. Last year, floods in Brazil left 376,000 people homeless. Record heat waves led to furious fires last year in Australia, and this year in central Russia.

In reaching their conclusion, scientists used data from weather satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, buoys and ships.
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Quoting reedzone:


You really don't believe anything will ramp up this season don't you? I'm giving Colin a good chance for regeneration after it reaches the Bahamas. NC and northward may need to eye this for now.


Ugh, it's usually like that.. with some people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Yeap I read it so what? He put a article about it, probably because Collin isn't doing much and to keep u GW people happy. but it's ok cause soon it will only be all about the tropics and not GW.There's another blog that just talks about the GW crap. It really don't matter GW people just run it in the ground they want u to think there way and that isn't gonna happen.

sheri


You're wrong Sheri; the Doc put those items about the warming in there because he feels it is a subject worth talking about and information that needs to be discussed. Where this thing goes off the rails are the fanatics from both camps that can't leave the subject alone and run out of smart things to say so they end up calling each other names in here
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Went from a predicted strenghtening to no longer being covered in 1 advisory....

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Now we'll see a million posts the rest of this week about it regenerating, etc., etc., etc.......in a few days....and look out east coast of the USA!



You really don't believe anything will ramp up this season don't you? I'm giving Colin a good chance for regeneration after it reaches the Bahamas. NC and northward may need to eye this for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1352. Levi32
Cone now clearly threatening the US, coming closer to my ideas:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1350. OneDrop
Quoting cchsweatherman:
On RGB satellite imagery, you can still see the surface circulation approaching 16N and 53.5W. Tropical Storm Colin definitely has become much less organized and may have degenerated into a tropical depression now, but since there still remains a surface low, I don't believe that Colin has degenerated all the way to an open tropical wave.
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I am still not sure why this one was upgraded in the first place. They should have waited for recon. Now time to closely watch the Carib system :)
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Me neither Levi...an official intensity forecast calling for regeneration? That's a pretty bold call to make IMO.
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1347. xcool


models back to west
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting 786:
I usually lurk but I have to say this, I think its admirable despite the slack Dr. M gets on the blog that he persists on relaying the ugly truth of GW...someone has to do it because unfortunately we do need to make changes and I am sure he hopes that through educating people on this blog some may strive for change in hopes of a better future.

The funny thing is denying GW is denying
yourself a secure future because no money in the world can reverse the damage done and the suffering that will result...promoting GW is promoting change in irreponsible, greedy and self centered habits for the survival of humans along with countless other species whose fate we are selfishly sealing...yes there are climatological changes in the Earth's atmosphere but we are "creating" a climatological change (yes man-made climate change through shear malignant consumption and poor methods of energy creation with long term consequences) which is incompatible with human life. Plain and simple if you don't clean up your act because you dont believe the obvious the rest of us will be stuck cleaning up after you.

Here in Cayman a distressing amount of coral has been bleached, we are also one of the top three low level costal regions which will be under water possibly within this centuary should sea levels continue to rise...if the majority stay in denial then that will be an inevitable fate, if it isn't already. The facts are plain to see, open you eyes.

The sad thing is although Cayman will be one of the first to suffer the Island has a horrendous carbon footprint for such a small place, does not recycle, had a dump 60 feet high, and uses dirty diesal to supply energy...


Felt like global warming here in Fl last Jan. when the 1st week of the month, we didn't have one night where it was warmer than 18 degrees.

*Poof*
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1412
Quoting IKE:


One thing it could be called is...covering your backside.


Levi, was about the post the identical post. It's a rememnant low until day 5 and back to a Trop Depression. Never heard of such a forecast.
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Colin is temporarily dead, there's a possibility of him regenerating.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
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Interesting on the Discussion is the intensity forecast.. 120 hours out it goes from REMNT LOW to Tropical Depression. They think it might regenerate.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
1340. IKE
Quoting Levi32:
Can't remember seeing this before in an NHC discussion....


THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


One thing it could be called is...covering your backside.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chance of a hurricane have dropped to the single digits, but NHC thinks it will be back to TS....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:
5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 3
Location: 15.8°N 53.8°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 35 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb


Can you pass the barbecue sauce for my crow? I'm sure other would like some to :P
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1337. IKE
Now we'll see a million posts the rest of this week about it regenerating, etc., etc., etc.......in a few days....and look out east coast of the USA!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1336. 786
I usually lurk but I have to say this, I think its admirable despite the slack Dr. M gets on the blog that he persists on relaying the ugly truth of GW...someone has to do it because unfortunately we do need to make changes and I am sure he hopes that through educating people on this blog some may strive for change in hopes of a better future.

The funny thing is denying GW is denying
yourself a secure future because no money in the world can reverse the damage done and the suffering that will result...promoting GW is promoting change in irreponsible, greedy and self centered habits for the survival of humans along with countless other species whose fate we are selfishly sealing...yes there are climatological changes in the Earth's atmosphere but we are "creating" a climatological change (yes man-made climate change through shear malignant consumption and poor methods of energy creation with long term consequences) which is incompatible with human life. Plain and simple if you don't clean up your act because you dont believe the obvious the rest of us will be stuck cleaning up after you.

Here in Cayman a distressing amount of coral has been bleached, we are also one of the top three low level costal regions which will be under water possibly within this centuary should sea levels continue to rise...if the majority stay in denial then that will be an inevitable fate, if it isn't already. The facts are plain to see, open you eyes.

The sad thing is although Cayman will be one of the first to suffer the Island has a horrendous carbon footprint for such a small place, does not recycle, had a dump 60 feet high, and uses dirty diesal to supply energy...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So Colin is no more?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1334. PR51
COLIN, officially dead...RIP. Let's see what happened with the next waves...I really doubt about the numbers for this season...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see Colin regenerate in a few days.


I got an email from the NHC that said the same thing.... J/K LMAO
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1412
1332. Levi32
Can't remember seeing this before in an NHC discussion....


THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Could see Colin regenerate in a few days.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
1329. xcool
rip
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
1328. Levi32
THE CENTER OF COLIN PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE WOODS HOLE NTAS BUOY
ABOUT 15Z...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND A
SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. HOWEVER...NEITHER THAT BUOY NOR THE
NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41040 REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTING A CLOSED
CIRCULATION...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. BASED ON THIS...COLIN HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL
AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.
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Quoting jeebsa:
When will the wind shear become more favorable for development? And what are the chances, if any of Collin reorganizing? Mostly everyone here seems to have written him off. I want to save the responses and see what the outcome is. I guess you can say this is a fun test on forecasting .


According to the image below, Colin--or what's left of him--will be passing through an area of decreasing shear tonight, but then tomorrow and tomorrow night he's expected to encounter shear in the 30-40 knot range...and that's strong enough to rip apart even a big storm, much less an anemic, barely-circulating blob. However, if--and that's a big if--Colin stays south of his predicted path, he'll avoid the worst of the shear. (Though that would take him into or near Hispaniola...and that would be death of a different sort.) In short, things aren't looking good for the little guy... :-(

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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Yeap I read it so what? He put a article about it, probably because Collin isn't doing much and to keep u GW people happy. but it's ok cause soon it will only be all about the tropics and not GW.There's another blog that just talks about the GW crap. It really don't matter GW people just run it in the ground they want u to think there way and that isn't gonna happen.

sheri


Well put Sheri!!
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1412
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.