Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Recheck your statement.


No doubt, Alex was a bruiser. TD2 crapped out, Bonnie was a dud, and now it looks like Colin will feel the shear. It just seems like it has been very hard for anything to get traction and build this season. But, it IS early.
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Boys and Girls, Now I Tell You, This Is The Story We Need To Discuss, Cuz It Is Going To Be Big, And Big For The U.S.!
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Colin was under 5-10 kt shear, why it RIP?? (but it will come back as TD in 5 days)
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
Did ex-Colin make the record books for being one of the fastest moving tropical cyclones?
\

Not even close: 1987's Hurricane Emily was clocked at 65 mph (100 km/h) during the end of her lifce.
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1420. Ossqss
Did any of you read this? If you did, you would at least understand where the continued information is coming from and its history vs. current use. This is number crunching, not interpretation. The numbers and samples tell the tale.

"• Problems with GHCN, such as sampling discontinuities and contamination from urbanization and
other forms of land use change, will therefore affect CRU, GISS, and NOAA. Decreasing quality
of GHCN data over time implies decreasing quality of CRU, GISS and NOAA data products, and
increased reliance on estimated adjustments to rectify climate observations."

http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/surfacetempreview.pdf
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Well put Sheri!!


PanhandleChuck-Thank you.
So I see everyone saying Collin is dying. Does anyone think he will reintensify? I see the models are saying out to sea more likely. It's just strange how little the storm is, I wonder if all of them will be this little this year?
Sheri
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Quoting largeeyes:
Isn't 4 days an awfully long time for a remnant low to just hang around?
How long did Karen in '07 hang around? Some of them do go on for a while....

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1417. IKE
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


2010 isn't missing anything and it isn't possible to have too much of something. Bonnie had a ULL follow her around and Colin's forward speed killed him. Alex didn't have either and became a pretty impressive hurricane for the month of june.


It is according to the pre-season predictions. This was suppose to be the near perfect set up. Sorry...it hasn't happened...yet.

One out of 3 by Aug. 3rd, with what I've read about 2010...that's way under.
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1416. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...Levi, do you have anything that shows clearer surface steering? Because looking at the 850-700 and the low level wind product from CIMSS, I didn't see anything with a flow that would push the LLC in almost a direct NW motion like that




VIS LOOP


It's just following the wave axis northwest of it. Colin's center, if it's still definable, may yet take a very slight westward bend before committing to a NW bend. I'm interested to see if it catches up to the thunderstorms in front of it along the wave axis and tries to reform under the divergent flow of the TUTT, although it would be shearing it at the same time.
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probably just me but hasnt the Bamm models gone more west at end of their runs?? Well, if colin regenerates by that time
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#1385 -

For more information, read Floodman's new book, "Everything You Wanted to Know About the Name Fiona - But Were Afraid You'd Kill Yourself if You Found Out"
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


2010 isn't missing anything and it isn't possible to have too much of something. Bonnie had a ULL follow her around and Colin's forward speed killed him. Alex didn't have either and became a pretty impressive hurricane for the month of june.

Alex also killed 51 people, caused 1.29 billion in damages, paralyzed Mexico's 3rd largest city, and has a medium-high chance at retirement.
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
it's a remnant LOW THAT MEAN IS GOING TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE SOON BY MORNING IS WILL BE OVER FOR REMNANT LOW..ITS WILL HAVE NO MORE LOW AT ALL WITH ALL THIS DRY AIR AROUND IT..ITS OVER.


It's possible that it may re-generate back into a Tropical Depression, as said by the NHC.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Wind speed probabilities are really telling here. Hurricane + TS probs go over 50% @ 72 hours. Disipated never goes over 16%. This table pretty clearly shows they have no idea what's going on.
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Come on Danielle!!!!!!!!!
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I wont be making a 3rd run until of IF Colin regenerates back to a depression. Just speculation right now.
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True Hurricane12. Guess they had been bored, until Bonnie..
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Did ex-Colin make the record books for being one of the fastest moving tropical cyclones?
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Quoting StormW:


I can't either.


Any thoughts on why it's moving this fast?
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Quoting IKE:


We've already had one that did and killed quite a few people.

As far as season predictions...throw em out the window. This season has not done as predicted. Yes...the heart of the season is ahead, but 2010 is either missing something or has too much of something.

That's 2 tropical storms that peaked at 40 mph and died within a day or 2....out of 3.


2010 isn't missing anything and it isn't possible to have too much of something. Bonnie had a ULL follow her around and Colin's forward speed killed him. Alex didn't have either and became a pretty impressive hurricane for the month of june.
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Quoting IKE:


We've already had one that did and killed quite a few people.

As far as season predictions...throw em out the window. This season has not done as predicted. Yes...the heart of the season is ahead, but 2010 is either missing something or has too much of something.

That's 2 tropical storms that peaked at 40 mph and died within a day or 2....out of 3.


Ike, I wasn't upset, it was just a question. After going through Ivan and Dennis, 2 massive storms. I understand why you don't put much faith in tropical systems. I still find your posts accurate.
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1399. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


I was speaking about them still giving forecast points and then calling for regeneration at the end. I have not seen that before where they actually officially forecast regeneration and still give a 5-day cone.


oh that .. well yeah .. that's a first
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Quoting reedzone:


You really don't believe anything will ramp up this season don't you? I'm giving Colin a good chance for regeneration after it reaches the Bahamas. NC and northward may need to eye this for now.
The NHC is officialy calling for regeneration into a TD on Day 5. One could speculate about endless possibilities, but any forecast more than that is something only God knows.
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Quoting StormW:
Kinda strange with Colin.


Why do you say that Storm ?. From last night I expressed my doubts that it would survive. In fact, I gave it odds of " slim to none " unless it could " bulk up " overnight and slow down, both of which it failed to do. Too small and too fast is the epitaph, as least for now.
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Quoting Patrap:
2 hrs ago..

NOAA: Global Warming "undeniable"

Global warning is "undeniable" says a new report published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which looked at 10 climate indicators and concluded they "all tell the same story."

"People have spent thousands of years building society for one climate and now a new one is being created - one that's warmer and more extreme," the NOAA report states.

The 10 indicators included shrinking glaciers, melting spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, declining sea-ice in the Arctic, sea-surface temperature, higher air temperature over land, air temperature over oceans, humidity and temperature in the troposphere, and ocean heat.

The NOAA report was released during a week when, faced with the specter of a filibuster, U.S. Senate leaders abandoned efforts to pass a comprehensive clean energy-climate bill.

Climate reform legislation did pass the U.S. House of Representatives last summer, against fierce opposition from Big Oil, the coal industry and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

In the Senate, however, it faced opposition from Republicans and Democrats from coal and oiul producing states.

The NOAA report was compiled by investigators from 48 different countries. It noted that each of the preceding three decades was hotter than the decade before.

The 1980's was the hottest decade on record - prompting initial alarm about global warming - only to find temperatures increasing every year during the 1990's. The warming continued into the 21st Century.

Temperatures increased between 2000 and 2009, with the first half of 2010 the warmest on record.

"Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common . . . There is now evidence that more than 90 percent of warming over the last 50 years has gone into our oceans," said Deke Arndt, manager of the NOAA Climate
Monitoring Branch and co-editor of the new report.

Extreme weather conditions have been part of the trend.

Pakistan has just experienced its most intense Monsoon rains on record. Last year, floods in Brazil left 376,000 people homeless. Record heat waves led to furious fires last year in Australia, and this year in central Russia.

In reaching their conclusion, scientists used data from weather satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, buoys and ships.

What's your source for this article?
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1394. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


Ike is cool, I understand why he doesn't put faith in any storm. If you went through 2 massive storms in the past, you'd probably be the same way. Ike probably cannot take another Hurricane, too much pressure. What boggles me is that he even RIPs storms that won't even effect him.


99.9% of the storms don't affect me. Doesn't stop me from RIP-ing them.
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Quoting foggymyst:
Miami local mets stating GOOD NEWS, nhc not following Colin anymore bc its an open wave.... gotta love them..


I do agree with them. If it does degenerate, it really isn't going to be a "real" threat anywhere. After Bonnie's hype, I'm pretty sure they don't want to hype this storm either.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
Wow! I have never seen a storm FORECASTED to regenerate before! However, we still have Colin's remnnants, the wave behind ex-Colin, as well as the E. Caribbean wave. Certainly not quiet.....in fact, it is only getting more active....even though Colin is gone (for now).
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
I WAS RIGHT ITS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW...I WIN THIS TIME AROUND THE NHC TELL ME THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPERN ANYHOW.. I AM BIG WINNER..

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


Like everyone told you about Bonnie.....this is not a game. You don't win anything.
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1389. quante
Good riddance to Colin. After 2004-2005 I never want to see a hurricane again.
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1388. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
04L (FOUR) FINAL Warning #06

By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of TUE 03 Aug 2010

2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
04L REM.LOW
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
97W.INVEST
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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Quoting largeeyes:
Isn't 4 days an awfully long time for a remnant low to just hang around?

I know right?
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Fiona is a name this year for a hurricane? Wasnt Fiona like a ogre in the Shrek movies?

I can hear the weatherforcasters now talking about Hurricane Fiona....nice.


Fiona is a feminine given name. The name Fiona was invented, and first used, by the Scottish poet James Macpherson (1736–96), author of the Ossian poems, which he claimed were translations from ancient Gaelic sources (sources, when challenged, he never produced). The name was subsequently used as a pseudonym by William Sharp (1855–1905), who authored several romantic works under the name "Fiona Macleod". The name has since become popular in England and Scotland.

The name is considered to be a Latinized form of the Gaelic word fionn, meaning "white", "fair". The name Fiona is also sometimes used as an Anglicisation of the Irish language name Fíona. There is also a modern tendency to equate the authentic Scottish Gaelic feminine name Fionnghal with Fiona (note that it is possible that Fiona may have been based on Fionnghal).

Maybe reading the occasional book might help?
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1384. xcool
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ha :(
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
What about the Caribbean?
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1382. IKE
Quoting reedzone:


You really don't believe anything will ramp up this season don't you? I'm giving Colin a good chance for regeneration after it reaches the Bahamas. NC and northward may need to eye this for now.


We've already had one that did and killed quite a few people.

As far as season predictions...throw em out the window. This season has not done as predicted. Yes...the heart of the season is ahead, but 2010 is either missing something or has too much of something.

That's 2 tropical storms that peaked at 40 mph and died within a day or 2....out of 3.
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Quoting IKE:


One thing it could be called is...covering your backside.
U mean the coming back to TD? It's not like it hasn't happened before, as in Hurricane Andrew. The possibility is there, IF there's enough left after the big bad ULL is done with our Colin....
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Quoting Levi32:
Cone now clearly threatening the US, coming closer to my ideas:

120 hour has it as a td. there is something in the tropics that all the experts have missed or that is to be learned because when all the forecast camps expect above average{much}and these systems cant get started the science has failed????
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I missed another storm. Colin didn't have much of a chance with that forward speed, 35 mph is very fast. Opened him right up back into a wave, and has the TUTT to deal with. Several models are hinting at development off Africa in the next couple of days so it seems that everything is in place for a real fireball of a month.
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1378. hcubed
The "Climategate Argument". A fading favorite of the denialists, as numerous independent investigations proved that, aside from finding that some scientists behaved in a sometimes boorish manner, there was aboslutely no hanky-panky. None. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada...

Really. Why don't you google the name of Professor Wei-Chyung Wang (accused of fraud in his use of measuring stations in China.)

Jones (part of the Climatgate inquiry) plays a part here, too.
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1377. Levi32
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Shhh

Levi, Well Models keep on running for ex-collin?


You mean keep showing it without dissipating it? I see no reason why not....it's not going just *poof*....it's still there, just not closed, and thus not a tropical cyclone.
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Miami local mets stating GOOD NEWS, nhc not following Colin anymore bc its an open wave.... gotta love them..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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