Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1475. brla61
Hello everyone!I've never seen a system move so fast. Can someone explain what is causing the forward speed? Levi, Storm or anyone who can answer.. If already explained, I will try to read back some more. Thanks
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I( kid you not, seriously, we have a few days, be prepared, as we already should already, if not, get prepared. I mean do not board up or nothing just yet, but just saying. This Colin falling apart, makes it WAY WORSE for Florida, WAY WORSE down the line with Colin. Seriously, when it turns into a hurricane, it won't be pretty.
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You guys realize where actually still ahead of
2004 the 3rd storm Charley formed on 8/9
so all bets are still off, anyone in Fl remembers that year very well.Link
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Will check in later..stormy afternoon in Sunny So. Fla.
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1471. aquak9
Quoting Drakoen:
BAM models have a 67 knot hurricane off the coast of Florida.


BAM shallow, 18Z, comes a little too close for comfort.
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1468. Levi32
A regeneration and strengthening of Colin is entirely possible off the SE US coast after it pops out the other side of the TUTT, but it will have to survive and get there to make the attempt.
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Do I even need to say it? RIP Colin or Bonnie #2.

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Quoting stormhank:
probably just me but hasnt the Bamm models gone more west at end of their runs?? Well, if colin regenerates by that time
That caught my eye as soon as I got back. Talk about shades of Andrew.... lol
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Colin could become a threat to the East Coast of the United States by the weekend, if he can survive the serious wind shear the Upper level low will create over his remnant low. Tropical wave to his southeast is developing a circulation, and good convection within the ITCZ near 10N and 37W.
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1464. IKE
Quoting catastropheadjuster:

Ike, If ya can see me,
Some one stated earlier that the may be to many ULL's out there do you all think this could be the problem? I am just wondering just trying to understand that's all.

Hey, StormW. How are ya?
Sheri


I'm not sure on the ULL's....seems like a normal amount to me, but I could be wrong. Bonnie just got stuck with one.

Seems to me there's too much high pressure so far in 2010.
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1463. Levi32
I remind everyone that 1969 on August 3rd was 1-0-0. 2004 on August 3rd was 2-1-1. Those were both very active and devastating years, and we're ahead of them at 3-1-0. Some of the more hyperactive years only had normal starts until mid-August when the lid pops off.
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Storm W do you think Colin could reform a new surface circulation further to the east where the main 850mb vortics is ? I see there is a upper level circulation
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll get to 15 named storms or above. Look at 2007, they had 2-3 in August, and 8 named storms in September!



We've already had 3 named storms. Trust me...We'll get past 15.

My random forecast would be a 2008-like season (16 TS)
at the low end, and a 1995-like season (19 TS) at the high end.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think when D-MAX kick in we may have regeneration of TD Colin I know this because Colin is a fighter and is stiil kicking and you notice the update says

DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA

not dissapates

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

if it slows down bam development

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.

if Colin dissapated they would not have said this

more reason to make me belive that Colin will regenerate but I think that it could happen late tonight or tomrrow if Colin has a good D-MAX and the steering slows


D-max doesn't close off a system's circulation, its where the instability between sky and sea is at its peak, and when thunderstorms are generated. This will not regenerate for at least the next two days. Trust me... :)
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Still holding on to this, the forecast does say open wave btw, then a regeneration to a weak TS off the Southeastern Coastline, which is reasonable and the NHC is starting to come in line with this as well.

Photobucket
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Quoting SeniorPoppy:
Colin went POOF. Goodbye, we will not miss you.


are you hurrkat? because you tend to kill off everything. Colin's dead, we know. But Colin wasn't ever a real threat to the US. Even if Colin had hit the USA, it would have been no more than 40 mph max and could have brought nice heat relief to someone (we're scorching down here in the south! Here in Western Hillsborough, the seabrease never comes it seems)
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Quoting Floodman:


Actually I was commenting on the woeful state of some people's education...this guy's only exposure to the name "Fiona" came from a Disney movie? Really?


I assume you took my attempt at humor in the spirit it was intended. Your presence on this blog is wholly appreciated.
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


2010 isn't missing anything and it isn't possible to have too much of something. Bonnie had a ULL follow her around and Colin's forward speed killed him. Alex didn't have either and became a pretty impressive hurricane for the month of june.
I see where Ike is coming from. There's obviously another factor we are not taking into account, because we expected to see activity more similar to 2005 in frequency up to this point, while we've had a year more like what, 2007? Something we expected to impact the season didn't do so as expected, or something we haven't taken into account DID impact it. Personally I think when pple hyped the early season they were thinking more neutral than outright la nina conditions. IIRC, la nina conditions tend to favor heavier activity later in the season rather than earlier. OTOH, neutral w/ cold bias lends more towards activity earlier in the season than la nina does.

This is why I still think we'll see the 18 storms that forecasts average out to; 15 additional storms between now and the end of November seems, unfortunately, quite an achievable prospect. What I'm more interested in right now is forecasted ACE. The last two storms have, as Ike pointed out, been quite shortlived. I will be interested to see whether we have lots more storms like Bonnie and Colin, or more of the traditional longlived CV type storms, complete w/ recurvature into the 40s....
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Quoting StormW:


Thanks...out of all the time I've been forecasting, I think this is the first time I've seen an LLC follow a negative tilt trof axis like that...I mean, I don't even see any winds out of the SE at 34-35 mph. Guess there is a first time for everything. I'm kind of still eyeballing the MLC to it's SE.
Can the MLC work down to the surface thus regenerate Colin or create an entirely different system altogether ?
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1450. Drakoen
BAM models have a 67 knot hurricane off the coast of Florida.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
Hello Storm, hope your having a good day =)
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NHC gives my location a 3% chance of TS force winds in next 120 hours(@120 hours).
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I think when D-MAX kick in we may have regeneration of TD Colin I know this because Colin is a fighter and is stiil kicking and you notice the update says

DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA

not dissapates

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

if it slows down bam development

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.

if Colin dissapated they would not have said this

more reason to make me belive that Colin will regenerate but I think that it could happen late tonight or tomrrow if Colin has a good D-MAX and the steering slows
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1443. aquak9
Quoting sebastianflorida:


Boys and Girls, Now I Tell You, This Is The Story We Need To Discuss, Cuz It Is Going To Be Big, And Big For The U.S.!


uhhhh...you're kidding, right?
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We'll get to 15 named storms or above. Look at 2007, they had 2-3 in August, and 8 named storms in September!



We've already had 3 named storms. Trust me...We'll get past 15.
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Colin went POOF. Goodbye, we will not miss you.
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
Quoting IKE:


It is according to the pre-season predictions. This was suppose to be the near perfect set up. Sorry...it hasn't happened...yet.

One out of 3 by Aug. 3rd, with what I've read about 2010...that's way under.


Oh well 20+ storms wasn't going to happen. You knew that, I knew that. Several of the wishcasters wanted 20+ named storms (who the heck would be crazy enough to want that) but you got to remember it only takes one really. I say 16-6-4. We're at 3-1-0. I've got a feeling we'll live up to your prediction of 13 (or was it 14?), possibly even more.
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1438. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


I was referring to it spitting out the LLC in a NW direction, when I haven't found anything yet, that shows me a flow from the SE to the NW.


Look at the Dovrak loop of the North Atlantic and look east of 60W and notice the curvature in the flow.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
1437. Patrap
,Fiona,,Across the Universe.
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Quoting StormW:


I was referring to it spitting out the LLC in a NW direction, when I haven't found anything yet, that shows me a flow from the SE to the NW.


Oh, okay. Normally the low level jet would take over and the zonal East to West flow would be expected to take it due West now. Of course, we have seen waves split with part heading off to the WNW and part to the West. Other waves have headed due west to the Caribbean and then pushed off to the WNW.

Just the luck of the draw with the orientation of the remnant axis I suppose but even that would have it cutting diagonally across the flow. Perhaps some type of inertia LOL
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1434. Levi32
2010 still has more than enough to offer. We can hope, but based on our current understanding of Meteorology there looks like no escape from a well above-average season. One should keep in mind that years like this tend to last late, and October and even November could be much more active than normal, boosting the numbers we get in August and September, which should be quite high themselves. Since early July really we've been pointing to mid-August to be the real start of the burst. I did think July would be more active than it was but hey, sometimes things take a while to set up. This is a blessing, but don't let your guard down. It's coming, I promise.
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Quoting mikatnight:
#1385 -

For more information, read Floodman's new book, "Everything You Wanted to Know About the Name Fiona - But Were Afraid You'd Kill Yourself if You Found Out"


Actually I was commenting on the woeful state of some people's education...this guy's only exposure to the name "Fiona" came from a Disney movie? Really?
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My son's name is Colin - I thought for sure this thing was going to destroy something...like my son routinely does...

Serriously, This thing reminds me of Chris back in '06. Small - a ULL created windshear and destroyed it. Unlike Chris, Land does not appear to be a threat to it, but the ULL utimately killed chris as a system.
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
it's a remnant LOW THAT MEAN IS GOING TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE SOON BY MORNING IS WILL BE OVER FOR REMNANT LOW..ITS WILL HAVE NO MORE LOW AT ALL WITH ALL THIS DRY AIR AROUND IT..ITS OVER.


Yes, we know, we know...next handle could be "Jasonisthecoolestdudeintheworldpartypeopleinthehouse2010XXXXXXXX"
I'd like to see if you can exploit the 256 character limit....LOL!

Colin is getting an iron lung soon...
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Quoting IKE:


It is according to the pre-season predictions. This was suppose to be the near perfect set up. Sorry...it hasn't happened...yet.

One out of 3 by Aug. 3rd, with what I've read about 2010...that's way under.

Ike, If ya can see me,
Some one stated earlier that the may be to many ULL's out there do you all think this could be the problem? I am just wondering just trying to understand that's all.

Hey, StormW. How are ya?
Sheri
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1428. Ineluki
Well, rising from lurking for my once a year comment.

Looks like 2010 has found itself a version of Karen. A storm that dies, with hostile conditions around it for the next few days, and yet will gain a stupid amount of interest from those who insist on forecasting everything into the East Coast.

I've lurked here since 2006, which makes this my fifth season, and there are a few constants. People who post things from the NHC, bolding the section that proves their pet theory-and then condemning the rest of the advisory as "the NHC being stupid" are a particular favorite. But by far, my favorite constant here are the people who habitually ignore the here and now in favor of forecasting a hit on the East Coast. Yesterday for example-only Ike was saying that Colin wasn't really all that impressive, shouted down by people who were trumpeting how dangerous the storm was. Despite it not being vertically stacked, with an exposed center, and moving far too fast to properly strengthen.

And now, with Colin decaying into a remnant, the same people who say that the NHC doesn't know squat are bolding the last line of the advisory, likely put there as a "cover our a$$es" precaution, as a sign that Colin's still an East Coast threat. Ignoring, again, the lengthy chain of possibilities that has to fall into place for this to occur.

And, no, don't tell me you're taking all that into account. You aren't. All that matters to you is forecasting the East Coast hit and being right.

So, props to Ike for getting it right in the short term. The rest of you? Pay more attention to the here and now, why don't you?

See you next year for the next time you people can't see the forest for the trees.
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Quoting Patrap:
2 hrs ago..

NOAA: Global Warming "undeniable"

Global warning is "undeniable" says a new report published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which looked at 10 climate indicators and concluded they "all tell the same story."

"People have spent thousands of years building society for one climate and now a new one is being created - one that's warmer and more extreme," the NOAA report states.

The 10 indicators included shrinking glaciers, melting spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, declining sea-ice in the Arctic, sea-surface temperature, higher air temperature over land, air temperature over oceans, humidity and temperature in the troposphere, and ocean heat.

The NOAA report was released during a week when, faced with the specter of a filibuster, U.S. Senate leaders abandoned efforts to pass a comprehensive clean energy-climate bill.

Climate reform legislation did pass the U.S. House of Representatives last summer, against fierce opposition from Big Oil, the coal industry and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

In the Senate, however, it faced opposition from Republicans and Democrats from coal and oiul producing states.

The NOAA report was compiled by investigators from 48 different countries. It noted that each of the preceding three decades was hotter than the decade before.

The 1980's was the hottest decade on record - prompting initial alarm about global warming - only to find temperatures increasing every year during the 1990's. The warming continued into the 21st Century.

Temperatures increased between 2000 and 2009, with the first half of 2010 the warmest on record.

"Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common . . . There is now evidence that more than 90 percent of warming over the last 50 years has gone into our oceans," said Deke Arndt, manager of the NOAA Climate
Monitoring Branch and co-editor of the new report.

Extreme weather conditions have been part of the trend.

Pakistan has just experienced its most intense Monsoon rains on record. Last year, floods in Brazil left 376,000 people homeless. Record heat waves led to furious fires last year in Australia, and this year in central Russia.

In reaching their conclusion, scientists used data from weather satellites, weather balloons, weather stations, buoys and ships.

What is your source for this article?
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1426. MahFL
Colin R.I.P.
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