Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1525. 786
Mikatnight...so jealous we need some rain!
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1524. aquak9
sebastian...you're usually conservative.

I think the heat must be gettin' to ya.
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1522. 786
I think 16 named storms is a good prediction, above average however not hyperactive
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1521. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


There are two invests in the WPAC

96W INVEST 100803 1800 13.2N 135.1E WPAC 15 1010
97W INVEST 100803 1800 25.4N 135.8E WPAC 15 1010


Then I stand corrected. Why is this up on the WU page for the west-PAC?

abpw10 pgtw 030600
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/030600z-040600zaug2010//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wave at 37W and 10N is very interesting.
Can I say I hope Ike turns out to be right, and that I also hope the other 6 of the Hurricanes stay out to sea?

I know I'm living in an alternative dream fantasy world, but don't give me the coffee just yet....

Writing from the Potentially Doomed Islands.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
FWIW, the 20% AOI in the Caribbean is still hanging in there, throwing up some nice DMIN tops, and even carrying a bit of vorticity as it runs through low--and lowering--wind shear:





Caribbean rainbow loop
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Off topic, but I took this picture this morning of a rainstorm moving into Boynton Beach - taken from Lantana Beach.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I think Colin may take a path similar to that of (93L?) ... the one that made it into the Caribbean but was supposed to track north of the islands. Maybe not "Colin" but the Energy Formerly Known as Colin.

Wasn't 93L Alex?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What odds would you give for something close to that occurring---a hurricane moving into the coast between Savannah and Cape Canaveral?

I have to say, in the high single digits. 8%.
The NHC predicts. 11/1 odds or 9%....though that's for any cyclone over Cat1 with any(or no) landfall. Something more specific, as you propose, I'd imagine the odds would be well over 20/1.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
\

Not even close: 1987's Hurricane Emily was clocked at 65 mph (100 km/h) during the end of her lifce.

They meant fastest moving storm in the deep tropics ... meaning at least moving generally west and south of some arbitrary latitude line.
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1513. reid221
Perhaps we can persuade Dr. Masters to generate a "recognize" button - enabling us to group together and read the entries of people who are enlightened enough to be taken seriously - without having to slog through the incredible amount of garbage now being posted. As this blog has become more popular - the "ignore" option is no longer enough.
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Quoting IKE:
Indian ocean...nothing.
West-PAC.......nothing.
Cen-PAC........nothing.
East-PAC.......10% on 1.
Atlantic.......remnant low and 20% on central Caribbean.


There are two invests in the WPAC

96W INVEST 100803 1800 13.2N 135.1E WPAC 15 1010
97W INVEST 100803 1800 25.4N 135.8E WPAC 15 1010
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1511. Levi32
Quoting srada:


Would the gulf stream have something to do with it? or are you talking about strengthening before it reaches the gulf stream?


Regeneration would have nothing to do with SSTs which are plenty warm in the SW Atlantic. It would have to do with the upper winds relaxing and allowing development of a slower-moving system which would have the things that Colin currently lacks because of its rapid movement.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The NHC was lowballing Colin's speed.

Colin was at 14.2 N / 49.5 W at 11 am
Colin's now at 15.8 N / 53.8 W at 5 pm.

That's 307 miles in 6 hours. 51 mph!

At that rate of motion, if ex-Colin moved my way, he would cross the GA coast at 1 am Thursday.

Good lord.


That's too high, because they were tracking the mid-level center as of 11am EST and then the low-level center became exposed and it ended up much farther ahead than they thought. That's why the coordinates yield a 51mph speed, but that's inaccurate in reality.
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1510. eddye
tropics chat everyone
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Neapolitan, I am still going with 13/7/3.


I think that's a good prediction, 16 is also very doable.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Hi All,

Any models suggesting anything with the area in the Carribean?
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TropicalStormColin was heading for GrandTurk in ~23hours
(though unlikely to maintain that astoundingly high rate of travel)
Copy&paste 12.6N41.1W, 13.0N42.5W-13.6N45.1W, 13.6N45.1W-18.1N71.1W, bda, 13.6N45.1W-14.0N47.2W, 14.0N47.2W-sfc, 14.0N47.2W-14.2N49.5W, 14.2N49.5W-15.0N61.2W, jax, 14.2N49.5W-15.8N53.8W, 15.8N53.8W-gdt into the GreatCircleMapper)
Between its last two positions, TSColin had been heading 291.5degrees (1degree west of WNW) at a speed of ~51mph(~83km/h).

TSColin's path had recurved sharply, by 16.1degrees north from its previous heading.
And I'm amazed that there's even a definable low left after traveling at such a high speed.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1505. 786
Until the season is over everyone has an opinion nothing more...all we can do is predict.

I agree that mid-August is when trouble will start and September will have more than one storm to track at a time...but only time will tell I admit I am perplexed by the fate of the storms we have had
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Quoting Drakoen:
What I find interesting is that some of the models are increasing the 850mb vorticity with Colin as it approaches the northern Lesser Antilles.


Could it be because it interacts with the TUTT developing more convection and perhaps a more vigorous mid-level center forming resulting in higher 850mb vorticity?
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1500. IKE
Indian ocean...nothing.
West-PAC.......nothing.
Cen-PAC........nothing.
East-PAC.......10% on 1.
Atlantic.......remnant low and 20% on central Caribbean.
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1499. will45
Quoting brla61:
Hello everyone!I've never seen a system move so fast. Can someone explain what is causing the forward speed? Levi, Storm or anyone who can answer.. If already explained, I will try to read back some more. Thanks


well im not an expert brla but i have never seen a faster one as this. Maybe there was just nothing in front of it to slow it down. It was just wide open space at the time.
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Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Respectfully, I'll believe it when I see it.


I'm still going with my long-held 20/12/6. (Yes, that leaves 17/11/6. Completely doable, IMHO)
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1428. Ineluki 5:07 PM EDT on August 03, 2010
Well, rising from lurking for my once a year comment.


This is a really weird comment, and calls into question how seriously u lurk here. First, Ike wasn't the only one questioning the viability of Colin. Second, nobody here was insisting that Colin would end up hitting the US coast as any kind of serious storm. Third, people commenting on Colin's possible regeneration have been expressing SURPRISE at the possibility a lot more than expectation, and the general tone has been one of "wait and see" more than anything else.

I suggest u actually read back a few pages rather than jumping all over pple.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting Drakoen:


I was referring to the SHIPS


Ok, that would be NHC track then.
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1490. srada
Quoting Levi32:
A regeneration and strengthening of Colin is entirely possible off the SE US coast after it pops out the other side of the TUTT, but it will have to survive and get there to make the attempt.


Would the gulf stream have something to do with it? or are you talking about strengthening before it reaches the gulf stream?
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Quoting Ossqss:
Did any of you read this? If you did, you would at least understand where the continued information is coming from and its history vs. current use. This is number crunching, not interpretation. The numbers and samples tell the tale.

"• Problems with GHCN, such as sampling discontinuities and contamination from urbanization and
other forms of land use change, will therefore affect CRU, GISS, and NOAA. Decreasing quality
of GHCN data over time implies decreasing quality of CRU, GISS and NOAA data products, and
increased reliance on estimated adjustments to rectify climate observations."

http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/surfacetempreview.pdf


From the paper: "Professor McKitrick holds a BA in economics from Queen's University, and an MA and Ph.D. in
economics from the University of British Columbia...Professor McKitrick is widely-cited in Canada and around the world as an expert on global warming.
" Yet another non-peer-reviewed paper by a known skeptic who happens to not be a climatologist. Sigh...

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1488. IKE
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Respectfully, I'll believe it when I see it.


I'll 2nd your thoughts.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
If Colin does come back and becomes a serious threat, I'll rename him Lazarus ;)


Colin's problems make the discussion more interesting and the outcome more suspenseful. Perhaps, Lazarus Long? as in the character from Robert Heinlein's novels...
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so here is a questin... IF ex colin regenerates back to the state it should be named will it still be Colin or will it be renamed to Danielle?
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1484. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


How do BAM models have intensity associated with them, they are strictly a trajectory model? Unless some site has associated the SHIPS intensity with the BAM track.


I was referring to the SHIPS
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
The tropical wave near 37W and 10N is resembling a large circulation. This could be the system the models were hinting at all along and Colin could have very well started the process of development this season.
Quoting Levi32:
I remind everyone that 1969 on August 3rd was 1-0-0. 2004 on August 3rd was 2-1-1. Those were both very active and devastating years, and we're ahead of them at 3-1-0. Some of the more hyperactive years only had normal starts until mid-August when the lid pops off.

Respectfully, I'll believe it when I see it.
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1481. Drakoen
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What odds would you give for something close to that occurring---a hurricane moving into the coast between Savannah and Cape Canaveral?

I have to say, in the high single digits. 8%.


It is way too early to tell that
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
Quoting Drakoen:
BAM models have a 67 knot hurricane off the coast of Florida.


How do BAM models have intensity associated with them, they are strictly a trajectory model? Unless some site has associated the SHIPS intensity with the BAM track.
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1479. Drakoen
What I find interesting is that some of the models are increasing the 850mb vorticity with Colin as it approaches the northern Lesser Antilles.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
Quoting IKE:


I'm not sure on the ULL's....seems like a normal amount to me, but I could be wrong. Bonnie just got stuck with one.

Seems to me there's too much high pressure so far in 2010.


Levi pointed out in one of his videos that pressures in the MDR where 4 mb below average. I think whats happening is that storms run into land before they ever really can get going because they take so long to organize, because they really want to take advantage of the favorable conditions.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
1477. srada
Quoting sebastianflorida:


Boys and Girls, Now I Tell You, This Is The Story We Need To Discuss, Cuz It Is Going To Be Big, And Big For The U.S.!


is this saying category 3? or at least category 2?
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1476. IKE
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Oh well 20+ storms wasn't going to happen. You knew that, I knew that. Several of the wishcasters wanted 20+ named storms (who the heck would be crazy enough to want that) but you got to remember it only takes one really. I say 16-6-4. We're at 3-1-0. I've got a feeling we'll live up to your prediction of 13 (or was it 14?), possibly even more.


13-7-4.
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1475. brla61
Hello everyone!I've never seen a system move so fast. Can someone explain what is causing the forward speed? Levi, Storm or anyone who can answer.. If already explained, I will try to read back some more. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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