Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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1623. victoria780
10:32 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting SeniorPoppy:


Yes
Dry air gave Colin a Colinoscopy>><<
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
1621. NCHurricane2009
10:30 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
You guys gotta check this out! Look at this visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
At the first frame of the loop, start at 15N, 52W. If you look carefully, you will then suddenly see a really beautiful tiny vortex in the low clouds that is Colin pop up! By the end of the frame, the cool tiny vortex of Colin is near 16N, 54W. Isn't that neat?

Shucks! Its going to be really hard to see the vortex as the sun goes down over Colin. Infrared imagery is going to make this hard to see at night.


Oh yeah, don't forget to check the L/L check box at the top during the animation to see the latitue longitude grid (to see the coordinates I am talking about).
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 535 Comments: 3709
1620. Dakster
10:28 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting redwagon:
So I suggest decreasing our demand by controlling our population. If we had 2 or 3 billion less people on the planet

Were you thinking of The Black Plague or maybe
an asteroid? Birth control in the water?



Ask Japan and China, both have population control measures in place.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
1619. truecajun
10:28 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting JupiterFL:


Hey Mother Nature, did you start on the scotch a little early today? I never imagined you would be so un-motherly.


seriously, that's what i was thinking. what kind of mother says let's kill off "extra" babies in order to save keep our temperatures down? it's INSANE, no matter what GW may or not have in store for us, your thinking is INSANE. that's all i'm saying. i'm not talking about it any further, no matter what attack i'm going to get. back to the tropics.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1618. bohonkweatherman
10:27 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting Dakster:



That reminds me of a joke, but I need to know if this is the adult blog?
Nope there are kids and ladies on here.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
1617. NCHurricane2009
10:26 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
You guys gotta check this out! Look at this visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
At the first frame of the loop, start at 15N, 52W. If you look carefully, you will then suddenly see a really beautiful tiny vortex in the low clouds that is Colin pop up! By the end of the frame, the cool tiny vortex of Colin is near 16N, 54W. Isn't that neat?

Shucks! Its going to be really hard to see the vortex as the sun goes down over Colin. Infrared imagery is going to make this hard to see at night.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 535 Comments: 3709
1616. xcool
10:26 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
truecajun .dry air decreasing
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1615. muddertracker
10:26 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
I just spent the past 20 minutes playing pin the tail on the LLC. Needless to say, I can't find it :(
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1614. Dakster
10:25 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

Quoting FLdewey:


That's the original blog.

The 2008 blog is Coke Classic... this is like Crystal Pepsi.

It's hard to get the taste out of your mouth.


That reminds me of a joke, but I need to know if this is the adult blog?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
1613. BahaHurican
10:25 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I was just wondering can u see me? I know there's a few been - me because of the GW stuff, but I didn't know how much damage they have done.I just stated the truth and a couple of them got mad and then went to another blog talking about me. I'm not a bad person and i only comment a few times. I hope I am not bothering you.
sheri
Sheri, I'll have to throw a few [+]s ur way. Ur one of us!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22595
1612. redwagon
10:25 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
So I suggest decreasing our demand by controlling our population. If we had 2 or 3 billion less people on the planet

Were you thinking of The Black Plague or maybe
an asteroid? Birth control in the water?

Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
1611. psuweathernewbie
10:24 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Caribbean system is trying to get better organized, convection showing signs of possible low level circulation developing as convection begins to consolidate and deepen.
1610. truecajun
10:22 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting amd:


you are good. i remember you from 2005, you survive the filter :)

seriously though, it really makes the blog a lot more enjoyable to read.


i'll vouch for you catastrophe, you've been nice. so funny on here. are you on the naughty or nice list this hurricane season?? LOL
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1609. truecajun
10:21 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting xcool:



is Colin chocking on dry air?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1607. amd
10:20 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I was just wondering can u see me? I know there's a few been - me because of the GW stuff, but I didn't know how much damage they have done.I just stated the truth and a couple of them got mad and then went to another blog talking about me. I'm not a bad person and i only comment a few times. I hope I am not bothering you.
sheri


you are good. i remember you from 2005, you survive the filter :)

seriously though, it really makes the blog a lot more enjoyable to read.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
1606. IKE
10:19 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Here's the latest GFS @ 108 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1605. StormGoddess
10:19 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
.
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 589
1604. Drakoen
10:18 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
1603. catastropheadjuster
10:18 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting amd:


I have completely deleted my ignore list, and just set the filter to see good. Just about all of the junk disappears.



I was just wondering can u see me? I know there's a few been - me because of the GW stuff, but I didn't know how much damage they have done.I just stated the truth and a couple of them got mad and then went to another blog talking about me. I'm not a bad person and i only comment a few times. I hope I am not bothering you.
sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
1602. SeniorPoppy
10:15 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol:
Colin ain't dead, just changing gear imo, systems like Colin remain a threat until they are absolutely gone!


It will more than likely never regenerate. Just my opinion.
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
1601. Sfloridacat5
10:14 PM GMT on August 03, 2010
The wave in the Caribbean looks like its trying to get better orgainized. Thunderstorms seem to be trying to organize.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8358
Oh yeah,

Its seesm y'all who pointed out that Colin's center was becoming exposed and was actually along 15 N latitude need a cookie. You were right. That's the center marked at the 5 PM NHC advisory. Boy, Colin is haulin (like my rhyme?), and he's haulin fast!

Lastest center position still within my 1 AM EDT cone, still got it with regards to track forecast. But, intensity forecast could be a bust.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 535 Comments: 3709
Colin ain't dead, just changing gear imo, systems like Colin remain a threat until they are absolutely gone!
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Felt like global warming here in Fl last Jan. when the 1st week of the month, we didn't have one night where it was warmer than 18 degrees.

*Poof*

Why do people insist on associating a few days of weather with climate change. Climate is average weather for 30 years. Get it through your brain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1597. IKE
Latest GFS completely loses RL Colin in about 4 days. Nothing...nadda...zilch.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1596. Drakoen
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


Ok Drak, is the cyclonic circulation seen with this convection just the ITCZ? Also I see that the Caribbean Sea system is developing curved convective bands, Could this be developing a surface circulation further north, then the coast of South America?


Yes it is just ITCZ. Caribbean system is very close to an upper level high so the flow aloft gives the appears of bands. MIMIC-TPW and cimss 850mb still show that the vorticity is very close to the coast of South America.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
1595. amd
Quoting BahaHurican:
Which is why I've been watching ACE as well as # / Cat of storms.

On another topic, where is this Twave pple keep referring to in the ECar? I see the one moving in the CCar, but there's nothing analyzed in the ECar AFAIK, and I am not seeing major evidence of one on the imagery....


I think it maybe the cluster of clouds north of the ABC islands, but I guess that could be closer to the central Caribbean than eastern Caribbean.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
1594. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1593. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
04L/REM LOW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thanx pop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BDAwx:
2004 was Hyperactive with an ACE of 225, but it only had 15 named storms. ok? You dont need 20+ named storms to be hyperactive. 1998 was hyperactive with only 14 named storms - the bottom end of the NHC's forecast and an ACE of 182.
Which is why I've been watching ACE as well as # / Cat of storms.

On another topic, where is this Twave pple keep referring to in the ECar? I see the one moving in the CCar, but there's nothing analyzed in the ECar AFAIK, and I am not seeing major evidence of one on the imagery....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22595
Quoting OminousCloud:
weaker storm = a more westward track??


Yes
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
Hey guys,

Came back to check on Colin. Yep, I am with the camp that says to watch the remnant of Colin closely. It only needs to slow down some before it comes back again.

It really hasn't weakened over the last 6 hours (central pressure only rose by 1 mb, winds are still at 40 mph), but its moving so fast to the WNW that its lost its closed circulation in the southern semicicle (remember how a westward moving system has faster winds in the north and slower winds in the south). The faster Colin moved, the more winds in the south weakened to the point there really are no winds south of the center, and no more closed circulation.

This is pulling off an Earl '04/Bonnie '04. Both became open waves after moving too fast. Bonnie would come back to life in the Gulf of Mexico. Earl came back to life as E-Pac TS Frank. It remains to be seen if the remnant of Colin comes back.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 535 Comments: 3709
1587. IKE
18Z GFS @ 78 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Drakoen:


No wave there just ITCZ convection for the time being. What you'll want to watch is the tropical wave off the coast of Africa. As it approaches 40W it may try to get better organized in a tropical cyclone. Upper level winds are forecast to be conducive for development.


Ok Drak, is the cyclonic circulation seen with this convection just the ITCZ? Also I see that the Caribbean Sea system is developing curved convective bands, Could this be developing a surface circulation further north, then the coast of South America?
Quoting StormGoddess:

First off, your graph is based off of a "luxuries" lifestyle, the resources being demanded from the earth at the present time. This is exactly the point, we cannot continue to do to the planet what we have been doing - demanding more and more, polluting more and more. Your wants are to continue with the status quo, with most being slaves to the machine, so that a few can benefit from it. My reasoning is to have a more simple lifestyle with more people growing their own food, demanding less resources from the planet, and for people to be left alone as to how many children people have. It is no one's business how many children people have. Or perhaps you would be happier living in China. Your knowledge of agriculture is obviously limited so we will not need go there and bore everyone here to tears.


I'm not asking for any luxuries at all, if you looked at the damn graphic you would have seen in 2009 we consumed 140% of what our planet is capable of growing back in one year. We can't continue at this rate. So I suggest decreasing our demand by controlling our population. And I never said I would be happier to live in China, I only used China as an example that it is possible to control your population growth. So my idea WORKS.

You suggest that everyone grow their own food and that by doing that we will need less resources. Yet, you fail to realize how much land would be needed. You're basically proposing pre-industrial lifestyles, where everyone is self sustaining. But you again fail to realize that back then everyone had a farm the size of a damn square mile (obviously we won't need that much, but at the very least you would need a 1,000 by 1,000 ft plot of land, or roughly 1/25th of a sq mile to sustain a family.). You need tons and tons of room to have cattle and tons and tons of water to grow enough plants to live off of. Neither of which is available. Our world's density per square mile is 34.833 people with water included, and with only land area, its 119.29 people per square mile, with Antartica excluded, its 131.667, and a country like Monaco has over 40,000 people per square mile. You think that we could start living in the desert, because we know how to, but you forget that we don't have the water supplies to effectively have thousands of people living out there. Not to mention, if anything our society is growing more and more urbanized, and less and less self sufficient; we rely on everything around us. Your idea doesn't work. The reason agriculture is limited to large and specific areas, rather than everywhere around the planet in everyone's backyard is because its more efficient. Your idea might work, if we had 2 or 3 billion less people on the planet.

Also, notice how I supported my idea with an example of how it would work. You did not.


Then you go on to say my knowledge on agriculture is limited. You should be embarrassed with yourself. Why even bring a personal attack into this? Unnecessary and immature.
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weaker storm = a more westward track??
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1583. amd
Quoting BahaHurican:
Use your filter at the top of the comments; set to "see bad" or "see average". Cuts a lot of the "noise".


I have completely deleted my ignore list, and just set the filter to see good. Just about all of the junk disappears.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
If some here wish-cast enough it might come true. It seems unlikely (to me anyway) that RL Colin will be a threat in the future. It has too many obstacles that it must face in order to come back from the dead. Reminds me of Anna and Fred of last year. The systems fought valiantly but went poof in the end.
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
1581. Drakoen
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Drakeon, my best guess is that the upper level low hangs tougher, its been the rule of thumb this season. Thoughts on the wave at 37W and 9-10N?


No wave there just ITCZ convection for the time being. What you'll want to watch is the tropical wave off the coast of Africa. As it approaches 40W it may try to get better organized in a tropical cyclone. Upper level winds are forecast to be conducive for development.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
The Caribean Sea disturbance has a very impressive mid level circulation withi t over South America right now, due to land proximity this won't develop for another 24 hours. Upper level outflow beginning to setup on the southeast quadrant, with a curving band within a clockwise flow of cirrus clouds.
Quoting Drakoen:
The models forecast for the TUTT axis to positively titled across the Bahamas region with a strong upper level low pressure system developing along the axis of the TUTT and begins moving slowly westward into the Gulf of Mexico. How close Colin comes to the right entrance region of the TUTT will be crucial to its survival.
The new BAMM 18z is slower than the NHC and the dynamic forecast steering is for the low to mid level steering speed to slow down some when the system gets past the Lesser Antilles approaching possibly the Bahamas.


Interesting...much of that upper level energy will be retrograding W-ward as the remnants of Colin approach the Bahamas. Also, note the upper ridging to the NE of the TUTT axis possibly providing diffluence and outflow channels...if Colin can stay far enough away and on the E-ern side of the upper level trough, we might see some redevelopment.
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Quoting BaltOCane:


it looks like some of the models (GFS,CMC) have it restrengthening N of PR and DR/Haiti... does this seem like a trend to anyone else?
still learning, be kind... :)


Anna went poof again after that.
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
carolina system is more impressive than this Colin has been
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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