Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Some people are really sad that Colin is gone. Let's all hope this season is a bust. I would love nothing more. Conditions only have been marginally conducive in the Atlantic so far as a whole.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
School starts tomorrow, so I'm not gonna post many comments until the weekend.


Your school starts on August 4? That's horrible.
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at lest TD 4 be came a name storm 1st
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Quoting fatlady99:


Not trying to add fuel to this fire, but in case the subject interests other folk, here is a good website about sustainable agriculture from folk who actually are doing the research, have UN and USA and other grants and go all over the world to countries suffering famine and limited resources. They are good folk, and have interesting things to say. I've used their methods for several years and have been impressed.

The basic premise is that one can support a person on @700 sq ft of land, if it is managed properly, and if resources are not wasted in mono-cropping and trying to grow lots of hormone fed beef, etc.

Well, there it is for anyone who is interested. Sorry to be off topic, but I thought the subject could use a good reference.

Link


side note: I'll try and be a little calmer and less aggressive and appear more "motherly" this time.

To the quote above: Do you two actually think that one day we will all be self sustainable on our own properties? With 30 million people living in metro areas like Tokyo, do you actually believe that some day in the future we will all spread out and become farm country? To me this is just so unlikely, that it was out of the question in my book, which is why I was mentioning population control the whole time.

And also in the quote above you mention 700sq ft is all that is needed to support one individual if managed properly. I could see that happening, however, the food needed to feed any animals you raise in that area would need to come from an external source. There is no way you could grow enough grass to feed 3 or 4 cows (I saw 3 or 4 because you need to have two to mate so that they can produce offspring and you can continue having cows on your property) in that tiny property. Which would mean, they would be taking up land in that area, and then it would have to be transported to you, suppose you took a horse, then you would need room for that animal too, as well as food.

So the reality ends up being, you need much more than 700 sq ft, and that isn't even including living space.
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1770. Drakoen
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting FloridaHeat:


i am not sure if i am allowed to make the invitations or not so i am hesitant to post it here maybe one of them will see this and send you an email
Please hook me up man! I'm so ready to get away from this immature, bipolar blog!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


LATEST 16 MINUTES AGO

munch munch munch
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Quoting Chicklit:

I'm riding my bicycle over to the beach for a swim. Please guys don't quote trolls. For some of us it's a blood pressure issue.
Have a nice evening everyone.


Haha!
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1766. gator23
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Not Everyone

Im Not mean and StormW isnt Mean and maybe 10 other people

However Everyone Else Is.

LOL! no that is true sammy you are awesome
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School starts tomorrow, so I'm not gonna post many comments until the weekend.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1763. Drakoen
Quoting thelmores:


Pretty cool Drak..... I believe this is the first time I have saw this radar site in Curacao..... have I been living under a rock?? LOL


Must be. lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting DestinJeff:


Did you find another that isn't quite so much like this one?


yes it is actually filled with useful information and admin quickly take care of any problems
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
i just joined this blog a few days ago and now i understand why several people emailed me and recommended another weather blog i do not understand why everyone has to be so mean and hateful to each other but tonight i am seeing the nasty side of the blog


You just really have to see the good in people, or in very extreme cases, the good people. Such as I do. ;)
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1759. gator23
Quoting thelmores:


Pretty cool Drak..... I believe this is the first time I have saw this radar site in Curacao..... have I been living under a rock?? LOL

having Spurrier as your coach will do that to you... jk of course. however the visor needs to go.
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Quoting gator23:

what blog did they recommend? I will join you.


i am not sure if i am allowed to make the invitations or not so i am hesitant to post it here maybe one of them will see this and send you an email
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Evening all.

Yes, Colin was rightfully downgraded. However, that was potentially the worst NHC advisory I've ever seen. It is impossible to forecast regeneration five days out. I have absolutely no confidence in that forecast. The NHC needs to give Colin's remnants time!
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Quoting Drakoen:
Radar imagery of the eastern Caribbean disturbance


Pretty cool Drak..... I believe this is the first time I have saw this radar site in Curacao..... have I been living under a rock?? LOL
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Quoting BahaHurican:
The ppl running in here to attack Dr. M's credibility on GW are amazing. It's getting old, too. Love the ad hominem attacks w/ no data to support, especially.

Guess this is a sign for me to take a break. Will look in in a couple hours to see what's kicking post TWD....

I'm riding my bicycle over to the beach for a swim. Please guys don't quote trolls. For some of us it's a blood pressure issue.
Have a nice evening everyone.
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Quoting: TankHead93

You have absolutely ZERO pieces of evidence to even remotely convict me of wishcasting. You wanna' know why pal?... I hardly post on this unstable and ill-minded blog, unlike you. So before you go accusing people of being wishcasters, make sure you have cold, hard proof and get ya' facts straight. ;)

Take a chill pill. Just because I said a few disturbances will not form into any major threats does not make me an extreme down-caster.
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Quoting gator23:

ahhh thanks!


Yep. Sorry about the misunderstanding.
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1750. gator23
Quoting FloridaHeat:
i just joined this blog a few days ago and now i understand why several people emailed me and recommended another weather blog i do not understand why everyone has to be so mean and hateful to each other but tonight i am seeing the nasty side of the blog

what blog did they recommend? I will join you.
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
i just joined this blog a few days ago and now i understand why several people emailed me and recommended another weather blog i do not understand why everyone has to be so mean and hateful to each other but tonight i am seeing the nasty side of the blog
Run while you can bro! It's not to late!
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1748. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


LATEST 16 MINUTES AGO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The ppl running in here to attack Dr. M's credibility on GW are amazing. It's getting old, too. Love the ad hominem attacks w/ no data to support, especially.

Guess this is a sign for me to take a break. Will look in in a couple hours to see what's kicking post TWD....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting Objectivist:

Dr. Masters being the major offender. Sorry, it's the truth. The laughable thing is he's not particularly qualified to discuss the topic. :-)
And your credentials? Lol
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i just joined this blog a few days ago and now i understand why several people emailed me and recommended another weather blog i do not understand why everyone has to be so mean and hateful to each other but tonight i am seeing the nasty side of the blog
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1744. gator23
Quoting JenniferGirl:


Yes, Colin is now a remnant low, but whatever the other guy was (Sorry. I don't remember) showed a pic of its demise, to illustrate how it became a remnant low.

ahhh thanks!
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1742. gator23
Quoting TankHead93:
You have absolutely ZERO pieces of evidence to even remotely convict me of wishcasting. You wanna' know why pal?... I hardly post on this unstable and ill-minded blog, unlike you. So before you go accusing people of being wishcasters, make sure you have cold, hard proof and get ya' facts straight. ;)

ya! unstable and ill-minded! Im libel to flip out and kick everyone in this room!
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Quoting gator23:

wikipedia may not be the most "objective" source. GET IT!


Neither is Subjectivist er Objectivist.
Garbage in. Garbage out.
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hollywood, i accidentally quoted the wrong people in #1704. i meant to quote you when you said that you thought you were surprised and thought you were in the wrong blog.

i modified the comment to remove the folks i accidentally quoted. i'm not sure how that happened.

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Quoting gator23:

i am not quite sure what you are talking about please clarify. You said we are agreeing on the same thing? I was wanting to find out if Colin has been downgraded to a remnant low.


Yes, Colin is now a remnant low, but whatever the other guy was (Sorry. I don't remember) showed a pic of its demise, to illustrate how it became a remnant low.
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Quoting SeniorPoppy:
Quoting: TankHead93

Yeah, you'll say that if it was blatantly clear that it was going to regenerate. It's natural for you to say that because you are an extreme downcaster.

I can speak for myself. Keep wish-casting and it might come true. The last few systems have died off to hostile conditions. They were too much for Bonnie to handle and Colin raced into oblivion. How is that being a down-caster? It's just the facts.

You have absolutely ZERO pieces of evidence to even remotely convict me of wishcasting. You wanna' know why pal?... I hardly post on this unstable and ill-minded blog, unlike you. So before you go accusing people of being wishcasters, make sure you have cold, hard proof and get ya' facts straight. ;)
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1737. Dakster
Quoting AussieStorm:

had me checking my settings but they were fine, i almost scratched a hole on my head trying to figure it out.


I am assuming you are blocking the update?

In a couple of days check the MS knowledge base. I can't believe you are the only one having that problem.
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1736. gator23
Quoting Objectivist:

I'm sorry, but you fall squarely into the "useful idiot" category. Sea levels have been rising since the last ice age. Sea level rise has been greatly exaggerated by the "global warming community" but ground truth is leaking in...there is very simply no catastrophic sea level rise to concern yourself with.

To quote from Wikipedia:

"A common perception is that the rate of sea-level rise should have accelerated during the latter half of the 20th century, but tide gauge data for the 20th century show no significant acceleration."

Coupled with the low solar activity we're likely to see for the next 20-40 years (since thermal expansion dominate sea level rise) the sea levels are of less concern than they have been for the last several hundred years.

calling someone an idiot isnt that "objective" of you. GET IT!
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Drak, the radar image you posted is showing signs of organization, it will take another 24 hours before anything substantial occurs though.
Quoting JenniferGirl:


The entire blog was wishcasting before it became TD4, and ever since the last advisory, they've been downcasting. What's up with that?


SHEAR from ULL...... not downcasting, its facing reality! Look at the official NHC track..... forecast to be a tropical depression through the entire plot they show..... Colin has little to no chance because of its size, and hostile environment caused by the ULL, and associated shear/dry air!
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Not everyone but the so called downcasters from the beginning always get jumped on because they are not forecasting formation. Colin was barely a TS. Did deserve it with the low and the winds but that was it. Never had a true shot to be a major threat.


Yeah. Not everyone. I just get tired when a lot of people do. In fact, the majority probably do not.
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1731. gator23
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Same with the so called wishcasters with every storm. All we where doing is speculating on what the models where showing, heck the whole wishcaster vs downcaster thing is the reason we've lost credible bloggers.

who did we lose?
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Quoting truecajun:



is Colin chocking on dry air?


Not really. Looking at water vapor animation, expanding convection near the remnant of Colin is shrinking away the nearby dry air pocket to the southwest.
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Quoting gator23:

dont bother argueing with her, I have her on my ignore list. Never-mind that the book he wrote was a long time ago and he was being theoretical. I bet truecajun fell for the death panel crap too.


no, i'm not going to argue. i missed the death panel stuff, which i'm glad for.
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1727. xcool
btwntx08 hello sir.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Not everyone but the so called downcasters from the beginning always get jumped on because they are not forecasting formation. Colin was barely a TS. Did deserve it with the low and the winds but that was it. Never had a true shot to be a major threat.


Same with the so called wishcasters with every storm. All we where doing is speculating on what the models where showing, heck the whole wishcaster vs downcaster thing is the reason we've lost credible bloggers.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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