Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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we could seee 92L tonight or wed
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1873. txjac
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
KOG, just read on MSN that a solar tsunami will be visible in Alaska, Canada and some parts of North America tonight.



Isnt Levi in Alaska? Maybe he will get a chance to see it?
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1872. xcool
Time to Tone Down Hurricane Season Prognostications?
August 3, 2010 · 0 comments

With a third of the Atlantic hurricane season over and just three storms named (albeit accompanied by two tropical depressions), should hurricane season prognosticators consider backing down from their early season forecasts of a wild season? And we’re not just talking about one or two Punxatawny Phils here — this year realized eight separate forecasts of named storms and hurricanes for the six-month season, which began June 1. Predictions of the number of named storms ranged from 17 to a lofty 23 — far above the average of 11 named storms realized over the last 60 years.






real meat of hurricane season is from mid August through mid October, when about 90% of a season’s storms form. Based on the May and June forecasts, that would equate to about 15-21 tropical storms and hurricanes — still a substantially busy season. But the chatter has begun on the blogs (2nd topic on this page) and in the online and mainstream news that this year will not be like 2005. By this point in that season the Atlantic had already seen eight named storms, including two major hurricanes. The 2005 season went on to realize 27 named storms, including Category 5 Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, and one unnamed storm added to the tally in the post-season.

So what drove the early season forecasts? And why might they need to be lowered? As in 2005, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Atlantic basin have been well above average since spring. In fact, record warm SSTs have dominated the main tropical cyclone development region—from 10°N to 20°N between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W – 80°W)—for five consecutive months (see the 2nd topic entry on this page). Combine that with lower-than-normal surface pressure basin wide and the fact that El Niño was not ending but appeared poised to transition to La Niña conditions (which it did) in the tropical Pacific, both of which are factors that can lead to more than the usual number of storms, and forecasters had almost no choice but to set their sights rather high. Conditions appeared very favorable for a quick start to a long and busy season, not unlike 2005.

Problem is, that hasn’t happened. The tropical cyclones that have developed this year have struggled. Despite all the favorable features, it appears dry air and more importantly strong wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in June and July have kept storms in check. Typically, the atmosphere over the Atlantic Basin moistens significantly starting in August as the westward-moving Saharan dust outbreaks wane. And seasonal wind shear also becomes more conducive for storm development by August. Still, the next four months would need to see the pace of tropical storm and hurricane formation come fast and furious to realize the forecasts. It could happen: in 1995, 16 tropical storms and hurricanes, including five major hurricanes, formed one after another after another from the last days of July through the end of October, leaving just 10 days in the three-month period free of any storms. But that kind of hurricane history isn’t likely to repeat itself. Even 2005 had more storm-free days in the same portion of the season.

So what will forecasters do? Time will tell as two of the leading forecast teams—NOAA and the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, led by Phil Klotzbach and William Gray—update their forecasts this week. (Check these links for their updated forecasts: CSU (Aug. 4) and NOAA (Aug. 5).




Link
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they have 14 minutes left to be on time not surpose to come out till 8pm
KOG, just read on MSN that a solar tsunami will be visible in Alaska, Canada and some parts of North America tonight.
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1870. beell
Quoting JLPR2:
Is the area of convection to the NW of the remains of Colin a TW?


One opinion:
There maybe a little wiggle-but for the most part there is a well defined boundary between the drier air surging east and moister air to the west. The boundary, providing some "lift" and the TUTT providing nice ventilation over the boundary. Convection.
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Quoting fatlady99:


No ma'am. The 700 sq ft only applies to managed food intensive beds. Once you throw in animal proteins, the ratio of land needed to support skyrockets. You need about an acre per beef down here in north florida. Goats are a smaller space, and chickens can exist in quite a small space and graze very well in the intensive beds. Actually are encouraged to do so as an organic method of pest control, and for fertilizer.

As for the rest of your post, all I can say is bless you. There is a lot of research already done and published on the subject. I'm not a career scientist, but I have been a Master Gardener, and so sustainable Ag is a favorite subject. If you are interested in researching further, the link I posted earlier can refer you to lots of info.


OH! I thought that 700 sq ft was with animals too, I was about to say...

But yea, I love gardening too I really only do the fruit and vegetable side of gardening, because the food really does taste the best when its coming from your backyard and its very satisfying growing plants that produce.
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1868. txjac
Quoting stormy2008:
Something tells me that we haven't heard the last from Colin.


I agree stormy ...kind of reminds me of my ex husband ...
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1867. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:
nhc late
they have 14 minutes left to be on time not surpose to come out till 8pm
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 164 Comments: 52257
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WHICH HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS
OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
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Something tells me that we haven't heard the last from Colin.
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NHC might as well change their update time. They're getting later and later. They're probably just playing video games in their spare time. Had to make it to the next level before they updated!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
How much land for wood, roads, airports, factories?

I just calculated the size of the square each person would have if the land area of the world were subdivided evenly for each person (excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) would be 462 feet on a side. Or about 212,700 square feet.


LOL! I think I'll stick with gardening. :D
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Quoting txjac:
Wow, this has been out of control. I'm pretty much a lurker/learner and am attempt to show respect to all on this blog. I try to limit my questions when it's "downtime" in the season. I've been lurking here for years under two different handles (couldnt remember the password to my first one) ..where are all of these new people coming from? It seems like I dont recognize many of these people. I miss seeing the usuals ...Pat, Dak, Storm, weather456 and others who's names are escaping me ...these people always used to be here ..all the time. I alway appreciate the great info the the regulars post.


It used to be that the regulars outnumbered the trolls. That has changed drastically and to the detriment of entire blog.
The other issue is that some find that you can only accomplish a hidden agenda through absolute chaos.
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There is nothing wrong with this blog, follow all the Rules and you won't have an issue, don't and you will.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
How much land for wood, roads, airports, factories?

I just calculated the size of the square each person would have if the land area of the world were subdivided evenly for each person (excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) would be 462 feet on a side. Or about 212,700 square feet.
That's considered a "modest" house around here.
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nhc late
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1858. JLPR2
Quoting txjac:
Wow, this has been out of control. I'm pretty much a lurker/learner and am attempt to show respect to all on this blog. I try to limit my questions when it's "downtime" in the season. I've been lurking here for years under two different handles (couldnt remember the password to my first one) ..where are all of these new people coming from? It seems like I dont recognize many of these people. I miss seeing the usuals ...Pat, Dak, Storm, weather456 and others who's names are escaping me ...these people always used to be here ..all the time. I alway appreciate the great info the the regulars post.


been posting for 3 myself, and yep, there are lots of new folks.
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BP begins attempt to cut off gusher by pumping mud

By HARRY R. WEBER and GREG BLUESTEIN (AP) – 44 minutes ago

ON THE GULF OF MEXICO — BP embarked Tuesday on an operation that could seal the biggest offshore oil leak in U.S. history once and for all, forcing mud down the throat of its blown-out well in a tactic known variously as "bullheading" or a "static kill."

The pressure in the well dropped quickly in the first 90 minutes of the procedure, a sign that everything was going as planned, wellsite leader Bobby Bolton told The Associated Press aboard the Q4000, the vessel being used to pump in the mud....


http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gIXWYBTpLtSayJtg41LKXpxSxVPAD9HC9S100
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
How much land for wood, roads, airports, factories?

I just calculated the size of the square each person would have if the land area of the world were subdivided evenly for each person (excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) would be 462 feet on a side. Or about 212,700 square feet.


My luck, I'd be in the middle of four of the nutz that I have on ignore
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If you're angry with someone- http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlogs_-_Ignore
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1852. txjac
Wow, this has been out of control. I'm pretty much a lurker/learner and am attempt to show respect to all on this blog. I try to limit my questions when it's "downtime" in the season. I've been lurking here for years under two different handles (couldnt remember the password to my first one) ..where are all of these new people coming from? It seems like I dont recognize many of these people. I miss seeing the usuals ...Pat, Dak, Storm, weather456 and others who's names are escaping me ...these people always used to be here ..all the time. I alway appreciate the great info the the regulars post.
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1851. JLPR2
So everyone had a chance to RIP Colin yet?
If so, then Colin will probably explode tonight XD it always happens, remember 92L? LOL!
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1849. JLPR2
Quoting muddertracker:
I think we have the same "cool" person on ignore...lol..but that person gets quoted a TON, so it doesn't really do much good


yes -.-
the quote feature has its disadvantages
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1848. amd
Quoting duajones78413:
Can someone answer my questions?
Is Colin done or will it regenerate?
What are the models doing with the Carribean disturbance?

TIA


I think Colin is done. Colin's low level energy is getting absorbed into a trough to its northwest that will very shortly meet its demise due to the TUTT. The mid level energy will continue to go rapidly west and fade away.

In terms of the Caribbean disturbance, I'm not sure about the models, but I think it has a good chance to develop. It is starting to gain latitude now, pulling away from the heart of the east Caribbean dead zone, and is protected by an anticyclone. All of this is IMHO.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
SO what are ya'll thinking at 8pm 30% 40% ?


20%
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Quoting iammothernature:


side note: I'll try and be a little calmer and less aggressive and appear more "motherly" this time.

To the quote above: Do you two actually think that one day we will all be self sustainable on our own properties? With 30 million people living in metro areas like Tokyo, do you actually believe that some day in the future we will all spread out and become farm country? To me this is just so unlikely, that it was out of the question in my book, which is why I was mentioning population control the whole time.

And also in the quote above you mention 700sq ft is all that is needed to support one individual if managed properly. I could see that happening, however, the food needed to feed any animals you raise in that area would need to come from an external source. There is no way you could grow enough grass to feed 3 or 4 cows (I saw 3 or 4 because you need to have two to mate so that they can produce offspring and you can continue having cows on your property) in that tiny property. Which would mean, they would be taking up land in that area, and then it would have to be transported to you, suppose you took a horse, then you would need room for that animal too, as well as food.

So the reality ends up being, you need much more than 700 sq ft, and that isn't even including living space.


No ma'am. The 700 sq ft only applies to managed food intensive beds. Once you throw in animal proteins, the ratio of land needed to support skyrockets. You need about an acre per beef down here in north florida. Goats are a smaller space, and chickens can exist in quite a small space and graze very well in the intensive beds. Actually are encouraged to do so as an organic method of pest control, and for fertilizer.

As for the rest of your post, all I can say is bless you. There is a lot of research already done and published on the subject. I'm not a career scientist, but I have been a Master Gardener, and so sustainable Ag is a favorite subject. If you are interested in researching further, the link I posted earlier can refer you to lots of info.
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Quoting gator23:

isnt Colin already dead. Its it just a wave now? Did I miss something
Howdy!
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
are we going to get any cat 3 hiuuricane this year..i do not think so..right now. lets see what happern.
It's only August 3!!
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1841. JLPR2
Is the area of convection to the NW of the remains of Colin a TW?
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1840. oakland
gator23 you have WUmail.
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Quoting JenniferGirl:


NHC thinks it will regenerate, which some guy said is too early to tell, being it 5 days + out. Sorry. I once again don't remember the name of the guy. But, I agree with him.

Also- I have no one ignored, and likely never will.


Depends on how much someone ticks you off
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Let's say the remnants of Colin degenerate. Does that mean that they will name it TD-4 or 5?
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
SO what are ya'll thinking at 8pm 30% 40% ?
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1834. JLPR2
Quoting thelmores:
The only person on this blog I have ever ignored was JFV...... and that was way back in the middle of last Season...... It was either ignore him..... or I thought my head was going to explode! LOL


I have another certain, ''cool'' person on ignore too for the same reason. XD
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1832. Drakoen
Quoting thelmores:
What is your thoughts on the feature of the norther coast of SA Drak?

Pretty apparent you are interested! LOL


Interested in what it is doing. Not so much as anticipating development, though some development is possible as the system gets into the central and Western Caribbean.
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Quoting duajones78413:
Can someone answer my questions?
Is Colin done or will it regenerate?
What are the models doing with the Carribean disturbance?

TIA


NHC thinks it will regenerate, which some guy said is too early to tell, being it 5 days + out. Sorry. I once again don't remember the name of the guy. But, I agree with him.

Also- I have no one ignored, and likely never will.
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Quoting duajones78413:
Two questions for you folks.
Is Colin done or will it regenerate?
What are the models doing with the Carribean storm?

Colin is heading straight towards a ULL, It will eat it up and spit it out and there will be practically nothing left. the Twave might regenerate but Colin sadly is gone.
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Quoting JenniferGirl:
I wonder who holds the record for most people ignored.
Floodman had quite a list. "I purge mine at the start of each "season". Same folks different handle.
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The only person on this blog I have ever ignored was JFV...... and that was way back in the middle of last Season...... It was either ignore him..... or I thought my head was going to explode! LOL
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1826. JLPR2
Quoting JenniferGirl:


People have gotten really angry when they got banned, and attacked Wunderground in any way they can. For example, created new accounts with new emails condemning this place.


true, which shows immaturity -.-


Quoting muddertracker:


Too tolerent? I don't think so. I got banned for 24 hours for posting a picture of a shower curtain! (And NO, I didn't create any new accounts and terrorize the blog...lol)


Well then, you know shower curtains are bad for ya! XD

Quoting gator23:

and they all tend to live in the same region.


true :(
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Quoting JenniferGirl:
I wonder who holds the record for most people ignored.
Hi JenniferGirl. I don't know who holds the record for the most ignored but I could bet who is the most on ignore. LOL
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.