Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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evening snow. i'm out too. i need some chocolate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Snowlover123:
Okay, well since this isn't a Tropical Blog, I guess I'll c u guys tomorrow, if anything happens with the disturbance in the Caribbean. Night everyone.


It is don't leave. Just start talking about the tropics there just trying to over load with that other crap. That's what they want.
sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3652
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I totally agree, don't make Mother Nature mad. And I am not talking about the blogger with that name either.
Sheri


+1
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1922. IKE
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Pat was on today. I don't think I've seen Tim (TS)I really miss seeing alot of them to, this place has changed alot just look at some of the crap that goes on know. I wish they had a weed eater to weed out some of these bloggers that cause trouble and just love to start a argument.
Sheri


They do have a "weed eater". It's called your "ignore user" option. It's helps.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting mrsalagranny:
1907**Only God can determine who and when you will die.When you go trying to fool with mother nature the outcome is never good.


I totally agree, don't make Mother Nature mad. And I am not talking about the blogger with that name either.
Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3652
Longest gap between advisories? 5 days?

Ivan?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1451
Okay, well since this isn't a Tropical Blog, I guess I'll c u guys tomorrow, if anything happens with the disturbance in the Caribbean. Night everyone.
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Quoting IKE:


You're correct.


Yowzer!
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Quoting truecajun:
where have Patrap and tampaspin and the others listed gone?? stormW still swings in. surely if they would have gone to a new place they would have "invited" storm, drak, and levi and a few others. but then again, maybe they did and they just haven't left


Pat was on today. I don't think I've seen Tim (TS)I really miss seeing alot of them to, this place has changed alot just look at some of the crap that goes on know. I wish they had a weed eater to weed out some of these bloggers that cause trouble and just love to start a argument.
Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3652
1907**Only God can determine who and when you will die.When you go trying to fool with mother nature the outcome is never good.
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1914. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Now, this is a big freaken HIGH.



Ain't nothing getting near CONUS with this there


You're correct.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
UPDATE: Northern Lights are being sighted now in Europe. Jesper Grønne sends this picture from Denmark (latitude +56 degrees):


Rob Stammes sends this report from Laukvik, Lofoten, Norway: "At 17.40 UT, electrical currents began to flow throgh the ground outside my laboratory: data. This indicated the arrrival of the CME. Three hours later a geomagnetic storm is active, strong enough for auroras."

Red auroras are being sighted over Germany


i saw on the news that maryland may be able to see it
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1912. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
spaceweather.com

UPDATE: Northern Lights are being sighted now in Europe. Jesper Grnne sends this picture from Denmark (latitude 56 degrees):


Rob Stammes sends this report from Laukvik, Lofoten, Norway: "At 17.40 UT, electrical currents began to flow throgh the ground outside my laboratory: data. This indicated the arrrival of the CME. Three hours later a geomagnetic storm is active, strong enough for auroras."

Red auroras are being sighted over Germany
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Now, this is a big freaken HIGH.



Ain't nothing getting near CONUS with this there
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With the amount of 'garbage' being volleyed tonight... why would anyone waste the time... I'm surprised I just did.
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Reported! Every time for years there is trouble is this blog you are involved!


agree 100%
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3652
1908. GBguy88
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hail Stone Sets New World Record


Last Friday in Vivian South Dakota Les Scott found a rather large football sized chunk of ice that fell out of the sky. Little did he know at the time that mother nature had just sent him the largest hail stone on earth. The Midwestern plains are known for having some of largest hail storms in the world. In fact the last record holder occur ed in Nebraska and had a diameter of 7 inches with a circumference of 18.75" The new world record holder has a diameter of 8 inches and a circumference of 19". The stone weighted in at 1 pound 15 ounces. Les Scott thinks the stone could of been at least two pounds moments after it landed on the ground. He said the stone melted in the freezer, since the power was knocked out for 6 hours by the storm that created the record breaker.


WOW. I'd hate to see that crash into someone's car or skylight or something like that. Pretty awesome record to break!
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It is sort of shaped like a...

fish



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where have Patrap and tampaspin and the others listed gone?? stormW still swings in. surely if they would have gone to a new place they would have "invited" storm, drak, and levi and a few others. but then again, maybe they did and they just haven't left
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hail Stone Sets New World Record


Last Friday in Vivian South Dakota Les Scott found a rather large football sized chunk of ice that fell out of the sky. Little did he know at the time that mother nature had just sent him the largest hail stone on earth. The Midwestern plains are known for having some of largest hail storms in the world. In fact the last record holder occur ed in Nebraska and had a diameter of 7 inches with a circumference of 18.75" The new world record holder has a diameter of 8 inches and a circumference of 19". The stone weighted in at 1 pound 15 ounces. Les Scott thinks the stone could of been at least two pounds moments after it landed on the ground. He said the stone melted in the freezer, since the power was knocked out for 6 hours by the storm that created the record breaker.
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Good evening everyone.
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1899. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
KOG, just read on MSN that a solar tsunami will be visible in Alaska, Canada and some parts of North America tonight.


Space Weather Canada ISES Regional Warning Centre for Canada Geomagnetic Field - CURRENT STATUS 2010 08 03 23:45 UT


Polar
Active


Auroral
Stormy


Sub-Auroral
Stormy



Space Weather Canada
Magnetic activity review and forecast - Text version
--------------------------------------------------------
NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA
MAGNETIC ACTIVITY REVIEW AND FORECAST
2010-08-03 Day of year 215 issued at 23:45 UT
--------------------------------------------------------
LAST 24 HOURS
SUBAURORAL SUB Quiet + active intervals
AURORAL AUR Unsettled + stormy intervals
POLAR POL Unsettled + stormy intervals
--------------------------------------------------------
LAST 6 HOURS
SUBAURORAL SUB Active + stormy intervals
AURORAL AUR Stormy
POLAR POL Stormy
--------------------------------------------------------
NEXT 6 HOURS
SUBAURORAL SUB Stormy
AURORAL AUR Stormy
POLAR POL Stormy
--------------------------------------------------------
NEXT 24 HOURS
SUBAURORAL SUB Unsettled + stormy intervals
AURORAL AUR Active + stormy intervals
POLAR POL Active + stormy intervals
--------------------------------------------------------
FOLLOWING 24 HOURS
SUBAURORAL SUB Quiet
AURORAL AUR Quiet
POLAR POL Quiet
--------------------------------------------------------
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Quoting TXnovice:
"A newly developed Tropical Storm Colin is currently in the Gulf, but it's not expected to be any threat to land." KHOU.com

Funny typo! One little word (Gulf instead of Atlantic) and it will leave Houstonians wondering!

Too Funny! LOL!!!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5618
Good evening. On a solemn note, 04L has perished as it came from, and it's successor shall avenge its death.
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Quoting xcool:
Time to Tone Down Hurricane Season Prognostications?
August 3, 2010 · 0 comments

With a third of the Atlantic hurricane season over and just three storms named (albeit accompanied by two tropical depressions), should hurricane season prognosticators consider backing down from their early season forecasts of a wild season? And we’re not just talking about one or two Punxatawny Phils here — this year realized eight separate forecasts of named storms and hurricanes for the six-month season, which began June 1. Predictions of the number of named storms ranged from 17 to a lofty 23 — far above the average of 11 named storms realized over the last 60 years.






real meat of hurricane season is from mid August through mid October, when about 90% of a season’s storms form. Based on the May and June forecasts, that would equate to about 15-21 tropical storms and hurricanes — still a substantially busy season. But the chatter has begun on the blogs (2nd topic on this page) and in the online and mainstream news that this year will not be like 2005. By this point in that season the Atlantic had already seen eight named storms, including two major hurricanes. The 2005 season went on to realize 27 named storms, including Category 5 Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, and one unnamed storm added to the tally in the post-season.

So what drove the early season forecasts? And why might they need to be lowered? As in 2005, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Atlantic basin have been well above average since spring. In fact, record warm SSTs have dominated the main tropical cyclone development region—from 10°N to 20°N between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W – 80°W)—for five consecutive months (see the 2nd topic entry on this page). Combine that with lower-than-normal surface pressure basin wide and the fact that El Niño was not ending but appeared poised to transition to La Niña conditions (which it did) in the tropical Pacific, both of which are factors that can lead to more than the usual number of storms, and forecasters had almost no choice but to set their sights rather high. Conditions appeared very favorable for a quick start to a long and busy season, not unlike 2005.

Problem is, that hasn’t happened. The tropical cyclones that have developed this year have struggled. Despite all the favorable features, it appears dry air and more importantly strong wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in June and July have kept storms in check. Typically, the atmosphere over the Atlantic Basin moistens significantly starting in August as the westward-moving Saharan dust outbreaks wane. And seasonal wind shear also becomes more conducive for storm development by August. Still, the next four months would need to see the pace of tropical storm and hurricane formation come fast and furious to realize the forecasts. It could happen: in 1995, 16 tropical storms and hurricanes, including five major hurricanes, formed one after another after another from the last days of July through the end of October, leaving just 10 days in the three-month period free of any storms. But that kind of hurricane history isn’t likely to repeat itself. Even 2005 had more storm-free days in the same portion of the season.

So what will forecasters do? Time will tell as two of the leading forecast teams—NOAA and the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, led by Phil Klotzbach and William Gray—update their forecasts this week. (Check these links for their updated forecasts: CSU (Aug. 4) and NOAA (Aug. 5).




Link


I think most of us are relatively certain that the season isn't going to be as active as initially predicted. But that's completely irrelevant.

Well, maybe not completely; it shows that we still need to do some additional research on the preseason factors, so that we can better forecast their behavior.
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One would think with all this Heat and Higher Water Temps than Normal that 1 or 2 of these storms could develop into very strong Hurricanes, that has to be a concern for alot of people out there. We may not get 20 or 25 storms but the chances for some being Cat 4 or 5's has to be increased.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
How much land for wood, roads, airports, factories?

I just calculated the size of the square each person would have if the land area of the world were subdivided evenly for each person (excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) would be 462 feet on a side. Or about 212,700 square feet.


That's actually quite a lot, I'm surprised. But that also includes mountains and deserts, and arctic tundra regions and tropical rain forests, as well as many other places which are not well suited for human living or are just places most humans won't want to live.
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Quite a change in tune with the Caribbean disturbance. From unfavorable to favorable for gradual development.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23499
1886. trey33
Quoting TXnovice:
"A newly developed Tropical Storm Colin is currently in the Gulf, but it's not expected to be any threat to land." KHOU.com

Funny typo! One little word (Gulf instead of Atlantic) and it will leave Houstonians wondering!


oops....!
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1884. beell
Quoting BreadandCircuses:


So you agree with Obama's science czar John Holdren's modest proposal that was in his book Ecoscience, that something must be done to solve the population crisis? I do as well, particularly the sterilants in the water and compulsary abortions, but we need to get started on his plan ASAP before we have complete ecological collapse.

Remember the equation:
C02 = P (people) x S (services per person) x E (energy per service) x C (C02 per unit of energy). I'm glad that you are in agreement that the P in that equation must be greatly reduced to solve the AGW problem.

Welcome aboard, comrade.


you first...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we could seee 92L tonight or wed


Yep.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
There is nothing wrong with this blog, follow all the Rules and you won't have an issue, don't and you will.

amen... like tv and radio you can pick and choose whom you want to look or listen too. I have no one on ignore.... I don't find myself better or worse for it...
y'all chill and talk about weather already....
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1880. xcool
1872.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
1879. xcool
READ MY POSTING
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
"A newly developed Tropical Storm Colin is currently in the Gulf, but it's not expected to be any threat to land." KHOU.com

Funny typo! One little word (Gulf instead of Atlantic) and it will leave Houstonians wondering!
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1877. xcool
maybe 92L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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