Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Unrelated, but beautiful dogs in your profile picture.


Yes, Breald, they really are!
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Haha you are poofing some of the better people on this blog. On a side note you have to be careful what you beleive on this blog. there is a lot of junk and a lot of good. For example, there is a near zero shot for Colin to form back up. Conditions highly unfavorable however everyone has a right to their own opinion even if it is a bad one :)


Thank you HR for answering my question
Sheri
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


You point out in that statement where I even said GW.Go talk your trash somewhere else. POOF

Haha you are poofing some of the better people on this blog. On a side note you have to be careful what you beleive on this blog. there is a lot of junk and a lot of good. For example, there is a near zero shot for Colin to form back up. Conditions highly unfavorable however everyone has a right to their own opinion even if it is a bad one :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
and for a matter a fact the bam suite looks interesting,expect the others to begin to trend this way imo!!!


Hopefully there will be nothing left of Colin for any of this to even have a chance of occurring.
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2019. breald
Quoting heretolearninPR:


Presslord would be so upset if someone said that Colin will regenerate and hit the Carolinas. lol


He hated when you didn't differentiate between North and South....LOL
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2017. Skyepony (Mod)
The fire weather wears on in Russia. Atleast 40 dead thousands of homes & many whole communities lost. Sounds like some really tense battles going on around some nuclear power plants..
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Quoting heretolearninPR:


Presslord would be so upset if someone said that Colin will regenerate and hit the Carolinas. lol


Every time someone writes the word 'Carolinas' I think of Press. :)
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and for a matter a fact the bam suite looks interesting,expect the others to begin to trend this way imo!!!
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Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11342
Quoting TexasGulf:


Global Warming is undeniable. "Man-Made" Global Warming is still deniable... at least to a certain extent. We don't know all of the causes or how much of a contributing factor certain activities are, so it is dangerous to legislate a "fix" when we don't understand the problem fully.

That said, the extent of man-made pollution is undeniable. We ought to stop focusing so much on CO2 emissions and instead focus on the other things we're doing to wreak havoc in our ecosystem that impact life much more than CO2 does. We're worried about coal burning plants which 'probably' cause future warming, but in many countries they still spray DDT inside of houses to kill flies.

In perspective, if the human race doesn't get a handle on the pesticides, chemicals, heavy metals and petroleum products that we release into the atmosphere and landfills (and into streams & oceans)... we may not be around long enough to worry about the effects of global warming. Some food chains are already being stretched to the breaking point.


But it's not "future warming", as you said; it's now, and it has been for the past several decades. Yes, we've treated our home horribly, and in a lot of different ways, including with overuse of pesticides. And all those things need to be addressed. But while rampant pesticide use is certainly near the top of the list, controlling and drastically decreasing the CO2 emissions that have caused the planet to warm up is probably Public Enemy #1. Now, you wrote that it'd be "dangerous to legislate a 'fix' when we don't understand the problem fully"...but I contend that, while science is still working out the details, it's pretty obvious that we understand the problem very well, and we need to act, and act now.
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Wow I may see some rain this evening.Mobile is under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
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bams and bamm take colin into the central fl's east coast....
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Quoting bappit:

He always emphasized what he did not know AND was entertaining. I miss the heck out of the bum.


Presslord would be so upset if someone said that Colin will regenerate and hit the Carolinas. lol
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Quoting largeeyes:
Cape, my guess is the aurora's may come to mid latitudes, but this can be a true guessing game as far as displays go.
Aurora's projected visibility
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Things to note, and more things to note:

1.) Colin has degenerated into a Remnant Low, but there is a good possibility of it becoming a Tropical Storm again in about 5-7 days.

2.) The Eastern Caribbean Wave has model support, could become Tropical Depression #5 or Tropical Storm Danielle.

3.) The wave behind RL Colin is in a favorable enviroment, will need to be watched for development... Has Model Support Also.

4.) The wave emerging off Africa has model support, could become Tropical Depression #7 or even attain a higher category above that later in its time.
-----------------------------------------------

1.) Remember 90L a long time ago? It was probably a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm...(Could have been Alex)

2.) Remember 92L a while ago? That was more than likely a Tropical Storm...(Could have been Bonnie)

3.) Remember 95L a little while ago? That was possibly a Tropical Storm in my opinion...(Could have been Colin)

4.) Remember TD #2 earlier last month? If it had a couple more hours over water, it would have been a Tropical Storm...(Could have been Danielle)

5.) Remember 98L late last month? It it had another day or two over water, it could have became a Tropical Storm...(Could have been Earl, or whatever his name is)

6.) That means, the actual Bonnie would have been Fiona.

7.) That means Colin would have been Gaston.
-----------------------------------------------

Thats 7 named storms right there! Some of these will be upgraded in post-season, like 92L.
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2004. breald
Quoting KoritheMan:


:(


I carry a drool cloth with me when I take them out in public.
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2002. Patrap


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Quoting breald:


They are Great Pyrenees. Very even tempered, active but not overly hyper, great watch dogs. Awesome dogs. They do tend to drool a lot though.


:(
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1999. SLU
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 28KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 49.3W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 31KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 44.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
i bet the llc moves close to pr(within 100nm)....
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Quoting CapeObserver:


It's really sad when the childishness on here runs off some of the best. Most of the time it's the adults, not the kids that are most responsible. I don't blame the valued for not wanting to stick around. They can take their skills and go anywhere. Unfortunately, for those of us far less skilled, it is a loss.

This is not a tropical blog once again. GW was a topic of an earlier blog. This blog addresses many subjects to include the tropics. Sorry if they get their feelings hurt that people talk about what is actually in the blogs.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
covection firing over colins llc,will it sustain and expand...


Probably not, because it hasn't decelerated yet. Hence, lack of low-level convergence.
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1994. breald
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unrelated, but beautiful dogs in your profile picture.


They are Great Pyrenees. Very even tempered, active but not overly hyper, great watch dogs. Awesome dogs. They do tend to drool a lot though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening all. StormW, thanks for the "to the point" update. I look forward to your insight and sharing or knowledge. Well, guess I'll continue on with getting the storm shutters ready for the new house. It just seams like with all the heat energy out there, especially in the GOM, when we get a storm in the Gulf, all hell is going to let loose. And Houston may or may not get spared so soon after Ike.
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covection firing over colins llc,will it sustain and expand...
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1991. Patrap
Floodman and his wife did outstanding work for the portlight Haiti Relief Effort as well as others who actually spent Time in Haiti distributing the goods sent ,by Air,Schooner,and other modes to that devastated region.

From Water purification units to Crutches to Shelters,..
A relatively small Non Profit is making a difference in Lives far removed from here.

And with the kind support of the wunderground,and Dr. Masters, The christopher reeve foundation,,and a base of over 2500 donors,,.We look forward to many years of growth and continued work to make the mission work everyday.


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no 92L yet
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Quoting Patrap:
NOAA: Global Warming "undeniable"


Global warning is "undeniable" says a new report published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)


Global Warming is undeniable. "Man-Made" Global Warming is still deniable... at least to a certain extent. We don't know all of the causes or how much of a contributing factor certain activities are, so it is dangerous to legislate a "fix" when we don't understand the problem fully.

That said, the extent of man-made pollution is undeniable. We ought to stop focusing so much on CO2 emissions and instead focus on the other things we're doing to wreak havoc in our ecosystem that impact life much more than CO2 does. We're worried about coal burning plants which 'probably' cause future warming, but in many countries they still spray DDT inside of houses to kill flies.

In perspective, if the human race doesn't get a handle on the pesticides, chemicals, heavy metals and petroleum products that we release into the atmosphere and landfills (and into streams & oceans)... we may not be around long enough to worry about the effects of global warming. Some food chains are already being stretched to the breaking point.
Member Since: April 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 354
Quoting largeeyes:
Cape, my guess is the aurora's may come to mid latitudes, but this can be a true guessing game as far as displays go.


I love where I live but what I wouldn't give to witness this for myself just once.
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1986. bappit
Quoting CapeObserver:


I miss Press' witty banter. Not only is he knowledgeable he is entertaining!

He always emphasized what he did not know AND was entertaining. I miss the heck out of the bum.
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Quoting Patrap:


We speak daily.

He is aputting a lot of effort as well as a lot of other folks behind the scenes to be ready in case Calamity befalls some region.

The Portlight Mission is to Serve the Disabled,the undereserevd and the forgotten in times of Disaster.


The work you guys do with Portlight is invaluable! I commend you all!! Many are grateful that you are always at the ready.
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Cape, my guess is the aurora's may come to mid latitudes, but this can be a true guessing game as far as displays go.
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AL 04 2010080400 BEST 0 163N 547W 30 1008 LO


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 28KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 49.3W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 31KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 44.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11342
1982. bappit
We still have all the ingredients for a dangerously active season.

It ain't the season that kills people, it is the storms during the season. Telling me the season will be active is one thing. Calling it dangerous is misleading. Heck, we could have a single storm (oh, say, Andrew) and have a heckuva dangerous season. I'm a bit tired of the season hype.
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1980. Patrap
Quoting CapeObserver:


I miss Press' witty banter. Not only is he knowledgeable he is entertaining!


We speak daily.

He is putting a lot of effort as well as a lot of other folks behind the scenes to be ready in case Calamity befalls some region this season.

The Portlight Mission is to Serve the Disabled,the under serevd and the forgotten in times of Disaster.
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1979. Engine2
Great as usual Storm thanks!
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Quoting breald:


I might be missing them if they do come around.


Unrelated, but beautiful dogs in your profile picture.
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Quoting NOSinger:
Storm....do any of the models pick up on the disturbance in the SE Carib??


I'm not Storm, but I can answer your question nonetheless.

Yes, several of the models hint at development of this feature, but they are not as bullish as they were 24 hours ago. I think this is because they keep the system close to Central America throughout the next several days.

Contrary to that thought, I feel that the system will gradually gain latitude over the next several days, but not as drastic as the GFS was showing this time yesterday, when it had a major hurricane hitting southeast Louisiana.
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1976. breald
Thanks Pat!!
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1975. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Snowlover123:


What does everyone think of the Caribbean disturbance, since 04L won't regenerate according to the NHC?


The NHC final (for now) forecast on 04L Colin has it regenerating in 5 days..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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