Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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2125. help4u
92l running straight into Mexico.They have had enough storms already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have 98L! Er, I mean 92L!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
aquak9


Your waves are looking a little better.
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Quoting robj144:


Especially since it's on the equator. :) It would never spin.


It's just the default position.. They haven't put in the coordinates yet. It's at 0 degrees and 0 degrees. Equator and Prime Meridian.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2119. Zeec94
TROLL TROLL TROLL! lmao jk

But the invest will be something to watch. Still I wouldn't rule out the idea of Colin regenerating. I would say Bermuda and people on the East Coast should not let their guard down just yet.
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cant wait for 92L mode runs too come out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
2117. robj144
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Yeah Robj.I was just saying that Colin has made a path for waves coming off Africa.Im sorry if I didnt word it right.Im no meterologist by no means.LOL!!!!!!


Oh, I see. :) No worries.
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2115. robj144
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
WOW HOW DID INVEST 92l get over there this map is crazy.


Especially since it's on the equator. :) It would never spin.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
any ch of this wave going under a RI


Rhode Island is outta the picture for this one. LOL
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Yeah Robj.I was just saying that Colin has made a path for waves coming off Africa.Im sorry if I didnt word it right.Im no meterologist by no means.LOL!!!!!!
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2112. BDADUDE
Whats a troll??
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Ahh A week off from work, boiled peanuts, Vortex Miller Lite, Wunderground and storms to track. It don't get no better than this.

Beware the Trolls will sniff out 92L any minute and will dive bomb the blog
92L what a joke, headin for da land
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am so cut
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting aquak9:
Beware the Trolls will sniff out 92L any minute and will dive bomb the blog

Yep! I'm here!! :)


LMAO, you are the furthest thing from a Troll
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any ch of this wave going under a RI
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
2106. breald
We have 92 & 98? The only thing I saw was 98.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



oh did you pick up the beer where going too need a 50 pack or too a round of beer for evere one


on me


Yay! I'm in....
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Quoting StormW:
IR2 satellite loop of the Caribbean indicates a circulation trying to get going with 92L, close to the coast. Would coincide with the 850mb vorticity:

IR2 LOOP



Decay-SHIPS forecasts 98L to reach 64kts before it has it moving inland. Certainly possible, and maybe even conservative IMO with the heat content it is forecasting.
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2103. aquak9
Beware the Trolls will sniff out 92L any minute and will dive bomb the blog

Yep! I'm here!! :)
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2101. robj144
Quoting Neapolitan:


I was in Lake City. I know, that's almost southern Georgia...but, still... ;-)


I have no idea where Lake City is though. Just that it's southern Georgia. :)
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2100. Drakoen
The SHIPS initialized shear as being 0 knots over the system.
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00z SHIPS for Colin shows that we shouldn't count out the possibility for regeneration. It shows the shear weakening after 48 hours.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Pay no attention to the number, they deactivated it in favor of 92L





LOL its heading for MX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Ahh A week off from work, boiled peanuts, Vortex Miller Lite, Wunderground and storms to track. It don't get no better than this.

Beware the Trolls will sniff out 92L any minute and will dive bomb the blog
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Pay no attention to the number, they deactivated it in favor of 92L


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Lol well invest 98L was the shortest lived invest ever. I know it was a mess up though.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting Tazmanian:



oh did you pick up the beer where going too need a 50 pack or too a round of beer for evere one


on me


I got the beer handy. :)
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2092. Ossqss
If interested, an interesting read. L8R

Ice Core Drilling Effort Will Help Assess Abrupt Climate Change Risks - ScienceDaily (Aug. 2, 2010)

"Led by Denmark and the United States, the team recovered ice from the Eemian interglacial period from about 115,000 to 130,000 years ago, a time when temperatures were 3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit above today's temperatures. During the Eemian -- the most recent interglacial period on Earth"
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Quoting robj144:


Where did you see the 2003 show?


I was in Lake City. I know, that's almost southern Georgia...but, still... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
2090. OneDrop
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
hold on how do we have invest 98L SOMETHING IS NOT RIGHT HERE.
Why don't you email your "connection" at the NHC and ask him/her.
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Quoting WindynEYW:
Aurora's projected visibility

First time I have ever seen Accuweather do that. I'd say it is a little more optimistic than what they are showing. Take a look at the auroral oval posted at spaceweather.com as well. If you have clear dark skies, take a peek and see what's out there. Lower latitudes can often see some of the colors without all the "waves" that people think of with auroras.
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2088. robj144
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I think Colin paved the way for the tropics.


Isn't the latest invest in front if Colin - to the east?
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Move over Walter, I'm hiding in the box with you.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Same.



oh did you pick up the beer where going too need a 50 pack or too a round of beer for evere one


on me
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes.


Rut Row
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am looking forword too mode runs for 92L


Same.
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I think Colin paved the way for the tropics.
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2081. robj144
Quoting Neapolitan:


I've been in Florida off and on since 1979, and have seen them a few times (though never in deep South Florida). The prettiest was the first of April in 2001--lots of reds--but the best overall were the 2003 Halloween auroras (from the biggest solar flare ever recorded). Awesome. (I've lived in Minnesota and Montana, too, but the best I ever saw was a full sky of sea-foam green in Wyoming in 1972. And I mean full sky; the aurora touched the horizon in every direction...


Where did you see the 2003 show?
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Is this what the GFS was picking up on a couple of days ago and showed a cane in the GOM?


Yes.
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am looking forword too mode runs for 92L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting Drakoen:
We do have 92L...lol


Is this what the GFS was picking up on a couple of days ago and showed a cane in the GOM?
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LOL 97E back from the dead
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Interplanetary mag. field isn't helping a lot for a big aurora show. It's south, but not by much.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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