Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That GFS model, correct me if I am wrong, shows the ULL in the western Caribbean moving into the western Gulf of Mexico, and has the ULL presently to the NW of Colin in the Bahamas?

For 92L, that means yes the ULL in the western Caribbean will move westward and away, allowing 92L to keep the anticyclone over it and develop. 92L has some potential to be the most significant system we have had this year since Alex. But before even getting to that discussion, we need to see this develop into a tropical depression first.
Agree, but it is interesting that StormW noted a week or two ago that he thought most of our troubles would form closer to home and not be CV systems, much like 2005 was. 92l could prove him correct.
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Quoting tkeith:
the new NHC math :)

evenin Kman


Now I am really confused
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2273. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

How did we wind up with 98L ?


92L, actually, and it's that nice little wave in the Caribbean with a favorable environment ahead of it. Could try to cause some mischief in a couple days.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Yes, it is:



Indeed.

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2271. tkeith
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

How did we wind up with 98L ?
the new NHC math :)

evenin Kman
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

How did we wind up with 98L ?


You missed 92, 93, 94, 95, 96 and 97 LOL
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Quoting KoritheMan:
The Caribbean wave is now an invest.
Where r u seeing this, Kori?
Quoting Skyepony:
The floods currently battering Pakistan are the worst the nation has seen in 80 years. It's estimated that the floods have affected 3.2 million people, amid warnings of even more flooding and further devastation. Triggered by monsoon rains, flooding has killed at least 1,500 people, the majority in the country's northwest.
Wasn't the MJO over the Indian ocean the last couple days?

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


The aurora display of Aug. 4th 1972 was visible in the Bahamas.
Uh.... I had a 8 p.m. curfew back then... definitely was not awake to see that.... lol
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Good evening

How did we wind up with 98L ?
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2266. robj144
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The storm cluster about to move into the Atlantic north of Dakar is probably too far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic. However the storm cluster behind it may have a better chance, being further south.


Is the water not warm enough for northern cluster?
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Quoting HouGalv08:
That why I almost got sick to my stomach. We all know what the heat content is in the Carib. and GOM. I think any storm in the GOM under the right conditions aloft and we'll witness another Katrina or Rita like storm.


Wow. Way to early to tell. You thought it was bad earlier on the blog. Let's just say that we get a tropical cyclone in the Western Caribbean, it will be mass panic and chaos. Plus, I'm tired of hearing about the K storm.
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2263. aquak9
D'fly- I'm glad you're not mother nature. She was in here earlier, and she wasn't very nice.
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Pouch Synopsis for the system moving off the African coast.
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2261. help4u
Just telling you what he said.
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Quoting Levi32:
In 3 days the GFS has a nice upper anticyclone over the western Caribbean where 92L will be.



That GFS model, correct me if I am wrong, shows the ULL in the western Caribbean moving into the western Gulf of Mexico, and has the ULL presently to the NW of Colin in the Bahamas?

For 92L, that means yes the ULL in the western Caribbean will move westward and away, allowing 92L to keep the anticyclone over it and develop. 92L has some potential to be the most significant system we have had this year since Alex. But before even getting to that discussion, we need to see this develop into a tropical depression first.
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Did FSU ever release their "supermodel" to the public?
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2257. Ossqss
Click to enlarge. I wonder how this will change moving forward.



Little further North



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Quoting tkeith:
92L is all earthlydragonflys fault...

he told me not to look...but I looked


I certianly am not mother nature... Im just a model watcher.. LOL Super models that is...
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Quoting tkeith:
I keel them...

:)


Silence!
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2254. amd
Quoting tkeith:
I'd be interested to know that answer...


yesterday's 18Z GFS showed this system being a hurricane in the gulf.

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Quoting extreme236:
You know, not all convective masses over Africa are tropical waves....


I know, but isn't that gonna be once it hits the Atlantic?
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2252. aquak9
problem is, spathy...ain't no fish in the Gulf.
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2251. tkeith
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Two of the folks in here said that it was
I keel them...

:)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
Yikes! That is a monster of a wave, let's hope conditions remain unfavorable.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like, Colin might regenerate, 92L might develop, and the models are hinting at development off Africa particularly the CMC and the Euro, the Euro develops two. Unlikely, but imagine if we get up to Fiona by next week.



now that would be some in
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Quoting help4u:
I did, Storm W said same thing,it will not go that far north.


He hasn't even done his full analysis on it, come back in the morning and we'll see
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You know, not all convective masses over Africa are tropical waves....
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Looks like, Colin might regenerate, 92L might develop, and the models are hinting at development off Africa particularly the CMC and the Euro, the Euro develops two. Unlikely, but imagine if we get up to Fiona by next week.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23575
2245. help4u
I did, Storm W said same thing,it will not go that far north.
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The next up and coming discussion.

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2242. tkeith
92L is all earthlydragonflys fault...

he told me not to look...but I looked
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
That is one scary wave looking to leave the West Coast of Africa


Yes, it is:

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
Quoting tkeith:
I'd be interested to know that answer...


Two of the folks in here said that it was
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Quoting Levi32:
In 3 days the GFS has a nice upper anticyclone over the western Caribbean where 92L will be.




nic
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Quoting Levi32:


West into central America, but they don't really develop it.




think the mode runs may be a little off i think the mode runs where ment for 98L
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2237. tkeith
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Is this what the GFS was picking up on a couple of days ago and showed a cane in the GOM?
I'd be interested to know that answer...
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2236. Levi32
In 3 days the GFS has a nice upper anticyclone over the western Caribbean where 92L will be.

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Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
Cyber Teddy. Please tell me you got some of this storm tonight. StormW it was quite the light show driving home.


No I didn't! :( I didn't even get a sprinkle, the entire storm complex just developed around me and moved westward.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23575
Quoting StormW:
Good night everyone! Up early tomorrow.



wait dont go there a bear in you bed
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You can have the hottest SSTs in the world, but that doesn't always translate into a tropical system.
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2231. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
Good night everyone! Up early tomorrow.


Night Storm!
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2230. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:



what do mode runs show for 92L?


West into central America, but they don't really develop it.
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thing sure pick up in here now that we have 92L


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2227. aquak9
Dewey- one word:

SUNSCREEN
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2225. EricSFL
Ok, Ive heard this so much that my ears hurt: "strong (deep) systems go poleward and weak systems go westward"... But, why is this not the case with ExColin? Is it because the trough is so strong that it is affecting all levels of the atmosphere?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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