Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


Yep...Phil sent me that email saying they wouldn't change.


Dr. Phil or Phil Simms?
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3172. unf97
Good morning everyone!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Are you for Real???

Are you Mad?

Look at the Temps in the gulf! Do you want another Katrina?

You Need to be Run over with a truck!!


Quite amusing!
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Morning all.

I'd say that we just need to keep the tropics in the back of our heads for the time being. I don't foresee anything major within the next day or so. There could some regeneration of Colin or development of 92L in a few days, but not soon. I'll keep one eye on these, and the other on the heat that is hitting the Northeast yet again.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's JB this morn.

WEDNESDAY 7 AM
CLASSIC DISTORTION IF ONE DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE SITE:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/las-vegans-swelter-through-month-of-record-heat-998105 49.html

The claim it was the hottest month every in Las Vegas has to be looked at with a bit more scrutiny. The Las Vegas records go back to the time of Elvis, when the airport was out in the desert relatively speaking and it could get much cooler at night! Ever been to Las Vegas. The airport is in an almost urban setting now, not conducive to the kind of desert cool that can show up at night. This can be readily seen in the fact that NIGHTS AVERAGED AROUND 9.5 ABOVE NORMAL! DAYS WERE ONLY 2.9 ABOVE NORMAL! You do the math as to what is going on here.

The July records go back to the 1930s. Until Moe Green and the Corleones got out there after ww2, Las Vegas had almost nothing ( see the Godfather please..all three versions, one after another.. as it should be viewed) But the fact is that the journalist doing the article, in typical journalist style today, refuses to go beyond what actually happened. Given the cool of the desert back then, this month may have just been a couple above normal, comparable to what the highs were in relation to normal, which were urban heat islanded to some degree anyway, but not like what happens at night.

This is the tip of the iceberg with a data gathering problem that is being exploited by those wishing to shove an agenda down the throat of the American people. Case in point.. July will be the hottest month ever occurring to that bunch, expect that to come out. Yet the satellite data shows it behind 1998, and the drop that is starting will assure us this peak did not reach the peak of the last Nino.

Distortion and hiding of the facts, pure and simple.


It's obvious JB likes to hear his own voice, but still, isn't it about time that someone explain to that chest-beating fool that simply spouting rhetoric without offering a single shred of proof is just silly? (And I'd like him, for starters, to say just what he means by "shoving an agenda down the throat of the American people". Is that kinda like when your doctor "shoves his agenda down your throat" when he breaks the news that you have heart disease and need to stop eating junk food and smoking cigarettes now? Darn those "agenda driven" people!)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
For Floridians, Andrew in an El Nino year, in late August, shattered any perceptions about the actual numbers and timing.
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Quoting Patrap:
The numbers dont mean squat as they cant say when, nor where.

Its more ego posturing than anything.

If they spent 10% of what they do on the numbers across the board,to Preparedness and education,we would have a much better aware Public.


So the numbers to me..are MOOT as where a storms been,,as to where itsa going.


Well said Pat
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For Texas, I always use Rita's date as the last major hurricane that can affect us. Texas has seen hurricanes in October but not majors. So once we get past late September I breathe a sigh of relief.
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3162. SLU
I agree with CSU's "updated" forecast 1000000%
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3161. Patrap
Fascinating..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125552
3159. Patrap
The numbers dont mean squat as they cant say when, nor where.

Its more ego posturing than anything.

If they spent 10% of what they do on the numbers across the board,to Preparedness and education,we would have a much better aware Public.


So the numbers to me..are MOOT as where a storms been,,as to where itsa going.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125552
Dr. Gray didn't lower his predictions lol. 18 storms still.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
3157. will45
Quoting AllStar17:
When does Recon. take off for ex-Colin?

Does recon. have any flights scheduled into 92L?



000
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 02 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRRESSION FOUR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0104A CYCLONE
C. 04/1000Z
D. 18.4N 57.4W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIXES AT 05/0000Z
AND 05/0600Z. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Quick Navigation Link
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3155. Drakoen
There was no reason for the CSU team to change their forecast. It remains the same as I expected.
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Tropical Update
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When does Recon. take off for ex-Colin?

Does recon. have any flights scheduled into 92L?
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Storm if that's the case, then storms are gonna pop up outta nowhere coming soon, or storms into December
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So Dr. Gray says: "We have maintained our forecast from early June and continue to call for a very active Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2010 due to unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of La Nina. We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."

He now says 18/10/5. That is, no change since his June forecast.

PDF here
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
Link
CSU update
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
Models seem to be really hittin on a hard right turn for ex-Colin. With ex-him being weakened, why is the trough pulling him so hard? I assume that's what's supposed to make him do that.....
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13263
Quoting Squid28:
I have a question about the recon flights...

How do you differentiate between a G-IV flight and a regular HH mission? Aren't they all deignated as a TealXX ?


TealXX are Air Force C130

NOAA 49 is Gulfstream IV

NOAA 42/43 are P3
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Quoting StormW:


COLIN REMNANT LOW / INVEST 92L SYNOPSIS AUG. 04, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.


Thanks Storm.. I like the line that tracks it inot the central gulf.. Need some rain bad!!!!!
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3143. Squid28
Quoting NOSinger:
Storm...any timetable on when 92L may be approaching the Yucatan or that vacinity...going on a cruise this sat.??


Some of the local media outlets (Houston) love to go down to the cruise terminal in Galveston and show all the passengers disembarking from the cruise ship when a storm is blowing in the gulf. They like to show the now green passengers and the comments about a rolling ship, and only getting to see New Orleans and Florida or something like that instead of Cancun for the week.

It is a lot like the old "so what did the tornado sound like?" type report.....

I really hope your trip turns out better than those have....

Also, all the people that left cars in Galveston when the cruise lines set sail before Ike roared ashore, lost their vehicles to the surge. Most of the passengers were let off in New Orleans, and had to figure out how to get home themselves. They also were not told about their cars for the most part, they figured that one out when they went to pick them up...


Link
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3142. will45
Quoting Squid28:
I have a question about the recon flights...

How do you differentiate between a G-IV flight and a regular HH mission? Aren't they all deignated as a TealXX ?


by the height listed in the mission . HH is surface to 15000 and noaa is upper level
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As to the pending numbers update from CSU, with La Nina conditions (see below) I would not expect a substantial drop in the numbers. Actually, if you look at all the "potential" out there at the moment, including Colin, it has been a pretty active late-July to early August........This activity will probably increase in the coming weeks:

La Niña continues to develop in the Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 4 August 2010 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

All indicators in the Pacific Ocean show that we are now in the early stages of a La Niña event. Computer models predict the central Pacific will continue to cool in coming months, indicating some further strengthening of the event is likely.

Signs of an emerging La Niña event have been apparent in the equatorial Pacific for several months. Pacific Ocean temperatures have cooled steadily throughout the year, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has increased in value and is currently around +21, trade winds continue to be stronger than average and cloudiness has remained suppressed over the central Pacific. All of these key indicators have now reached or exceed La Niña levels.

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Night time temperatures are typically warmer than average and Tropical Cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November-April).

Next update expected by 18 August 2010 | print version
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Here's JB this morn.

WEDNESDAY 7 AM
CLASSIC DISTORTION IF ONE DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE SITE:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/las-vegans-swelter-through-month-of-record-heat-998105 49.html

The claim it was the hottest month every in Las Vegas has to be looked at with a bit more scrutiny. The Las Vegas records go back to the time of Elvis, when the airport was out in the desert relatively speaking and it could get much cooler at night! Ever been to Las Vegas. The airport is in an almost urban setting now, not conducive to the kind of desert cool that can show up at night. This can be readily seen in the fact that NIGHTS AVERAGED AROUND 9.5 ABOVE NORMAL! DAYS WERE ONLY 2.9 ABOVE NORMAL! You do the math as to what is going on here.

The July records go back to the 1930s. Until Moe Green and the Corleones got out there after ww2, Las Vegas had almost nothing ( see the Godfather please..all three versions, one after another.. as it should be viewed) But the fact is that the journalist doing the article, in typical journalist style today, refuses to go beyond what actually happened. Given the cool of the desert back then, this month may have just been a couple above normal, comparable to what the highs were in relation to normal, which were urban heat islanded to some degree anyway, but not like what happens at night.

This is the tip of the iceberg with a data gathering problem that is being exploited by those wishing to shove an agenda down the throat of the American people. Case in point.. July will be the hottest month ever occurring to that bunch, expect that to come out. Yet the satellite data shows it behind 1998, and the drop that is starting will assure us this peak did not reach the peak of the last Nino.

Distortion and hiding of the facts, pure and simple.

Now to other things.

Colin is reforming and I think this will become a hurricane sometime in its life. However, the wave that was out in front yesterday has slowed considerable and is punching a hole in the ridge. While there is still a chance it can get back further west, its intensification now will mean it starts looking for the way out. The modeling is seeing that and while I am not yet ready to say, thats it, I see how this happens now.

That doesnt mean there are not problems early next week near the mid atlantic coast or the Carolinas, since the front left in there has a shot, Colin entrained or not, to cause problems. Its just that even though Colin is well south of the forecasted ideas from a couple of days ago

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

( it looks to be getting ready to cross 60 west at 18 north, not near 20.5 north, a 150 mile difference) in the end, it may not get as far west. Good thing,. Look for the Storm hatchers to up their level of concern today.. I do believe this will come back.

The system in the Caribbean is also getting better organized but the models are pretty far south with this. Still I want to see where its low to mid level vort center is before I commit to central America

The front that is coming down may not only be a problem for the Carolinas but also for the northern gulf. The Euro has an Eduaord look too it (2008) in the longer term.

And the system I think that will be named, whether anything comes out of the other areas, will come out of the large area of clouds southwest of the Cape Verdes. That should be classified by the weekend.

in 2005 I turned down and offer for 3 days on Bermuda in Sep because I knew the hurricane season was going to be wild ( the offer was made before June) and I did not want to be away when storms were around. The weekend I was supposed to go out there was the weekend of Rita.

I did not go to the Bahamas this year because I thought our trip could get messed up by the tropics. While much of the week we would have been down there was okay, we would not have been able to fly in the day we were scheduled, since Bonnie was closing airports.

Last night, when our family decided on our Texas jaunt, I decided that this year it would be without me because I anticipate the period they are going to be active ( AUG 20-28) I told them you go down there and have a nice time, but made them get cancellation insurance. Its not that I think Texas has to get hit during that time, but I think there will be plenty to talk about and being away from the front lines is torture for me when storms are going on. I was down there in 1995 when Felix was being touted as going into Va beach, and I was miserable. I remember calling Bob Larsen on Friday night and saying that once it stalled, it was over, it would never go in in spite of the models trying to bring it in. But what could I do from there? Even with Bonnie, getting on national TV to DEHYPE the gulf threat meant I did my job. So I will be here, they will be there.. Garrett golfing with his cousins ( one of his Uncles is hooked in with Augusta Pines) my wife sees her sisters, Jessie hangs with her cousins and I put my money where my mouth is as far as my job.

I want to dispell the rumor I simply want to avoid my sister in laws. If I am down there, I am always visiting clients anyway, but there is no truth to the avoid my sister in laws at all costs.

Ahem

Its all about the weather.

Notes and asides.

My mixmaster theory wont get tested in the gulf as mother nature and bathtub technology is getting rid of the oil. Thats right, its diluting and disappearing and the reason is because the dispersant is glorified soap, causes the oil, which in spite of the lousy reputation it has, is a naturally occuring substance, to emulsify and by doing so allows natural processes to attack. In addition the warmth of the gulf is helping it. When you do your laundry, the hotter the water, the less soap you have to do. Well near 90 degree water works alot better on Light Sweet oil, which is what much of this was, than 40 degrees on heavy crude. This is not downplaying what happened, its just that anyone trying to use this for their own agenda ( I detected both sides using it.. one side to blame the administration, the administration to try to trump up the environmental agenda, so there, fair and balanced..both sides get mad at me) is seeing nature an man thwart them. One has to wonder, if those big skimmers had been allowed to get there faster, if this really would have been in better shape quicker.

No its not over, and this is not saying this is bad. It is injecting a bit of reality into it. The hype on this was amazing. The gulf would warm so hurricanes would be stronger. The loop current would catch it and close east coast beaches. Bonnie was going in there and would cause big problems. I even had people email me and getting nasty with me because I would not agree with them that black rain would be killing livestock into the Ohio valley this year. Simply amazing.

Where is the oil? Its getting diluted. I suppose we will never get a chance to test my "mixmaster theory" but I feel given it didnt even take that, it would have worked.

In the end, no matter how we try to mess up nature, or try to change her, she wins. The next vivid example of that will be the drop in temps coming by early next year and then the longer drop over the coming decades.


As for those that think that the oil is on the bottom, I guess you are of the "Day after tomorrow" theory that natural laws can be changed ( remember the bringing down of cold air from the stratosphere.. even though it warms up 5 degrees per thousand feet, they somehow decided you can do that and of course the nuts out there bought it. The cooling you get with a thunderstorm is from air rushing down from near the freezing levels which are up at 13,000 feet. The wet adiabat ( the air is saturated with the rain shaft) has it at 3f per thousand feet. Air starting at freezing rushing down quickly, saturated warming that much would make it in the low 70s when it got to earth..which is just about right when you think about what goes on with thunderstorms.. You cant get air at -40 from 50k and take it down to earth and still have it at -40 when it gets to the surface).

And oil floats on water, unless it is no longer oil, but is becoming a broken down version that is being diluted and destroyed by nature and yes, a little help from its friend, man.

Nature will always win, and those of us that know that simply grin.

ciao for now ****
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Good morning all. I see the wave off Africa is looking alright, and so is ex-Colin and 92L.
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Quoting intampa:
good morning.. been following this blog for years. my first post. i have seen the occasional post indicating some people think the season is a bust already based on the storms we have seen so far. unfortunatly many people here in tampa bay feel the same way. all my friends and co-workers are saying the same thing. everyone feels its a hype for insurance companies etc. lets hope there right because many of them, when they here mention of a storm, roll there eyes and comment that its just weather hype. hopefully nothing sneaks up on us this year because im afraid many people in may area may be caught off guard.


Ahhh, Tampa. The Valhalla of potential insurance claims.
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Quoting StormW:


Drak posted a microwave imagery of ex-Colin a little bit ago...it appeared as if it were getting some semblance of one.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_04L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html

don't see much here
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Quoting PRweathercenter:

Puerto Rico hasn't had a hurricane since 1998 either...
U see? And these are the 1s that blow up and hit FL after having wiped out u guys....

I better go Carpe Diem while the Carpeing's good.... plus I might move from wheezy to queasy, in which case aqua might have to find yet ANOTHER barf bag.... lol

Later, all.
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3133. Squid28
I have a question about the recon flights...

How do you differentiate between a G-IV flight and a regular HH mission? Aren't they all deignated as a TealXX ?
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So far this year, nothing but short lived storms. Alex was the longest but even that wasn't that long of a track at all
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3129. andy1
Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Nassau is in the same boat. We haven't had a direct hit since that storm in 1966, and that was only cat 1 at the time... last Major was Donna, IIRC... that's why when I saw the way the year was shaping up, both in terms of potential and synoptic pattern, I started to get a bit wheezy....

Puerto Rico hasn't had a hurricane since 1998 either...
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
3127. Patrap
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DUE
TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125552

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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