Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting will45:
Levi what would NHC have to see to have it regenerated? A closed circulation?


They would need to see more organization.
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2524. will45
Levi what would NHC have to see to have it regenerated? A closed circulation?
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
maybe so foggymyst but I belive that it will feel some of the pull northward and have more of a east track maybe eventually the models would do the same
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2522. Levi32
Quoting JLPR2:


It seems to have slowed down some right?


Perhaps a little bit. It will be slowing down during the next few days.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
2520. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
Convection is actually blowing right over the surface center of Colin.


It seems to have slowed down some right?
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2519. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
WHXX01 KWBC 040051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 0000 100804 1200 100805 0000 100805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 69.1W 14.4N 72.5W 15.5N 75.8W 16.2N 78.8W
BAMD 13.5N 69.1W 14.1N 71.9W 14.7N 74.6W 15.4N 77.2W
BAMM 13.5N 69.1W 14.2N 72.0W 15.1N 74.8W 16.0N 77.5W
LBAR 13.5N 69.1W 14.2N 72.2W 15.3N 75.3W 16.3N 78.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 0000 100807 0000 100808 0000 100809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 81.7W 18.3N 86.8W 19.4N 91.6W 20.7N 96.4W
BAMD 16.2N 79.5W 17.6N 83.6W 18.0N 87.5W 18.2N 91.5W
BAMM 17.0N 80.0W 18.9N 84.2W 20.2N 88.2W 21.5N 92.4W
LBAR 17.7N 81.1W 20.6N 85.6W 23.3N 88.5W 24.9N 90.4W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 69KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 50KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 69.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 65.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 62.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
2518. Levi32
Convection is actually blowing right over the surface center of Colin.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
2517. JLPR2
Colin didn't like how everyone said he was RIP
XD LOL!
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Orca, 92L is too far south to get caught in a west to east front?
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2515. JLPR2
Quoting thelmores:
Whats left of Colin...... ESE of the blowup of the convection. Still a nice circulation...... but a skeleton of its former self......



whats ESE of Colin is its mid level circulation
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2514. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1900hurricane:

What is that? I've never seen that graphic before.


It's new from Bob Hart at FSU, if you click on the graphic it will take you there. It's based on % chance from climatology that if a tropical cyclone was where the current marked storms are.. of it affecting land in the surrounding areas. Dr Masters posted a link the other day. Thought it would be something to watch.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I don't guess Taz, I leave that part up to everyone else. I post what is based on available facts and models :)

No crow that way :)



ok
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Quoting Tazmanian:



that can later turn in too a cat 4 or 5


I don't guess Taz, I leave that part up to everyone else. I post what is based on available facts and models :)

No crow that way :)
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Whats left of Colin...... ESE of the blowup of the convection. Still a nice circulation...... but a skeleton of its former self......

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Quoting spathy:

This Floridian doesnt ever say its coming here.
I get prepared...
Click my heels and repeat...
Its not coming to my home
Its not coming to my home
While chronically peaking past my hand covered eyes to see where "it" could go.


I admit - I'm NOT prepared this year.. Being a member here since 2006 I usually take all the warning to heart. I'm the one the family laughs at with all my precautions. Life just got in the way this year. I am aware and THINK I can catch up when there is really something to worry about. Strange year that's all I guess.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
All updated now... the SHIP has 92L becoming a CAT 1 for Cancun.




AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI



that can later turn in too a cat 4 or 5
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2506. Skyepony (Mod)
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2505. xcool
LONG TERM...
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS
CENTERED WELL TO THE W AND NW WITH AS MID UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
SAG CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL AND E GULF COAST. BOTH DEVELOPMENTS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS AND PRECIP COVERAGE TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.
LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BRING TROP WAVE AND MOISTURE ACROSS
YUCATAN SUN MOVING ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. AT PRESENT TIME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEMS APPEARS SUPPRESSED FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH FOR SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK UPPER HIGH BECOMES SITUATED WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER AR/MO
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS EXPECTED


interesting.
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All updated now... the SHIP has 92L becoming a CAT 1 for Cancun.




AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
Houston AFD

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HOWEVER THE
MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND NHC OUTLOOK
ONLY HAS 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EXTREMELY LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH
GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.






hmmm
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2502. xcool
Dallas AFD

APPEARS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF CWA THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL IN EASTERN ZONES AS RIDGE
WEAKENS. INTERMEDIATE 06Z GFS FEATURED A PROMINENT EASTERLY WAVE
INVADING TEXAS NEXT WEEK. THIS IS NOT PRESENT IN OTHER EXTENDED
MODELS...AND GFS PERTURBATIONS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AT THAT
TIME. THE HEAT WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2501. xcool
Houston AFD

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HOWEVER THE
MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY SHOWING INTENSIFICATION AND NHC OUTLOOK
ONLY HAS 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EXTREMELY LONG RANGE OUTLOOK LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH
GFS BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.


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Colin got a nice burst of convention. Lets see how big it pops.
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Quoting atmosweather:
If 92L develops significantly in the Caribbean then it could become a big problem for the CONUS...

NWS Houston/Galveston this PM:

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WILL
MOVE WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS TOMORROW. SOME SHRA/TSRA OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED SMALL SHRA NEAR KLBX THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOC WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH.
TOMORROW`S RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN BE MOSTLY OFFSHORE AT BEST
AND MAY EVEN BE LESS LIKELY THAN TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER HIGH MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THURSDAY THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO WEST TX AND BY FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN
AND WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA AREAWIDE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.




that not good oh you got mak plz read it
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2498. will45
Quoting Orcasystems:


It can be used more then once :)


yes i agree on that part
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
If 92L develops significantly in the Caribbean then it could become a big problem for the CONUS...

NWS Houston/Galveston this PM:

UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WILL
MOVE WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS TOMORROW. SOME SHRA/TSRA OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED SMALL SHRA NEAR KLBX THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOC WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH.
TOMORROW`S RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN BE MOSTLY OFFSHORE AT BEST
AND MAY EVEN BE LESS LIKELY THAN TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER HIGH MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THURSDAY THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO WEST TX AND BY FRIDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN
AND WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA AREAWIDE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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Thanks Orca.. NYC is better than MIA.. sorry NY!
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Quoting will45:


yea its easier but it dont work when someone quotes them


It can be used more then once :)
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Quoting foggymyst:
Thanks Orca, and ex-colin? regenerate after the front off the east US, therefore missing it?


Yup :)

Turns inbound.


Sort of brings NYC back into the picture... not sure why I picked it... just a hunch... and to give something for Levi to give me a lesson on :)
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"When the cloud begins to move apace, you may expect the Wind presently. It comes on fierce, and blows violently at N.E. 12 hours more or less … When the wind begins to abate it dyes (sic) away suddenly, and falling flat calm, it continues for an hour, more or less: then the wind comes about to the S.W. and it blows and rains as fierce from thence, as it did before at N.E. and as long.
"
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2491. aquak9
*Crouches over toilet bowl*

passes barf bag to atmos. Fifth one today.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
2490. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Why won't the NHC update I stayed up to 11 for it and they haven't updated it are they still considering the state of Colin?


REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 53.8W. 12FT SEAS: 030NM NE, 000NM
SE, 000NM SW, 030NM NW.
AT 080318 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 441 NM E OF BARBADOS.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL WARNING ISSUED BY NAVMARFCSTCEN.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Skyepony:

What is that? I've never seen that graphic before.
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2488. will45
Quoting Orcasystems:


I find the Ignore function easier :)


yea its easier but it dont work when someone quotes them
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting atmosweather:


That map always makes me feel better...

*Crouches over toilet bowl*



you have mail
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Quoting spathy:


! or -
Fast and easy


I find the Ignore function easier :)
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2484. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
La Nina continues to build, and our anomalies continue to hold strong:



That map always makes me feel better...

*Crouches over toilet bowl*
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Thanks Orca, and ex-colin? regenerate after the front off the east US, therefore missing it?
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2481. xcool
i'm here busy day.
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2480. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting aquak9:


Keeper, you catch that inverted V sliding by?
yeah i seen it slide by to the sw
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
I am starting to feel that 92L will be more of a impact to us here in Cayman than RL(REMNANT LOW) Colin

by the way I cam up with some new lettering for tropical system to add to the current ones and here are they

WV, DB, LO, TD, TS, HC1, HC2, HC3, HC4, HC5, STD, STS, RL, EXS,

Tropical Wave, Tropical Disturbance, Low Pressure System/Disturbance, Tropical Depperesion, Tropical Storm, Cane Cat 1, Cane Cat 2, Cane Cat 3, Cane Cat 4, Cane Cat 5, Sub-Tropical Depperesion, Sub-Tropical Storm, Remnant Low, Extra-Tropical Storm

anyway yeah
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La Nina continues to build, and our anomalies continue to hold strong:

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2476. leo305
didn't colin kill itself, its speed really just opened the circulation up, I mean WNW AT 35MPH?
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Quoting JLPR2:


Colin had a last advisory wrote on it at 5pm, its officially dead unless it regenerates.

Oh I wish I knew that it's looking a little better now
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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