Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting xcool:
KerryInNOLA how.


Because we aren't at the "H" storm. 2005 has spoiled some people, apparently.

Unless he means "bust" relative to the preseason forecasts, in which case, he might well be onto something.
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2574. xcool
KerryInNOLA how.
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Quoting txsweetpea:


thanks!


I updated that comment. Apparently, the NHC thinks a tropical wave is embedded within the ITCZ in that area, so it bears watching. It'll be a few days before it detaches from the ITCZ though, if it does at all. And I'd bet that most of the convection in the area is associated with the ITCZ, not the wave. This indicates that the wave isn't self-sustaining as of yet.
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Quoting will45:
Levi what would NHC have to see to have it regenerated? A closed circulation?


I know you directed the question to Levi, but I hope you don't mind me answering it-if I may?

For the NHC to reclassify tropical disturbance "Colin"-it just simply needs to once again exhibit a closed COC and maintain persistent convection near the COC for a period of at least 6 hours (the general rule of thumb for the NHC). If this occurs, it is likely that "Colin" would be redesignated as a TC.

On a similar note, I was asked last night whether or not I thought TD #4 would maintain TC status throughout the succeeding 5 day forecast period. At the time, I suggested that there was no greater than a 25% probability that Colin would actually degenerate during the aforementioned time period. I was wrong by 75% because there is no way I envisioned a realistic scenario whereby the low level circulation center would be moving at such an astounding rate of speed-33 mph. As a result of its incredible translational speed, the low level center just simply out ran its upper level support-making it impossible for it to maintain a closed COC.

Now, it just needs to slow down its translational speed and allow itself to once again become more vertically stacked. Such a slow down in forward movement combined with a persistent blow up of convection near the COC could very well close off the low level center. If so, it is possible that regeneration could occur sooner than the NHC is currently forecasting. Aside from that, Colin still has to worry about increasing SW shear and the possible intrusion of dry air as it moves into an increasingly hostile upper level environment. The sooner it can get its act together-the better chance it has to survive and regenerate by the end of the 5 day forecast period.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
This season continues to be a bust. I feel confident to take a fishing trip and camp out on a recently reopened barrier island. WITH NO CONTACT OF ANY TYPE TO CIVILIZATION.


sigh

Lack of patience, etc.

I'll keep reiterating this as many times as I have to, until people finally get it.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


ITCZ convection.


thanks!
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2569. crunja

Jeff Masters writes:

'Commentary

None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) '



~~ Well, while we have had some notable record highs this summer, the winter we just had had its record snows and lows. If the intense cold spells can be a result of global warming, can't the converse hold?: The intense heat is indicative of the global cooling to come? How so?


I got these from the iceagenow.com site:




'Perhaps the most important player is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is a hot and cold ocean temperature cycle in the Pacific of about 30 years. The world's temperature trend very closely matches this cycle which has the potential to override solar activity of the day. '

from:
http://www.iceagenow.com/Massive_Winter_for_Northern_Hemisphere.htm


`````````````

And an unusually cooler summer for San Diego:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg1f_TRQUwk



````````````


'Never has ice melted so slowly in mid-summer as it has this year - less than half the rate in 2007 - far below anything on record. Would NOAA already call it a record low melt for the month? '

from:

http://www.iceagenow.com/Slowest_July_Arctic_Melt_Ever.htm


````````````

from:
http://www.iceagenow.com/South_America-Longest_Cold_Streak_in_17_years.htm


Southern Hemisphere Winter Intense


Peru Declares Cold Wave Emergency in 16 Regions
25 Jul 10 - More than 400 dead. The decree covers all districts
more than 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) above sea level, as well as
three regions in the Peruvian jungle that have registered "strangely
low temperatures" in the last few weeks.
See Peru Declares Cold Wave Emergency in 16 Regions


#

Cold now extends to Amazon jungle
Email from a reader in Chile
21 Jul 10 - Here in Chile, we don't know to cope with under
zero (°C) temperature..... but the problem is bigger in tropical
Bolivian zone.....the things are worse... Each year is worse.
See Cold now extends to Amazon jungle


#

South America - Longest Cold Streak in 17 years
21 Jul 10 - More than 200 deaths. Snow downs power
lines. Record low temperatures.
See South America - Longest Cold Streak in 17 years


#

Death toll reaches 175 in South America - 21 July 10 - The cold was worst in southern Peru, where temperatures in higher altitudes of the Andes dropped to minus 23 degrees Celsius (minus 9F).
http://en.trend.az/regions/world/ocountries/1723309.html
Thanks to Kenneth Lund for this link


#

Brutal and historic cold in South America - Thousands of animals perish
20 Jul 10 - A brutal and historic cold snap has so far caused 80 deaths in South America, says this article on icecap.us.

"Temperatures have been much below normal for over a week in vast areas of the continent. In Chile, the Ayesen region was affected early last week by the worst snowstorm in 30 years. The snow accumulation reached 5 feet in Balmaceda and the Army was called to rescue people trapped by the snow."

"It snowed in nearly all provinces of Argentina, an extremely rare event ... even in the western part of the province of Buenos Aires and Southern Santa Fe." Some areas in Northern Argentina saw snow for the first time in living memory, others saw snow for the first time since 1921.

Thousands of cattle also froze to death on their pastures in Paraguay and Brazil. There are no stables for the animals as temperatures usually do not drop that low.

See entire article and many photos:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HISTORICALCOLDSNAPFREEZESSOUTHAMERICA.pdf
Thanks to Joe d'Aleo for this link

See also: http://en.trend.az/regions/world/ocountries/1723309.html
Thanks to Bill Pojedinec and Jim Stoffaire for this link


#

Killer Cold In Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia -18 Jul 10
Extreme cold weather has brought ice and snow to much of Argentina, killing at least nine. Deaths have also been reported in Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia.

Argentina has stepped up electricity imports and restricted the use of natural gas by industry to accommodate domestic heating needs.

"Bolivia's education ministry ordered schools to close until 21 July because of the cold.

"Low temperatures have also affected Chile, southern Brazil, and eastern Peru.

"The unusually cold winter weather in South America follows one of the coldest winters for years in many parts of the northern hemisphere."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10679088
Thanks to John Brown in Ardrossan, Scotland,
and Joe Kraig in Kentucky for this link


#

Record Cold in Argentina - Terrible energy crisis - 16 Jul 10 - "The data for South America is false. In Argentina we are having record cold temperatures. This July is a repetition of the 2007 July when it snowed in Buenos Aires for the first time since 1918. It snowed again yesterday. It even snowed in the province of Santiago del Estero where it has never snowed!

"Today was the coldest day in 10 years in the entire country, in all places. It keeps snowing in Tucumán, Salta and Jujuy, northern provinces close to the border with Bolivia, north of the Tropic of Capricorn. And not only in the mountains but at low altitudes (300-500 m asl).

"A temperature graph for my nearest city Alta Gracia updated to July 15th: AltaGracia-15-JUL-2010

See more at Eduardo Ferreyra says: July 16, 2010 at 9:21 pm
Thanks to Walter Schneider for these links
"Any newspaper in Argentina is speaking about this unusual cold
weather and the terrible energy crisis it has imposed on the country,"
says Walter.




~~~ Much more at the iceagenow.com site.

Basically, they say that the warming oceans via undersea volcanoes will send more precip to the more polar latitudes where much snow will start to accumulate into huge glaciers -- thus a new ice age.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
What is the to the east of collin?


ITCZ convection.

Actually, according to the NHC, it is a tropical wave embedded within the ITCZ. I'd be willing to bet though, that the vast majority of the convection isn't directly associated with the wave itself; rather, the ITCZ.
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What is the to the east of collin?
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2564. xcool
jurakantaino 4 ?
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Is ex-Colin supposed to curve still even though it is just bearly hanging to life? If it does curve is the curve supposed to be as sharp as before? GOM still out of question? Thanks
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Quoting xcool:



LOOK at Colin


850mb Vorticity

5,000 feet
I'M BACK !!!
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Shear for 98/92L:



And GOMEX forecast from LCH NWS:

A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. AN ASSOCIATED GULF EASTERLY WAVE (OR INVERTED TROUGH) IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THIS DOME...ITS AXIS SPOKING FROM CAMERON TO JUST NORTH TAMPICO. THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD...MOVING
ONSHORE THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WASHING OUT ACROSS INLAND TEXAS BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.

FURTHER-UP...A NORTHEASTERLY JET STREAK MARKS THE OUTER SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AFORMENTIONED DOME...CORING ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH TAMPA TO MARINE POINT 24N 92W...BEFORE MERGING WITH A GULF EASTERLY JET WHICH CORES TO JUST SOUTH BROWNSVILLE. THIS SUBTROPICAL CONFIGURATION WILL REMAIN INTACT WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURE AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL KEEP EXCESSIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CONSEQUENTLY...ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. A GULF EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND
COASTAL SEGMENT THIS EVENING. THE NORTHEASTERLY JET STREAK (SEE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION ABOVE) WILL CONTINUE TO STEER EASTERLY IMPULSES OVER THE GULF EASTERLY WAVE. THE SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERLY IMPULSES WILL PHASE IN WITH THE MESO-SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF EASTERLY WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
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2560. xcool
i need model support for 92L
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2559. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:



maybe 93L ; who knows


yep, TW in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands, got to watch the TWs
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2558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53532
Are all of the models for collin showing it will go NE? Or is there an expected change?
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2556. xcool



decreasingshear -Colin
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2555. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



latest 9 minutes old
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53532
2554. SLU
Wow! Look at the fireworks going off with ex-Colin.

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2553. xcool



maybe 93L ; who knows
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Looks like we have some acttion going on.
Lots of interesting things to look at!

92L is kinda unnerving. Not surprised that was designated tonight.

Levi, did you put out a "TT" today... went right from work to a rehearsal and didn't catch it... if it's still applicable, that is.
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2550. xcool



LOOK at Colin


850mb Vorticity

5,000 feet
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2547.

On the NHC's ATCF file they have corrected it. 98L has been deactivated and replaced with 92L. What the NWS guidance says isn't always up to date.
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2548. xcool
REALLY 92L NOT 98L ?
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2547. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting extreme236:


Well they already fixed it. People are posting old info.
no they have not

National Weather Service

Computer Hurricane Guidance
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05
[Printable]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 040051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100804 0000 UTC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53532
2546. will45
Quoting Levi32:


That and organized convection.


ok thanks
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
2545. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


That and organized convection.


persistent convection

I wonder how much will ex-Colin light up tonight
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2544. xcool
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2543. Levi32
Quoting will45:
Levi what would NHC have to see to have it regenerated? A closed circulation?


That and organized convection.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26594
Quoting extreme236:


Well they already fixed it. People are posting old info.



oh
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2541. xcool
:0
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2540. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/92/L
MARK
13.63N/69.36W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53532
2539. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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2538. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
04L/REM LOW
MARK
16.35N/56.73W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53532
Quoting Tazmanian:



tell the nhc that


Well they already fixed it. People are posting old info.
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2535. xcool
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2534. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOMENG
11:00 AM PhST August 4 2010
=============================================

At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Domeng located at 16.2°N 127.5°E or 430 kms northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warning #1
==================

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Cagayan
2.Isabela
3.Aurora

Additional Information
========================
A Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 700 kms East Northeast of Basco, Batanes 22.0°N, 129.0°E.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 including Southern Luzon, Visayas and Northern Mindanao are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 5 PM today.
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2533. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53532
Quoting extreme236:
The 98L stuff is kind of annoying...we have been saying numerous times for hours that it is actually 92L.



tell the nhc that
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2531. will45
Quoting extreme236:


They would need to see more organization.


I think the final discussion said about 5 days from now right?
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
The 98L stuff is kind of annoying...we have been saying numerous times for hours that it is actually 92L.
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wow, thanks wunder
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:


its DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100804




ok we can call it 92L/98L then
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lol some one needs too send them a meno


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 040051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 0000 100804 1200 100805 0000 100805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 69.1W 14.4N 72.5W 15.5N 75.8W 16.2N 78.8W
BAMD 13.5N 69.1W 14.1N 71.9W 14.7N 74.6W 15.4N 77.2W
BAMM 13.5N 69.1W 14.2N 72.0W 15.1N 74.8W 16.0N 77.5W
LBAR 13.5N 69.1W 14.2N 72.2W 15.3N 75.3W 16.3N 78.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 0000 100807 0000 100808 0000 100809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 81.7W 18.3N 86.8W 19.4N 91.6W 20.7N 96.4W
BAMD 16.2N 79.5W 17.6N 83.6W 18.0N 87.5W 18.2N 91.5W
BAMM 17.0N 80.0W 18.9N 84.2W 20.2N 88.2W 21.5N 92.4W
LBAR 17.7N 81.1W 20.6N 85.6W 23.3N 88.5W 24.9N 90.4W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 69KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 50KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 69.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 65.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 62.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Quoting will45:
Levi what would NHC have to see to have it regenerated? A closed circulation?


They would need to see more organization.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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