Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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2625. xcool
HURRICANE SEASON not really slow jmo
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Still waiting on a retort from Kerry.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
Quoting Orcasystems:


I wouldn't call IKE any kind of caster. He has sound opinions and ideas... other then his IKE jr, he has done very well.


...Should I ask? :/
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2621. 7544
looks like colin making a good bid tonight and might be gtrying to regain ts status dmax will be good to watch this happen if it does
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Quoting SouthFMY:
What causes an upper level low to diminish and die out?


Not completely sure, but seeing as though those systems have cold cores aloft, I would imagine that if upper ridging took over in the area, the low would gradually weaken as it loses its upper support (since ridges are warm).
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh. Then maybe I just read him wrong.

Either way, what I said would still stand in the event that he did.


I wouldn't call IKE any kind of caster. He has sound opinions and ideas... other then his IKE jr, he has done very well.
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2618. Niedjav
this is Colin... wow
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I DONT UNDERSTAND, PR IS SUPPOUSLY IN THE MIDDLE OF HURRICANE'S PATH AND WE DONT SEE A HURRICANE SINCE GEORGES BACK IN 1998, WHY?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ike doesn't think this season will be slow. He's sticking with 13.


Oh. Then maybe I just read him wrong.

Either way, what I said would still stand in the event that he did.
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What causes an upper level low to diminish and die out?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You know what? I think I'm just going to start trolling people with this. At least, those who have not yet earned my respect (IKE, if you're reading this, you have long since earned my respect good buddy -- if you think the season is going to be slow, so be it, I can respect your opinion).

Sounds fun.


Ike doesn't think this season will be slow. He's sticking with 13.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
Quoting KoritheMan:


Lack of patience, etc.


You know what? I think I'm just going to start trolling people with this. At least, those who have not yet earned my respect (IKE, if you're reading this, you have long since earned my respect good buddy -- if you think the season is going to be slow, so be it, I can respect your opinion).

Sounds fun.
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Quoting caneswatch:
Please ignore KerryinNOLA like I have. He thinks every season will be a bust.


Must be written in stone. I'm surprised that the admins haven't picked him up in the last few years.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
Quoting txsweetpea:
Is there supposed to be any action in the gulf in the near future?


Invest 92L in the eastern Caribbean could eventually enter the western Gulf, and potentially impact Mexico or Texas.
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Please ignore KerryinNOLA like I have. He thinks every season will be a bust.
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Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
I THINK THIS HURRICANE SEASON WILL BE VERY QUIET!!!


Lack of patience, etc.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
Is there supposed to be any action in the gulf in the near future?


Probably not.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
Updated Models and tracks..I'm out for the night. you guys have fun.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Is there supposed to be any action in the gulf in the near future?
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Quoting alfabob:


My exact prediction from yesterday; there are too many factors to consider besides the convection dying off for a short period of time. With the amount of energy Colin was showing earlier, something will most likely develop. If not, it will intensify the surrounding areas for another storm to feed off of. track.


Ya there was the deep intrusion of dry air from the SAL and Colin cut that in half kinda paving the way for other waves. If it can stay the way it is or strengthen and find a way into the into a better enviroment where its multiple days off landfall then its essentially dead and since at this time that seems very very unlikely, I'd be suprised to see this thing get to hurricane status. But with the MJO returning, the itcz seeming very high (maybe just me), sst's hot, and some strong looking waves coming off of africa, Colin may be the calm before the storm.
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2601. xcool
lol
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
This season continues to be a bust. I feel confident to take a fishing trip and camp out on a recently reopened barrier island. WITH NO CONTACT OF ANY TYPE TO CIVILIZATION.


send us a note in a bottle! LOL

Nice burst by Colin!
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Just ignore 2598. Its just a troll getting a rise out of us.

EDIT: not you Orca LOL. Wrong post.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
Quoting alfabob:


Agreed, plus I feel as if the general public deserves a smack in the face from reality. But that's a topic for another day.


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Quoting FatPenguin:


So, in 10 more years when it's warmer than it is now, will you find some more articles like that? I mean, even though we've been arguing about this for 20 years, I think we need to argue for at least another 10 years.

The hot air may help contribute to global warming.

And in reference to the post you quoted... undersea volcanoes warming the oceans? really? Like... seriously?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5869
I THINK THIS HURRICANE SEASON WILL BE VERY QUIET!!!
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2595. xcool
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@KerryInNOLA Lets look at this from a non-2005 perspective because you seem obsessed that every season needs to be like that to be 'active'. 2007, 3-0-0 at this point, Dean formed on the 13th. Season ended up with 15-6-2, with 2 Category 5s, Humberto which went from invest to Hurricane in 20 hours, Lorenzo which went from TD to Hurricane in 18 hours (it however, was a TD for a few days before hand), and Noel devastated Haiti. Have some patience kid, realize your not the only person in the world that matters as we've already had Hurricane Alex, a 947 mb Category 2 that killed 30+ people at 1.21 billion dollars in damages. You want to argue? Go ahead. Make my day.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Don't get me wrong. I am ecstatic that it has been quiet. I've lived through enough of them since Betsy, and wouldn't care if there were never one again, despite how FASCINATING they are. I am simply stating that I love to see one named only to promptly fizz. In fact, I may take a blow up raft trip about 80 miles into the Gulf.


Wonderful. I think most of us are.

That's wholly irrelevant to what you said before, though. Namely, that the season "continues to be a bust".

I don't mean to pounce on you Kerry, but I'm absolutely detested at the sheer amount of impatience displayed so rampantly on this blog with regards to this season.

Things will ramp up, it's only a matter of time. Most parameters have been pointing toward mid-August as the real beginning of the season. Colin was only a tease, setting the stage for others.
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2592. 7544
colin says im back and ready for the dmax
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2590. xcool


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2588. xcool
i'm keep big eye on Colintrack.
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2587. Relix
Quoting JLPR2:


yep, TW in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands, got to watch the TWs


Levi said that's going the Colin recurve track.
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2585. xcool
mm
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2584. will45
Quoting ncforecaster:


You are most welcome.:)


what part of NC are you in?
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting will45:
2572. ncforecaster 12:34 AM EDT on August 04, 2010

ty


You are most welcome.:)
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Quoting alfabob:


I thought he was being sarcastic ha. Although I agree that you should continue with the previous predictions, as the general public seems kind of lost right now. Keep throwing it out there until it finally sinks in.


Eh, it's possible I suppose. It's very difficult to distinguish between sarcasm and seriousness via text, though, because there's no easy way to read any emotional tone, if there is one. It's left up to one's arbitrary judgment.

Kerry, if he's correct, and you were indeed being sarcastic, I owe you an apology. Forgive me.

But I've made up my mind. Every time someone ignorantly claims that the season is a bust, unless they are friends I greatly respect, I will simply reiterate what I've been saying for weeks: "lack of patience, etc."
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Quoting crunja:

Jeff Masters writes:

'Commentary

None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) '



~~ Well, while we have had some notable record highs this summer, the winter we just had had its record snows and lows. If the intense cold spells can be a result of global warming, can't the converse hold?: The intense heat is indicative of the global cooling to come? How so?


I got these from the iceagenow.com site:




'Perhaps the most important player is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is a hot and cold ocean temperature cycle in the Pacific of about 30 years. The world's temperature trend very closely matches this cycle which has the potential to override solar activity of the day. '

from:
http://www.iceagenow.com/Massive_Winter_for_Northern_Hemisphere.htm


`````````````

And an unusually cooler summer for San Diego:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg1f_TRQUwk



````````````


'Never has ice melted so slowly in mid-summer as it has this year - less than half the rate in 2007 - far below anything on record. Would NOAA already call it a record low melt for the month? '

from:

http://www.iceagenow.com/Slowest_July_Arctic_Melt_Ever.htm


````````````

from:
http://www.iceagenow.com/South_America-Longest_Cold_Streak_in_17_years.htm


Southern Hemisphere Winter Intense


Peru Declares Cold Wave Emergency in 16 Regions
25 Jul 10 - More than 400 dead. The decree covers all districts
more than 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) above sea level, as well as
three regions in the Peruvian jungle that have registered "strangely
low temperatures" in the last few weeks.
See Peru Declares Cold Wave Emergency in 16 Regions


#

Cold now extends to Amazon jungle
Email from a reader in Chile
21 Jul 10 - Here in Chile, we don't know to cope with under
zero (°C) temperature..... but the problem is bigger in tropical
Bolivian zone.....the things are worse... Each year is worse.
See Cold now extends to Amazon jungle


#

South America - Longest Cold Streak in 17 years
21 Jul 10 - More than 200 deaths. Snow downs power
lines. Record low temperatures.
See South America - Longest Cold Streak in 17 years


#

Death toll reaches 175 in South America - 21 July 10 - The cold was worst in southern Peru, where temperatures in higher altitudes of the Andes dropped to minus 23 degrees Celsius (minus 9F).
http://en.trend.az/regions/world/ocountries/1723309.html
Thanks to Kenneth Lund for this link


#

Brutal and historic cold in South America - Thousands of animals perish
20 Jul 10 - A brutal and historic cold snap has so far caused 80 deaths in South America, says this article on icecap.us.

"Temperatures have been much below normal for over a week in vast areas of the continent. In Chile, the Ayesen region was affected early last week by the worst snowstorm in 30 years. The snow accumulation reached 5 feet in Balmaceda and the Army was called to rescue people trapped by the snow."

"It snowed in nearly all provinces of Argentina, an extremely rare event ... even in the western part of the province of Buenos Aires and Southern Santa Fe." Some areas in Northern Argentina saw snow for the first time in living memory, others saw snow for the first time since 1921.

Thousands of cattle also froze to death on their pastures in Paraguay and Brazil. There are no stables for the animals as temperatures usually do not drop that low.

See entire article and many photos:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HISTORICALCOLDSNAPFREEZESSOUTHAMERICA.pdf
Thanks to Joe d'Aleo for this link

See also: http://en.trend.az/regions/world/ocountries/1723309.html
Thanks to Bill Pojedinec and Jim Stoffaire for this link


#

Killer Cold In Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia -18 Jul 10
Extreme cold weather has brought ice and snow to much of Argentina, killing at least nine. Deaths have also been reported in Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia.

Argentina has stepped up electricity imports and restricted the use of natural gas by industry to accommodate domestic heating needs.

"Bolivia's education ministry ordered schools to close until 21 July because of the cold.

"Low temperatures have also affected Chile, southern Brazil, and eastern Peru.

"The unusually cold winter weather in South America follows one of the coldest winters for years in many parts of the northern hemisphere."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10679088
Thanks to John Brown in Ardrossan, Scotland,
and Joe Kraig in Kentucky for this link


#

Record Cold in Argentina - Terrible energy crisis - 16 Jul 10 - "The data for South America is false. In Argentina we are having record cold temperatures. This July is a repetition of the 2007 July when it snowed in Buenos Aires for the first time since 1918. It snowed again yesterday. It even snowed in the province of Santiago del Estero where it has never snowed!

"Today was the coldest day in 10 years in the entire country, in all places. It keeps snowing in Tucumán, Salta and Jujuy, northern provinces close to the border with Bolivia, north of the Tropic of Capricorn. And not only in the mountains but at low altitudes (300-500 m asl).

"A temperature graph for my nearest city Alta Gracia updated to July 15th: AltaGracia-15-JUL-2010

See more at Eduardo Ferreyra says: July 16, 2010 at 9:21 pm
Thanks to Walter Schneider for these links
"Any newspaper in Argentina is speaking about this unusual cold
weather and the terrible energy crisis it has imposed on the country,"
says Walter.




~~~ Much more at the iceagenow.com site.

Basically, they say that the warming oceans via undersea volcanoes will send more precip to the more polar latitudes where much snow will start to accumulate into huge glaciers -- thus a new ice age.


So, in 10 more years when it's warmer than it is now, will you find some more articles like that? I mean, even though we've been arguing about this for 20 years, I think we need to argue for at least another 10 years.
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Quoting alfabob:
Well if the anti-cyclone supporting Colin started moving to the west, I would expect it to squeeze under the ULL above PR; thus sending it more towards the Gulf. Otherwise, if the anti-cyclone stayed stationary, I could see Colin shooting to the north; or being dampened by the ULL.


It seems that if it (Circulation- not sure if its mid level or low level) contiues on its current motion it would end up almost ontop of PR and near the center of the leewards
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2578. xcool
oh
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2577. will45
2572. ncforecaster 12:34 AM EDT on August 04, 2010

ty
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting KoritheMan:


I updated that comment. Apparently, the NHC thinks a tropical wave is embedded within the ITCZ in that area, so it bears watching. It'll be a few days before it detaches from the ITCZ though, if it does at all. And I'd bet that most of the convection in the area is associated with the ITCZ, not the wave. This indicates that the wave isn't self-sustaining as of yet.


Thank you very much ...very informative.
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Quoting xcool:
KerryInNOLA how.


Because we aren't at the "H" storm. 2005 has spoiled some people, apparently.

Unless he means "bust" relative to the preseason forecasts, in which case, he might well be onto something.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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