Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2725 - 2675

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65Blog Index

Quoting JLPR2:


It feels good when something you say actually happens LOL XD


It would be nice to have RECON in there tonight or visible imagery to see if we have a closed LLC...but it would be even nicer if ASCAT didn't CRASH EVERY SINGLE NIGHT!!!!!

Rant over. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2723. JLPR2
Quoting JLPR2:
So everyone had a chance to RIP Colin yet?
If so, then Colin will probably explode tonight XD it always happens, remember 92L? LOL!


It feels good when something you say actually happens LOL XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2722. xcool
lot convection -Colin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2721. xcool
god I hate Being Sick!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Well Colin is firing better convection than he ever did as a TS....we'll see how badly sheared he gets tomorrow and if any convection lasts through the night.

Goodnight all.


Night Levi!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The little TS that could.. and could.. and could.. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2718. Hhunter
yes collin will go more west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2717. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
Well Colin is firing better convection than he ever did as a TS....we'll see how badly sheared he gets tomorrow and if any convection lasts through the night.

Goodnight all.


Night!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2716. xcool
collen survivor not go stop him ha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2715. Levi32
Well Colin is firing better convection than he ever did as a TS....we'll see how badly sheared he gets tomorrow and if any convection lasts through the night.

Goodnight all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2714. Hhunter


collen is being a bad boy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2713. JLPR2
not bad

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2712. Levi32
Quoting atmosweather:


I have not seen that strong of a low on NOGAPS for a long time. Steering currents would have to completely break down for Colin to stick around that long but if the subtropical ridge to the E takes it time rebuilding and the TUTT low blocks any W or NW motion then that's a possibility. We'll see if there is any other support for this in the 12z suite.


Yeah, just something to ponder for now. We're losing models from the west camp on the 0z cycle, but it's still a fragile situation and as we saw on the GFS there are still some drastic changes from run to run in the upper pattern, so the models are far from locked on even yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2711. xcool
Colin get fat all that..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
In fact, check this out on the 0z NOGAPS when you shove the TUTT low far enough out of the way and let the system sit long enough without recurving. By 180 hours it's in a good enough environment to strengthen a lot...hard to get a sub-1000mb low on the NOGAPS. I've only seen one other this year on that model, could be a fluke, but you can see what can happen if it doesn't get picked up too fast.



I have not seen that strong of a low on NOGAPS for a long time. Steering currents would have to completely break down for Colin to stick around that long but if the subtropical ridge to the E takes it time rebuilding and the TUTT low blocks any W or NW motion then that's a possibility. We'll see if there is any other support for this in the 12z suite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2709. xcool
i'm not buy in NOGAPS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok any predictions of what we will have if and when Colin reforms and what are we looking at Florida?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2707. Levi32
In fact, check this out on the 0z NOGAPS when you shove the TUTT low far enough out of the way and let the system sit long enough without recurving. By 180 hours it's in a good enough environment to strengthen a lot...hard to get a sub-1000mb low on the NOGAPS. I've only seen one other this year on that model, could be a fluke, but you can see what can happen if it doesn't get picked up too fast.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Interesting because the CMC and NOGAPS show the upper low being able to roll right around the south side of that ridge instead of being blocked.

And....so did the 12z and 18z GFS.

The 0z shows bigger ridging with Colin east of the upper low. I've been thinking all night about 92L and Colin because it seems with that big upper low that one of them has to be sacrificed. I can't see enough room for both systems to develop in the face of that upper low. It will come down to which system has more energy available to push the upper low the other way. Right now Colin may have the edge.


If it comes down to that scenario then I agree with you, Colin's energy will be stronger and will reach the ULL before 92L's does.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2704. Levi32
Quoting atmosweather:


Levi check out the 00z GFS upper streamlines...the change I see is the cutoff ULL near the N Bahamas being blocked from moving W-ward as quickly as previously forecast due to the mid to upper ridge reistablishing itself over the SE U.S...my thinking is that this is going to prevent ex-Colin from intensifying significantly unless nothing picks it up for 2-3 days...what's your take?


Interesting because the CMC and NOGAPS show the upper low being able to roll right around the south side of that ridge instead of being blocked.

And....so did the 12z and 18z GFS.

The 0z shows bigger ridging with Colin east of the upper low. I've been thinking all night about 92L and Colin because it seems with that big upper low that one of them has to be sacrificed. I can't see enough room for both systems to develop in the face of that upper low. It will come down to which system has more energy available to push the upper low the other way by warming the air aloft. Right now Colin may have the edge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2703. wjdow
this blog is strong enough to handle a parallel discussion about gw. relax and enjoy, or ignore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Eh, it's possible I suppose. It's very difficult to distinguish between sarcasm and seriousness via text, though, because there's no easy way to read any emotional tone, if there is one. It's left up to one's arbitrary judgment.

Kerry, if he's correct, and you were indeed being sarcastic, I owe you an apology. Forgive me.

But I've made up my mind. Every time someone ignorantly claims that the season is a bust, unless they are friends I greatly respect, I will simply reiterate what I've been saying for weeks: "lack of patience, etc."


Hi Kori-you are absolutely right in asserting the fact that this particular hurricane season is not and has not been an inactive one-per the climatological standard.

For example, there have been only 13 hurricane seasons in the entire 159 year climatological record that had more "named" TC's than the 2010 season-up until this point in time. There were only 29 others that had the same number of "named" storms for both June and July combined.

That means the 2010 season has produced more "named" storms in the first two months of the season than 117 other years in the climatological record. In addition, there were 53 Atlantic basin hurricanes seasons that didn't even have one "named" storm develop during the first two months of the season.

With "Colin" forming so early in August-there has only been 5 other hurricane seasons in the past 159 years that has had more "named" storms by this point in the season.

In summary, we are already well above average for the first two months of the hurricane season heading into the peak period for TC formation-generally between August 15 and October 15. With optimal atmospheric conditions in place, we should see well above average MDR TC development. As a result, I am still standing by my pre-season forecast of 18-20 named storms developing before this particular hurricane season comes to a close.

I need to call it a night myself, but I hope you and everyone else here has a great rest of the night.:)

P.S. Here is the link to my series of blogs listing all of the TC development that has occurred during the months of January-August for the years of 1851-2009.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting traumaboyy:
If colin reforms does he get a different name??


No.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Niedjav:
bye bye Colin jijiji this low season...


You are the weakest link!!!...GOODBYE!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If colin reforms does he get a different name??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Niedjav:
bye bye Colin jijiji this low season...


Lack of patience, etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Please ignore caneswatch.
He can't tolerate any opinion that is optimistic and doesn't call for doom and gloom. He tells others how to think and who they should ignore.

Oh please, I tell others how to think? I can tolerate any opinion that's good. Do you see me yell at people who say "Oh, it's not gonna hit Mexico or Florida?" You've been coming here for years posting your downcast. And I would like proof on how I tell others to think.

poof kerryinnola is the real downcaster and is looney


You've seen what he does, right Rob?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2695. xcool
Niedjav .anyway
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Colin has a very good chance of restrengthening off the SE US coast if it survives to get there and doesn't recurve out too fast.


Levi check out the 00z GFS upper streamlines...the change I see is the cutoff ULL near the N Bahamas being blocked from moving W-ward as quickly as previously forecast due to the mid to upper ridge reistablishing itself over the SE U.S...my thinking is that this is going to prevent ex-Colin from intensifying significantly unless nothing picks it up for 2-3 days...what's your take?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2691. Niedjav
bye bye Colin jijiji this low season...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2690. xcool
btwntx08 .ha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2688. Levi32
Colin has a very good chance of restrengthening off the SE US coast if it survives to get there and doesn't recurve out too fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2687. xcool
ABNT20 KNHC 040533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
im surprised no one has posted the two
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2684. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Please ignore caneswatch.
He can't tolerate any opinion that is optimistic and doesn't call for doom and gloom. He tells others how to think and who they should ignore.

Oh please, I tell others how to think? I can tolerate any opinion that's good. Do you see me yell at people who say "Oh, it's not gonna hit Mexico or Florida?" You've been coming here for years posting your downcast. And I would like proof on how I tell others to think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For the longest time I did not come to this blog because he is always talking global warming.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is Collin going to go more west than originally predicted?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2679. Niedjav
thank
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2678. xcool
Global warming aka gw
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New TWO is out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


A big if, IMO.


Agreed...it's too small of a circulation IMO...also the conditions to the E of the Bahamas are still up for debate with the movement of the cutoff ULL being in doubt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Niedjav:
xcool 5:30 AM GMT on August 04,2010
omg gw noooo


xcool what is gw...


Global warming, obviously.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2725 - 2675

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
82 °F
Mostly Cloudy