91L near tropical depression status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on August 02, 2010

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A tropical wave near 12N 41W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is very close to being a tropical depression. NHC labeled this system Invest 91L yesterday, and is giving it a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 8am Wednesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of 91L to potentially allow further development. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. A Windsat pass from 5am EDT this morning did not show a closed circulation. Satellite imagery shows that the intensity and areal extent of 91L's heavy thunderstorms is very limited, but that a closed surface circulation may be close to forming. Low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are not apparent yet.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L.

Forecast for 91L
There is modest model support for 91L developing into a tropical depression. Three out of six of our reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis predict 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday or Wednesday. A west-northwest motion at 10 -15 mph is predicted, which should carry 91L a few hundred miles northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. However, it is possible that 91L would track over the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, as predicted by the Canadian model. Squalls from the outer rainbands of 91L may affect islands such as Antigua and Barbuda as early as Wednesday afternoon. As 91L makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Tuesday night, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Wednesday. There is also a great deal of dry air associated with the upper level low that may cause problems for 91L. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken and possibly destroy 91L late this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough may be strong enough to recurve 91L far enough to the northwest that the storm will threaten Bermuda. The HWRF and ECMWF models predict 91L could pass very near to Bermuda on Saturday. It is uncertain at this time if the trough will be strong enough to recurve 91L all the way out to sea early next week, as predicted by the GFS model, or leave 91L behind to potentially move westward again into the U.S. East Coast, as predicted by the Canadian model. The amount of wind shear that might be present early next week is also highly uncertain.

Cyprus records its hottest temperature in history yesterday
The island of Cyprus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 1, 2010 when the mercury hit 46.6°C (115.9°F) at Lefconica. The old record for Cyprus was 44.4°C (111.9°F) at Lefkosia in August 1956. An older record of 46.6°C from July 1888 was reported from Nicosia, but is of questionable reliability.

The year 2010 is now tied with 2007 as the year with the most national extreme heat records--fifteen. There has been one country that has recorded its coldest temperature on record in 2010; see my post last week for a list of the 2010 records. My source for extreme weather records is the excellent book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. His new updates (not yet published) remove a number of old disputed records. Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. For example, one of 2007's fifteen extreme hottest temperature records is for the U.S.--the 129°F recorded at Death Valley that year. Most weather record books list 1913 as the year the hottest temperature in the U.S. occurred, when Greenland Ranch in Death Valley hit 134°F. However, as explained in a recent Weatherwise article, that record is questionable, since it occurred during a sandstorm when hot sand may have wedged against the thermometer, artificially inflating the temperature. Mr. Burt's list of 225 countries with extreme heat records includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. Seventy four extreme hottest temperature records have been set in the past ten years (33% of all countries.) For comparison, 14 countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.

Next update
I'll have an update later today if 91L develops into a TD.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting reedzone:


lol you should see the BAMS, not a slight shift there ;).. I predicted that the models would shift left today and a few hours ago, you predicted the models would shift left. Good job!
Yeah the BAMM models had a major shift. We'll probably continue to see minor shifts towards the left from the other models as they continue to lock on to the system.
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907. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm looking at the new plots it seems that TD4 has slowed in movements take a look

AL, 04, 2010080218, , BEST, 0, 12.8N 41.8W 30, 1006, TD

AL, 04, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 12.3N 40.3W 30, 1006, TD,

AL, 04, 2010080206, , BEST, 0, 11.8N 39.1W 25, 1007, LO,

AL, 04, 2010080200, , BEST, 0, 11.2N 38.0W 25, 1007, LO,


It's gone 1.5 west in 6 hrs. vs. 1.1 and 1.2. It's speeding up.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
See how the models flop.....now watch here come the calls for a US landfall from people who flop with each model cycle.

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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Someone post the 18Z spagetti models.!!!


I will when they are finished :)
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hmm looking at the new plots it seems that TD4 has slowed in movements take a look

AL, 04, 2010080218, , BEST, 0, 12.8N 41.8W 30, 1006, TD

AL, 04, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 12.3N 40.3W 30, 1006, TD,

AL, 04, 2010080206, , BEST, 0, 11.8N 39.1W 25, 1007, LO,

AL, 04, 2010080200, , BEST, 0, 11.2N 38.0W 25, 1007, LO,
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Hey guys, I've got my August hurricane outlook up if you want to check it out : Link

Feel free to comment and let me know what I got wrong lol
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901. xcool
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 57 59 58 56 56 57 58
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 51 57 59 58 56 56 57 58
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 49 54 56 55 51 48 48 50

SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 9 8 14 17 33 30 32 18 17 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 -2 0 2 2 3 7 3 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 64 141 258 276 308 269 252 253 275 292 283 303 308
SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 141 146 148 152 150 147 146 148 150 149 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 145 153 151 157 158 158 149 140 136 136 134 127 121
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 12
700-500 MB RH 65 60 61 61 59 57 57 60 63 60 59 58 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 28 28 28 23 -7 -35 -63 -92 -105 -97 -70
200 MB DIV 8 -2 4 -3 13 30 49 31 20 11 -4 14 15
LAND (KM) 1422 1311 1212 1151 1123 948 703 498 529 690 856 982 969
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 17.3 19.3 21.0 22.8 24.7 27.0 28.4 29.3
LONG(DEG W) 41.8 44.1 46.3 48.7 51.1 55.3 59.1 61.9 63.8 65.5 67.2 68.2 68.5
STM SPEED (KT) 18 23 23 24 23 21 18 14 13 13 11 7 4
HEAT CONTENT 26 29 38 43 74 73 49 47 33 38 29 18 11

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Quoting pottery:
To what do I owe this Doom?


The Curse of Cthulu?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
897. xcool



models left.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Models shifted slightly towards the left as noted on the TVCN.

12z TVCN:

AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 0, 123N, 403W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 12, 135N, 437W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 24, 146N, 477W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 36, 161N, 517W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 48, 184N, 570W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 60, 204N, 605W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 72, 224N, 632W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 84, 244N, 653W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 96, 261N, 667W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 108, 278N, 675W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 120, 296N, 678W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 132, 316N, 678W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

18z TVCN:

AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 0, 128N, 418W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 12, 138N, 450W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 24, 152N, 499W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 36, 169N, 540W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 48, 188N, 576W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 60, 205N, 607W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 72, 224N, 633W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 84, 242N, 655W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 96, 259N, 672W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 108, 275N, 685W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 120, 292N, 694W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 132, 312N, 700W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


lol you should see the BAMS, not a slight shift there ;).. I predicted that the models would shift left today and a few hours ago, you predicted the models would shift left. Good job!
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BAMM models have shifted to the south and left of previous runs.
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So are the new model runs out? And if so did they shift west?
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861 - I like their reasoning. I am not sold on the weakness yet. I see a little of one but I am not really sure on the strength.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
890. IKE
12Z ECMWF @ 144 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Morning all -Wishcasting this for a fishstorm...
But with the models shifting west.....hmmmm
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Quoting markinthedark:
WOW hate to dissapoint you but the season has not really even started yet....


Agree w/ Mark. "Cue the graph"...I'm sure someone has it ready to post! :) (Ike, DestinJeff...?)
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Quoting pottery:
Hello Orca.
You have been misbehaving?
While me and my entire property sinks slowly into a quagmire of pullulating ooze that slithers about outside the bolted door and creeps up the walls and over the parapet of the locked windowsills into my mouldy sanctuary where mushrooms sprout and mosses drool like incandescent kelp.
To what do I owe this Doom?


Umm safe to assume that blob went over your house? ummmm it was KOG's idea.
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Quoting guygee:
From this morning, an unusually detailed discussion on the models handling of TD4 from HPC:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
855 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 06 2010 - 12Z MON AUG 09 2010
[...]ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 12N 41W THIS MORNING...WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FLING NEAR OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE MULTI-DAY WAVERING IS AROUND A TRACK WHICH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES UP THE BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE ECMWFS ATTEMPT TO RECURVE THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE ATLANTIC CANADA IN A WEEK...BUT JUST AS MANY WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS. THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT TO ITS NORTH SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS FLORIDA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS TRACK EXPECTATION AND CONTINUITY FROM THE 16Z CALL ON SUNDAY...THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS USED AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD TO BE DITCHED FOR THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...AND CHANGES MAY OCCUR DURING THE
16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC TODAY.
ROTH

After a TD is called, the NHC is the sole civilian owner, from this afternoon's HPC's report,
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
207 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010

VALID 12Z WED AUG 04 2010 - 12Z SUN AUG 08 2010
[...]THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH TODAY IS STARTING NEAR 9N 35W...WITH A SPREAD IN FORECAST POSITIONS AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GROWING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THE FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 850-500 MB RIDGE DAYS 6-7 SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWER FORWARD MOTION. SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.
PETERSEN


Based on the updated graphics, the solution appears to be closing off the exit out to sea with high pressure to the north. The storm such as it is then drifts back towards the NC coast.
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BAMMS appear to be quite a bit slower and much further left.
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Quoting angiest:


That didn't look to be related to TD04.


You are right, its a new (potential) development..but any feature upstream of TD 4 will likely affect its behavior.
Quoting Skyepony:


It's slowly improved this year. Both it & the MM5s started way off but showed well the last one too. They tweeked the CMC in i think beginning of 2009.


I think 4-d var and more levels in the vertical
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Quoting pottery:
Hello Orca.
You have been misbehaving?
While me and my entire property sinks slowly into a quagmire of pullulating ooze that slithers about outside the bolted door and creeps up the walls and over the parapet of the locked windowsills into my mouldy sanctuary where mushrooms sprout and mosses drool like incandescent kelp.
To what do I owe this Doom?


What a wonderfully Lovecraftian post!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Models shifted slightly towards the left as noted on the TVCN.

12z TVCN:

AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 0, 123N, 403W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 12, 135N, 437W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 24, 146N, 477W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 36, 161N, 517W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 48, 184N, 570W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 60, 204N, 605W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 72, 224N, 632W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 84, 244N, 653W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 96, 261N, 667W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 108, 278N, 675W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 120, 296N, 678W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080212, 03, TVCN, 132, 316N, 678W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

18z TVCN:

AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 0, 128N, 418W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 12, 138N, 450W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 24, 152N, 499W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 36, 169N, 540W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 48, 188N, 576W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 60, 205N, 607W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 72, 224N, 633W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 84, 242N, 655W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 96, 259N, 672W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 108, 275N, 685W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 120, 292N, 694W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080218, 03, TVCN, 132, 312N, 700W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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0z UKMET ensembles were split with half showing a US landfall and half showing a recurve like the operational run.



The 0z ECMWF ensemble mean showed the trough of low pressure which would indicate Colin right near the Bahamas in 6 days....well south of the operational run:

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879. SLU
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 41.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 39.1W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 37.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The thermodynamics seem to be slightly negative in the vicinity of TD #4 which explains why the system is having a few problems generating significant convection.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
BAMM models point to North Carolina, a drastic westward shift on the models AS EXPECTED!!
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Hello Orca.
You have been misbehaving?
While me and my entire property sinks slowly into a quagmire of pullulating ooze that slithers about outside the bolted door and creeps up the walls and over the parapet of the locked windowsills into my mouldy sanctuary where mushrooms sprout and mosses drool like incandescent kelp.
To what do I owe this Doom?
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04L/TD/XX
MARK
13.30N/42.78W
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Quoting Orcasystems:



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Where do you get the model KML?
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TD4 doesnt look so bad. Cloud tops are no very cold but the system is still sustaining them. The system is far from being naked
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872. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 021828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC MON AUG 2 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042010) 20100802 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100802 1800 100803 0600 100803 1800 100804 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 41.8W 14.1N 45.8W 15.5N 49.9W 17.0N 54.2W
BAMD 12.8N 41.8W 13.9N 45.1W 15.2N 48.2W 16.3N 51.3W
BAMM 12.8N 41.8W 13.9N 45.3W 15.3N 49.1W 16.8N 52.8W
LBAR 12.8N 41.8W 13.7N 44.9W 14.9N 48.4W 16.1N 51.8W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100804 1800 100805 1800 100806 1800 100807 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 58.4W 22.2N 65.5W 24.7N 70.8W 27.0N 74.3W
BAMD 17.5N 54.2W 19.6N 58.3W 20.2N 60.1W 19.2N 61.9W
BAMM 18.4N 56.3W 21.6N 61.7W 23.7N 65.3W 25.1N 68.7W
LBAR 17.2N 55.0W 19.1N 60.4W 22.8N 64.6W 23.3N 66.7W
SHIP 57KTS 58KTS 56KTS 58KTS
DSHP 57KTS 58KTS 56KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 41.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 39.1W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 37.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
models continue to indicate it moving towards bermuda , but i cant see that happening with this rapid movement its going at then if a turn is going to make a turn its going to do it closer to the US
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868. IKE
Quoting BadHurricane:


It seems that the biggest problem are dry air. What do you think?


Agree.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
to answer you angiest it is the CMC model and I expect in the next 48-72 hours for the rest of the models to follow
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18Z Models are starting to roll in

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Quoting Drakoen:


I wasn't


Noted
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Quoting Drakoen:
AL, 04, 2010080218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 418W, 30, 1006, TD


A good call, NHC will likely not upgrade 04L at 5PM, and there is no need to.
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We could have a sneaker if it stays weak.
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HWRF shifted way westward..
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From this morning, an unusually detailed discussion on the models handling of TD4 from HPC:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
855 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 06 2010 - 12Z MON AUG 09 2010
[...]ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 12N 41W THIS MORNING...WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FLING NEAR OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE MULTI-DAY WAVERING IS AROUND A TRACK WHICH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES UP THE BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE ECMWFS ATTEMPT TO RECURVE THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE ATLANTIC CANADA IN A WEEK...BUT JUST AS MANY WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS. THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT TO ITS NORTH SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS FLORIDA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS TRACK EXPECTATION AND CONTINUITY FROM THE 16Z CALL ON SUNDAY...THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS USED AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD TO BE DITCHED FOR THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...AND CHANGES MAY OCCUR DURING THE
16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC TODAY.
ROTH

After a TD is called, the NHC is the sole civilian owner, from this afternoon's HPC's report,
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
207 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010

VALID 12Z WED AUG 04 2010 - 12Z SUN AUG 08 2010
[...]THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH TODAY IS STARTING NEAR 9N 35W...WITH A SPREAD IN FORECAST POSITIONS AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GROWING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THE FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 850-500 MB RIDGE DAYS 6-7 SHOULD LEAD TO SLOWER FORWARD MOTION. SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.
PETERSEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting help4u:
For a season that was suppose to be active,91l going to die according to Dr Masters,and nothing else for awhile to watch,this season has scored a big fat O!!
WOW hate to dissapoint you but the season has not really even started yet....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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