Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
GFS a little weaker on this run, but the path is eerily similar to the latest ECMWF...shower curtain area....




And there looks like Danielle in the rear view.
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2619. IKE
GFS a little weaker w/91L on this run, but the path is eerily similar to the latest ECMWF...shower curtain area....high pressure builds back in over the SE USA. Looks aimed toward....the GOM.



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Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS@ 108 hours....



GFS very close to ECMWF not a good sign there.
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looks like its forming some banding to the north.

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2615. java162
where should this future hurricane go???

will it impact the lesser antilies???
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2614. tkeith
My calander says it's August 1st...looks like pre-season is over.
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MORNING
it looks more than likely that we may soon have our next named storm newly desinated 91L is organising quicly and we may have TD 3 as early as monday early day light sat photos show this system near 10N 35 W moving west at 15 mph. there is a 1009 MB low with this disturbance. 91L is showing good 850MB vorticity as welll as good convergence and divergence. it is within a large envelope of moisture which will protect it from the dry air to it's morth. the system will track to the west for a few days, as it is at the the southern periphery of the strong ridge to it's north. all interest in the Lesser A ntilles should monitor the movement of this developing disturbance. Residents should begin to review their hurricane plansas of now
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2612. IKE
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning everyone.So do we officially have 91L this morning?


Yes...
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning everyone.So do we officially have 91L this morning?


We sure do!

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Good morning everyone.So do we officially have 91L this morning?
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2609. IKE
Latest GFS@ 108 hours....

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Quoting 1992Andrew:
91L is approaching the all important 10 N latitude. Now let's see if it'll separate itself from the ITCZ.


Looks like it will, first biggie of the season. I thought 90l was the first, but this is probably it. The shear thus far has been devastating, but the SST's will eventually win.

And the first will be a biggie.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
ON Central Atlantic - Visible Loop i see something else at 45 west 10.5 north.. maybe some to watch there to.


You may be right about that one too. Looks like a mini 91l.
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This must be what I'm seeing.

.TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 53W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE NOTED ON
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN
50W AND 58W.
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Quoting texwarhawk:

Not much anymore its at 14N 46W

Link


Oh. Ok. Yeah was weird that they fell like that last night. Mighta been a glitch.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think that's where someone posted the buoy information last night with crazy pressure falls. More there now than then.


Look just east of the islands thats spinning too. Lol.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think that's where someone posted the buoy information last night with crazy pressure falls. More there now than then.

Not much anymore its at 14N 46W

Link
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
ON Central Atlantic - Visible Loop i see something else at 45 west 10.5 north.. maybe some to watch there to.


I think that's where someone posted the buoy information last night with crazy pressure falls. More there now than then.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
So anyway...953 pretty strong storm.



Yes, especially for a global model, but it is a higher resolution.
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2595. IKE
915UTC...




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Quoting texwarhawk:


I never said I know how to figure it out LOL you can get distance between two lat/lon points from nhc- its not cheating, its using resources!


Ah I see. I wouldn't have known where to look. Sometimes Google's my friend - sometimes I yell at it because it's sposed to know what I want! Lol.
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2591. IKE
From latest San Juan discussion....

"AT 01/00Z THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUN BROUGHT THE AXIS OF THE
NEXT WAVE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 05/23Z AND
06/06Z WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF BRINGS
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND IS
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS THAN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS IT AT 21.3
DEGREES NORTH AT 06/12Z NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER IS GIVING THIS SYSTEM A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS OF 2 AM THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY THAT IT WILL OR WILL NOT DEVELOP AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK
ONCE IT HAS DEVELOPED IF IT DOES SO...BUT EITHER WAY...SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL FALL IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD BRING THEIR
SEASONAL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANES TO COMPLETION SOON. RAINS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK."
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. But at least you know how to figure that out. :) It is strange that it's so big now but the EURO showing a small tight storm. Neither one of those choices are good.


I never said I know how to figure it out LOL you can get distance between two lat/lon points from nhc- its not cheating, its using resources!
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Quoting texwarhawk:

Well it could be worse- it seems I'm doing size calculations from lat/lon points and a nm-mi calculator


Lol. But at least you know how to figure that out. :) It is strange that it's so big now but the EURO showing a small tight storm. Neither one of those choices are good.
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Vorticity has been increasing in last hr. Looks much better organized than when I signed off yesterday ~4:30 p.m CDT.

Vorticity
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
LOL. Its no use. I'm getting squint lines from searching for a center spin on satellite. This might mean I'm addicted to internet storms. Lol.

Well it could be worse- it seems I'm doing size calculations from lat/lon points and a nm-mi calculator
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This thing is enormous- the main convection (the high cloud tops) is 78,300 square miles- Flordia is 65,795 square miles.
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LOL. Its no use. I'm getting squint lines from searching for a center spin on satellite. This might mean I'm addicted to internet storms. Lol.
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2584. IKE
I think the NHC will raise the odds on 91L...either 50% or maybe even 60% on the update.

It's August 1st....as Dr. Masters says...the real season begins now.... and it's right on cue.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah. I see what you're saying. You could be right.


Look at the unenhanced loop. Really looks like a spin on 9/35.
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2582. IKE



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Quoting texwarhawk:

looks like maybe 9N 35W, you got to slow the speed of the loop down really slow and watch


Yeah. I see what you're saying. You could be right.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


You can really see the spin on dvorak loop.

Edit. No clue whats spinning though. :)

looks like maybe 9N 35W, you got to slow the speed of the loop down really slow and watch
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2579. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE
GULF OF HONDURAS MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W WILL
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT REACHING ALONG 63W MON...67W
TUE...73W WED...AND AND ALONG 79W THU. LOW PRESSURE WELL E OF
THE AREA WILL MOVE NW REACHING NEAR 17N55W WED AFTERNOON AND
PASS TO THE N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

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2578. JLPR2
Well I'm off to bed while you guys wake up LOL!

So far nothing for PR why? The ants are acting normally.
But if in the coming days I see a bunch of ants dancing to Michael Jackson's Thriller you know something is going to happen. LOL!
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2577. IKE
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2576. JLPR2
Quoting palmpt:


I just read this. My family and I were nearly washed away by Katrina in Biloxi. There is a stage 6: why did we stay here and a stage 7: God help us.


oh yes, well in my case it stays there, thanks to the fact that I live in a concrete building in an area that rarely floods.
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91L is approaching the all important 10 N latitude. Now let's see if it'll separate itself from the ITCZ.
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2574. palmpt
Quoting JLPR2:


haha!
My dad gets stuck in phase 1 and my mom goes thru all the phases LOL!


I just read this. My family and I were nearly washed away by Katrina in Biloxi. There is a stage 6: why did we stay here and a stage 7: God help us.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
Im actualy foretasting this hotdog (you know the drill ... smell it ... touch it ... squeeze it a little .. check for nasty spots ...)to see if it is okay to eat after nearly a week in the fridge... so far so good! Breakfast!


Lol.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
Im actualy foretasting this hotdog (you know the drill ... smell it ... touch it ... squeeze it a little .. check for nasty spots ...)to see if it is okay to eat after nearly a week in the fridge... so far so good! Breakfast!


I'll take anything right now! I'm starving but don't wanna go to the grocery store.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

XD...


hmmm? Somehow fish taster seems kind of normal? LOL
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Im actualy foretasting this hotdog (you know the drill ... smell it ... touch it ... squeeze it a little .. check for nasty spots ...)to see if it is okay to eat after nearly a week in the fridge... so far so good! Breakfast!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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