Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2670. IKE
WeekiWacheeWoman:

Your screen name reminds me of this song...Link
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Quoting IKE:


High pressure can be the USA's best friend.

............................................


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD
10 KT OR LESS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 9N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND
34W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.


Worst nightmare if u ask me
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2668. IKE
Quoting WeekiWacheeWoman:


Ah! I thought so. Where does it live?


South FL.
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Quoting IKE:


JFV...aka....20 screen names blogger.


Ah! I thought so. Where does it live?
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Shouldn't this be the artist formerly known as 90L?
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morning ho77yw00d
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Quoting msgambler:
Yeah Ike, I love the letter "H" this time of year. Ya have to deal with a little extra heat but it keeps the storms away.


HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII...
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even with those possible paths, the early models, still show 7-9 days out a strong storm heading towards fl or the keys.,lets hope the high can recurve it back out into atlantic or well south of conus
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2661. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
Yeah Ike, I love the letter "H" this time of year. Ya have to deal with a little extra heat but it keeps the storms away.


Amen.
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Yeah Ike, I love the letter "H" this time of year. Ya have to deal with a little extra heat but it keeps the storms away.
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2659. IKE
Quoting WindynEYW:
possible paths based on steady high over conus


High pressure can be the USA's best friend.

............................................


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD
10 KT OR LESS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 9N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND
34W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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possible paths based on steady high over conus
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This cant be good. A high to my east and a low to my west. Good thing it's still far away. And good morning msgambler. :)

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2655. IKE
Tropical Development Possible in the Next 48 Hours

Aug 1, 2010 7:02 AM


A tropical wave centered near 35 west and south of 13 north continues to become better organized with thunderstorms currently flaring up between 40 and 30 west. Another tropical wave is just to the south of the Cape Verde Islands and it may add a boost of energy to the front running wave over the next day or two. Favorable upper-level conditions aloft and plenty of warm water in its path will aid this feature in strengthening and it could become a tropical depression or storm over the next day or two. Computer models continue to show the possibility of this system being a well developed tropical cyclone as it tracks west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles, possibly reaching the Leeward Islands by Wednesday or Thursday of next week. A west-northwest track from there could take it near Bahamas or Florida or even into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend or early the following week.

Another tropical wave over the south-central Caribbean is being vented and sheared by an upper- level trough of low pressure moving west that extends from Hispaniola to the south of Jamaica. If the upper trough can back off to the west fast enough, the tropical wave could strengthen on its way into Central America on Monday; however, the chance for development into an organized tropical system remains low. Either way, locally heavy rain will fall across parts of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras during the middle of the week.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Bob Smerbeck and Eric Leister.
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2654. WxLogic
Good Morning...

EMWF quite bullish in the run with a possible major HURR approaching the SE US as well as CMC but not surprised there.

GFS has been quite consistent at its evolution but keeping it rather weak considering the beginning of a positive MJO and which I would expect to extend well into the peak of the HURR season.

In regards possible tracks, I have to say that a track close to the northern Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles will be quite possible, given the strength of the A/B High.
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GOOD MORNING... when did it become a invest? went to bed early last night
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2652. ssmate
Quoting weatherwart:
Good morning, all. It seems like the early models are showing a path similar to Bonnie, yes?
hurricane23 predicted that last night. I guess Adrian is pretty sharp.
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Sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values as high as 104. Southwest wind around 5 mph

Current Humidity- 94%

Link
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0z UKMET develops 91L.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF has a Category 3 hurricane in the GOMEX (953 mb)


http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_grads.asp?mt=00&mod=ecmwfUED&mv0=hgtprs&cap= 850mb Height Temperature Winds&hr=loop&step=2&gs=ecmwfUED_850_hgt_tmp_wdb_2&uid=1280660755760&map=conus&gv0=A
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2648. smuldy
Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF has a Category 3 hurricane in the GOMEX (953 mb)


Someone pointed out earlier a difference in the pressure between global runs and actual storm pressure so 953 may not directly translate to a Cat 3 and that reading seems suspiciously high given that fact (could be a flaw with the model run)
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Morning everyone Evening Aussie.
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2646. IKE
Quoting WeekiWacheeWoman:
What does shower curtain area mean? Thanks...


JFV...aka....20 screen names blogger.
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I dont know whether this has been mentioned on this site before,,but may I recomend a new book,,"Infinite Monster", by Leigh Jones and Rhiannon Meyers, dealing with Hurricane Ike and the aftermath on Galveston and in Galveston County.....Very, very well written and chilling, to see some of the reactions govt. officials and residents who chose to stay.....I live in Katy, 60 miles inland, but still remember well the concerns of those 3 days.....Found the book yesterday in Galveston, and it is available from Amazon.....
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Looks like I will be spending my Birthday getting them boards out of the shed again.LOL!!!!!!!
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2643. IKE
Latest nogaps a southern track...
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0z ECMWF

192hrs

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What does shower curtain area mean? Thanks...
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thats not good Cyber.


Morning.
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Good morning, all. It seems like the early models are showing a path similar to Bonnie, yes?
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Thats not good Cyber.
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2635. smuldy
Both runs seem to have it pass over the Keys and or Miami area and ECMWF has a good record of late but that said at 8 days out anything can happen especially with no positive COC identified for models to chew through yet could even still dissipate like a lot of the other waves have thus far if the models truly see a "Danielle" so close behind (usually the storm in front takes too much energy for another to form right on its heels so I'd say that is suspect which raises questions about veracity of all of these long term models
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00z ECMWF has a Category 3 hurricane in the GOMEX (953 mb)
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Quoting 34chip:
Thanks! is Florida or the florida keys looks like it might get it then??
Quoting 34chip:
Are these going to be a fish storm or not?? Thanks!

to early to tell at this moment in time, weather forecasting is not an exact science. 91L needs to be watched as conditions seem favorable for development.
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Very impressive system. but,91L still needs to separate from the ITCZ. The next 48 hours should tell on whether we will see something out of 91L.
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2631. IKE
Quoting 34chip:
Thanks! is Florida or the florida keys looks like it might get it then??


It's possible...too far out in time though...it could change.
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2629. java162
Quoting IKE:
GFS a little weaker on this run, but the path is eerily similar to the latest ECMWF...shower curtain area....






i see collin and the :"D" storm on here
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Quoting 34chip:
Are these going to be a fish storm or not?? Thanks!


There is no way we can accurately say YES or NO at this time. Models suggest different solutions. Either way it should be watched.
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2627. 34chip
Quoting IKE:


Doesn't look likely.
Thanks! is Florida or the florida keys looks like it might get it then??
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Quoting IKE:
NHC might as well raise it to 60%. It's getting that look to it on each updated image.


yeah the convection has been very consistent and the model support by the GFS and ECMWF is very supportive.
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2625. IKE
Quoting 34chip:
Are these going to be a fish storm or not?? Thanks!


Doesn't look likely.
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2624. 34chip
Are these going to be a fish storm or not?? Thanks!
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2623. IKE
NHC might as well raise it to 60%. It's getting that look to it on each updated image.
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2622. IKE
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hey Ike.Thank you for showing me that.And thanks to everyone who replied.I see it has picked up forward speed as well.Moving West at 15mph.Wasnt it moving about 8-10 last night?Gonna get interesting in here today.Shucks, and I gotta go to work.


Strong high pressure building in the north Atlantic...it should get 91L moving along.


Quoting sporteguy03:

And there looks like Danielle in the rear view.


Right on cue in the ATL.
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Hey Ike.Thank you for showing me that.And thanks to everyone who replied.I see it has picked up forward speed as well.Moving West at 15mph.Wasnt it moving about 8-10 last night?Gonna get interesting in here today.Shucks, and I gotta go to work.
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Quoting IKE:
GFS a little weaker on this run, but the path is eerily similar to the latest ECMWF...shower curtain area....




And there looks like Danielle in the rear view.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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