Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2770. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Yea, I know its too far out to lock down the track, but when the ECMWF--shows that-- it gets my attention.


It's the best model to follow. If it locks in on intensity for a couple of more runs, better start hoping it turns into a fish.

It may back off again on the 12Z run. Seems unlikely, but it could.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2769. scott39
Quoting IKE:


That would probably be a disaster.
Yea, I know its too far out to lock down the track, but when the ECMWF--shows that-- it gets my attention.
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Quoting msgambler:
Yeah Ike, I love the letter "H" this time of year. Ya have to deal with a little extra heat but it keeps the storms away.
Here in the Blue Ridge we mostly hate it. Means drought. A huge slow rainmaker out of the gulf is our only hope for moisture in the summer months. Not wishing anyone ill but a shift to the north east for your beloved high would not be all bad. Just keep the Cat # low for landfall and we'd be happy. Wonder how Atlanta reservoirs are looking.
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91L is HUGE. And its circle in the TWO map is egg-shaped. O_O
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i know right? im at work this morning. i still cant get my pic in my avatar.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looking forward to it Storm and good morning to everyone.


Good morning to you!

And thanks Storm. Looking forward to your post and hopefully I will be awake enough by this afternoon to understand it. lol.
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I'm off now until this afternoon. Have a good morning all.
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Quoting deautschlandfutbol:

good morning alaina!

Morning!!

Im so glad we have something to track.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
2761. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning-- Ike what do you think of the latest ECMWF 00 run?


That would probably be a disaster.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2760. msphar
5 - 10 respectable speed for a sailboat in the open ocean. Still looks like ITCZ stuff rather than truing to separate.
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So now it's 91L?

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Quoting PRweathercenter:
Invest 91 Possilbe Threat to Puerto Rico





Blog For Puerto Rico and N.island residentsLink

O_O
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Quoting alaina1085:
Morning!
Finally got her designated huh? Its gonna be a long week.
How's everyone feeling?

good morning alaina!
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Quoting java162:
why are the tracks for 91L are pulling so far north?????

kinda reminds me of bill form last year!!!


See my post at 2721 for the answer.
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Nice little spin to the littler blob at 47w 10 to 11n.
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Good morning.

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Buenos dias from South Texas!
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2752. java162
why are the tracks for 91L are pulling so far north?????

kinda reminds me of bill form last year!!!
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Quoting IKE:


3 week vacation..nice! Welcome back.


Actually two weeks. Hit the wrong key LOL. Maybe wishful thinking was at work there !
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Wow, ECMWF really wants to ramp this up, which seems pretty reasonable. The track will have to be nailed down as time goes by....

ECMWF on 8-9...

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2749. Becca36
Quoting ho77yw00d:


morning Becca! :)

Morning Ho77yw00d!
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2748. Dakster
Yeah, looks like this one is at least heading for the "area" that Florida needs to be concerned about. (I won't mention the name).

Have to wait and see... Patiently (well not really) waiting for the experts synopsis on the forming storm.
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CNN is reporting deaths now more than one thousand from flooding in Pakistan. More monsoon rains are expected.
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Invest 91 Possilbe Threat to Puerto Rico





Blog For Puerto Rico and N.island residentsLink
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2743. scott39
Goodmorning-- Ike what do you think of the latest ECMWF 00 run?
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2742. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there. I was off the blog for about 3 weeks on vacation and really enjoyed the break from work. First vacation in a year which is not good but some years are like that. Better busy than the alternative !.

August 1st is here and 91L with it right on cue. Just a watch and wait for now though.


3 week vacation..nice! Welcome back.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
think this is of our friend
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2740. IKE
91L looks like another monsoonal type...like Alex.

I don't see any ULL's around.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
This is the very thing Storm has been warning us about for the last 2 weeks.
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Quoting alaina1085:

Hey Kman!
I was just asking everyone yesterday where you have been. I see you been out of the country. Hope you enjoyed, and drink an energy drink maybe that will help with your golf game? haha.


Hi there. I was off the blog for about 3 weeks on vacation and really enjoyed the break from work. First vacation in a year which is not good but some years are like that. Better busy than the alternative !.

August 1st is here and 91L with it right on cue. Just a watch and wait for now though.
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Quoting StormW:
Greetings,
I see we have 91L. If I don't have one out by this afternoon, I'll have a synopsis on 91L late tonight.


Good morning Storm, We look forward to it!
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Quoting texwarhawk:
Looks like the man convection is trying to pull together.


I think we have a hurricane in the makings
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Quoting breald:


Jet lag is always worse the next day. It sometimes takes me a few days to recover. I think your golf game is going to be a disappointment...lol


I hope not, we play for a dollar or two LOL
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2733. IKE
John Hope...you are missed. Never hyped his outlook. Straight shooter. Told it like it was.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2732. Dakster
Quoting StormW:
Greetings,
I see we have 91L. If I don't have one out by this afternoon, I'll have a synopsis on 91L late tonight.



Good Morning Senior Chief...

Need me to make a coffee run for you?
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2731. IKE
Quoting boteman:


TWC = The Worthless Channel


I get a kick out of their "local on the 8's", 10 second intro, into the local weather....at :23 after the hour!!!!! WTH?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting kmanislander:


I am more tired this morning than I was last night LOL. Hopefully my golf game won't suffer too much today !.

I just took a look at the medium term steering forecasts ( 48 to 72 hrs out ) and those all show the Azores high centered well off to the NE with a weakness off the US SE coast between the W flank of the high and another high over the Southern CONUS.

This is what the models are latching onto to allow 91L to make that WNW move until being forced more on a flatter track just N of Cuba.

The problem with all of this is that a slow mover like 91L can hang around far South long enough for the upper air dynamics to shift dramatically in any direction.



Yup. Anything can happen with a storm that's only moving about 5-10mph.

Take the cart. Play nine holes. ;)
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2729. Caneguy
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
My disclaimer...Everyone should not jump on the models with 91L today. Give them 24hours to lock onto the storm. Save all the model talk until tomorrow because the track that it spits out today will be way way off. Thanks.


I prefer to see the discussions on the models myself. Those who wish to talk about them, please feel free.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I am more tired this morning than I was last night LOL. Hopefully my golf game won't suffer too much today !.

I just took a look at the medium term steering forecasts ( 48 to 72 hrs out ) and those all show the Azores high centered well off to the NE with a weakness off the US SE coast between the W flank of the high and another high over the Southern CONUS.

This is what the models are latching onto to allow 91L to make that WNW move until being forced more on a flatter track just N of Cuba.

The problem with all of this is that a slow mover like 91L can hang around far South long enough for the upper air dynamics to shift dramatically in any direction.


Hey Kman!
I was just asking everyone yesterday where you have been. I see you been out of the country. Hope you enjoyed, and drink an energy drink maybe that will help with your golf game? haha.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
2727. breald
Quoting kmanislander:


I am more tired this morning than I was last night LOL. Hopefully my golf game won't suffer too much today !.

I just took a look at the medium term steering forecasts ( 48 to 72 hrs out ) and those all show the Azores high centered well off to the NE with a weakness off the US SE coast between the W flank of the high and another high over the Southern CONUS.

This is what the models are latching onto to allow 91L to make that WNW move until being forced more on a flatter track just N of Cuba.

The problem with all of this is that a slow mover like 91L can hang around far South long enough for the upper air dynamics to shift dramatically in any direction.



Jet lag is always worse the next day. It sometimes takes me a few days to recover. I think your golf game is going to be a disappointment...lol
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2726. boteman
Quoting clwstmchasr:
TWC on the update just said that the NHC gives it a "medium" chance for development.

I guess they didn't hit refresh on their computer.


TWC = The Worthless Channel
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Quoting StormW:
Greetings,
I see we have 91L. If I don't have one out by this afternoon, I'll have a synopsis on 91L late tonight.

Looking forward to it Storm and good morning to everyone.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dry air probably won't be a problem.

I'm noticing that 91L has so much moisture around it, Dry Air will moisten up by the time it gets to 91L.
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2723. pcola57
60%...Hmmmm...NHC likes to play those middle numbers...i see 91L became more robust last night...i think 91L is gonna explode today and move north trying to get off the ITCZ a bit...JMO...not wish casting just my 2 cents...
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Quoting weatherwart:
Morning, Kman. Jet lag all gone?

Agreed, until we have a closed low, everything is tentative. It's interesting to speculate, but it's a watch and wait game now.


I am more tired this morning than I was last night LOL. Hopefully my golf game won't suffer too much today !.

I just took a look at the medium term steering forecasts ( 48 to 72 hrs out ) and those all show the Azores high centered well off to the NE with a weakness off the US SE coast between the W flank of the high and another high over the Southern CONUS.

This is what the models are latching onto to allow 91L to make that WNW move until being forced more on a flatter track just N of Cuba.

The problem with all of this is that a slow mover like 91L can hang around far South long enough for the upper air dynamics to shift dramatically in any direction.

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2720. java162
i cant believe TWC is that slow..... in their recent update they still said it had a medium chance of development!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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