Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:


It showed about the same as it's showing now.



Nah. It didn't even show a surface circulation, this looks more organized.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
A picture to help "cool things off".



Polar Imbalance

Image courtesy Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory

A thin red line shows where the Antarctic ice sheet starts flowing off land and over the ocean
—a border called the grounding line—
in a section from a new mosaic of satellite data released July 23.

Led by scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center,
the ice-mapping project includes precise data on elevation,
which has revealed that Antarctica is losing ice mass along its coasts faster than snowfall is building up in the continent's interior.

The imbalance suggests that Antarctic ice loss is contributing to sea level rise.

Published July 29, 2010


http://global-warming.accuweather.com/temp_trends-thumb.jpg

Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
168. IKE
Quoting Snowlover123:


And the ECMWF didn't even develop the system.


It showed about the same as it's showing now.

..............................................


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bonnie had to deal with constant TUTT lows intruding it...this feature might not. Take a look at the GFS day 7, favorable upper level ridging atop the system.



Maybe the GFS will be correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon all, (Hello Chicklet)

I just stopped in to check on the progress of 90L and the Cari-blob, only to discover they have both become much less interesting.

It's currently 95F and 57% rh for a Heat Index of 110F. Bight sun and hot pavement with no clouds in sight. To say it's hot here would be an understatement. (The Pool is at 92F and climbing!!!) We're forecast for a high of 100F tomorrow. That's not a heat index that's just the temperature. I wonder what this will do to the local GOM temperatures if anything.

Iced Tea is over by the fridge, help yourselves. It's too hot for Bourbon right now; perhaps later.
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Ex90L is trying to get better organized and work with the broad area if low pressure it has. Deep convection firing nicely to the east of the trough axis which is a good sign.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
A picture to help "cool things off".



Polar Imbalance

Image courtesy Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory

A thin red line shows where the Antarctic ice sheet starts flowing off land and over the ocean
—a border called the grounding line—
in a section from a new mosaic of satellite data released July 23.

Led by scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center,
the ice-mapping project includes precise data on elevation,
which has revealed that Antarctica is losing ice mass along its coasts faster than snowfall is building up in the continent's interior.

The imbalance suggests that Antarctic ice loss is contributing to sea level rise.

Published July 29, 2010


Really? If it's melting along the edge, why is Sea Ice increasing?
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
A picture to help "cool things off".



Polar Imbalance

Image courtesy Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory

A thin red line shows where the Antarctic ice sheet starts flowing off land and over the ocean
—a border called the grounding line—
in a section from a new mosaic of satellite data released July 23.

Led by scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center,
the ice-mapping project includes precise data on elevation,
which has revealed that Antarctica is losing ice mass along its coasts faster than snowfall is building up in the continent's interior.

The imbalance suggests that Antarctic ice loss is contributing to sea level rise.

Published July 29, 2010
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Quoting IKE:


Look at what Bonnie went through.
Bonnie had to deal with constant TUTT lows intruding it...this feature might not. Take a look at the GFS day 7, favorable upper level ridging atop the system.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep. But I'm still not paying attention to it past 65W.


Good call.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Back later.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:




Hmmm. The ECMWF seems to be depicting a weak system. If it is a strong hurricane by the time it reaches 60 W, I expect the beta effect alone would push it further north than that, if the ridge and steering currents are otherwise the same.

Is there any reason why 90L would develop into a storm, and then stay relatively weak, like a tropical storm? It seems to me with the waters so warm, even if conditions aren't ideal, (but not too bad) a Cat 2 or 3 is still reasonable.


The only thing if it develops before 60W would be dry air squishing down from the northeast. Beyond 60W the only issue could be wind shear and misalignment with the upper ridge, but the position of the TUTT wanting to retract northeastward tends to ventilate the area off the SE US, and if it develops into a tropical cyclone I see no reason why it shouldn't strengthen.
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Quoting Levi32:


Why lol. That's not as bad as the southeast CONUS is getting.


Oh lordy. Its 97 here today.. >_<
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157. IKE
Quoting TankHead93:
Of course you were thinking that... didn't expect any less from you. Do you have anything to show for your thinking on ex-90L?


Uh...no...not really.
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Quoting IKE:


Look at what Bonnie went through.


And the ECMWF didn't even develop the system.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting JLPR2:


The heat index is at 103*F in my area -.-
I need a pool XD

Same here but it's almost too hot to go to the pool...my pool feels like a pool of sweat!
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Quoting IKE:


That's exactly what I was thinking.
Of course you were thinking that... didn't expect any less from you. Do you have anything to show for your thinking on ex-90L?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:




Hmmm. The ECMWF seems to be depicting a weak system. If it is a strong hurricane by the time it reaches 60 W, I expect the beta effect alone would push it further north than that, if the ridge and steering currents are otherwise the same.

Is there any reason why 90L would develop into a storm, and then stay relatively weak, like a tropical storm? It seems to me with the waters so warm, even if conditions aren't ideal, (but not too bad) a Cat 2 or 3 is still reasonable.


Yup. There is no reason for 90L not to continue strengthening if it gains TD status. If this develops it would be the 2nd system in a row the ECMWF doesn't develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
>Is there any reason why 90L would develop into a storm, and then stay relatively weak, like a tropical storm? It seems to me with the waters so warm, even if conditions aren't ideal, (but not too bad) a Cat 2 or 3 is still reasonable.

NO! We are entering an ice age according to Fox and Friends! lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ECMWF 12z 168 hours -- Still waiting for the entire run to finish on the Raleigh site.



Miami, what is that off the NE coast? Is that a low pressure? I can't tell.
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149. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:




Hmmm. The ECMWF seems to be depicting a weak system. If it is a strong hurricane by the time it reaches 60 W, I expect the beta effect alone would push it further north than that, if the ridge and steering currents are otherwise the same.

Is there any reason why 90L would develop into a storm, and then stay relatively weak, like a tropical storm? It seems to me with the waters so warm, even if conditions aren't ideal, (but not too bad) a Cat 2 or 3 is still reasonable.


Look at what Bonnie went through.
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The spin is still around 35w and 36W. On second thought, it could be 25W. Healthy ITCZ convergence nevertheless!
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Shows a Bonnie repeat, max intensity in Bahama area and then degenerates in the GOM.
Yep. But I'm still not paying attention to it past 65W.
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145. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

88 degrees and sunny here. I wish it was 52 degrees and raining.


The heat index is at 103*F in my area -.-
I need a pool XD
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143. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Shows a Bonnie repeat, max intensity in Bahama area and then degenerates in the GOM.


That's exactly what I was thinking.
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142. IKE
Quoting IKE:
Complete 12Z ECMWF...



Eastern ATL view through August 10th...Link
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Quoting IKE:
Complete 12Z ECMWF...


Shows a Bonnie repeat, max intensity in Bahama area and then degenerates in the GOM.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Levi, hmmm in 124 maybe setting up for this!

Just kidding, of course!




Certainly hope not!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

88 degrees and sunny here. I wish it was 52 degrees and raining.


Why lol. That's not as bad as the southeast CONUS is getting.
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Orange ...currently is my fav color..
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ECMWF 12z 168 hours -- Still waiting for the entire run to finish on the Raleigh site.

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Quoting Levi32:


Ouch lol. 52 degrees and raining here.

88 degrees and sunny here. I wish it was 52 degrees and raining.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. EARLIER
ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED NON-RAINED
FLAGGED NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 48W AND 52W...MAINLY N OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA.

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132. IKE
Complete 12Z ECMWF...
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131. xcool
ECMWFflip-flopping.toomuch
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12z ECMWF by Day 7 keeps ex-90L weak and south, but hints at the broad low in the western Caribbean.

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Quoting Becca36:

Wow. I wonder what will happen when that thing hits water...

sometimes they fall apart.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Nope, Monday thru Friday only.


Too bad..........Their discussions are some of the best IMO........I am sure they will have lots to say on Monday morning.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi all, thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Two in one Saturday is a sign of active tropics.
Don't think they'll designate an invest until the entire area begins to organize. Looks pretty broad right now.


And holy blobova!
Check out the bomb still on the continent.
bbl

Wow. I wonder what will happen when that thing hits water...
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Last night's 0z UKMET 120 hours:

Notice 90L north of the Antilles and the broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean that must also be watched for.

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Anyone know if the NCEP tropical desk updates their Caribbean Outlook over the weekend? They usually do a very good analysis with the models and TUTT issues but have not updated since yesterday afternoon.


Nope, Monday thru Friday only.
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Also with new sites on CIMSS and NRL Monterey associated with the PREDICT program, NHC already has the satellite and microwave images.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Levi32: Have you had any cabbage soup this summer? Any pictures of those large vegetables. Hope I don't get flagged for OT since we're only at orange30 status.


No I haven't....we haven't bought any cabbage this year for some reason. But yes, we do have large vegetable growers in Alaska.
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Anyone know if the NCEP tropical desk updates their Caribbean Outlook over the weekend? They usually do a very good analysis with the models and TUTT issues but have not updated since yesterday afternoon.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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