Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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xcool, are you here? I always enjoy your expert wishcasting. :D
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Ivanhater:
Ike, I suggest using the higher resolution.

Euro strengthens it and pulls in the GOM with a weak ridge





IvanH8R: Oooohhh YUK!! I'm not liking the looks of those at all. Thanks for posting those. Am I reading the text correctly that those are predictions 240 hours out? (My eyes not so good no more.)
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Wonderful, a low pressure and slowly dropping...

I smell 91L from here in Arlington, TX

BBL, taking my 4 yr old grand daughter into the 15' x 42" above ground pool, in the backyard, that's a cool 92F, to cool off!!! Along with a quart of ice water!!
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Quoting Filibuster:
Hi, ^_^.


Ugh. What is your next handle going to be? Pocket Veto? House Rules Committee?
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how do u get the active pics on here
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, the ECMWF never showed Bonnie as a hurricane in any of its runs.. the ECMWF has shown this as a hurricane on several runs but has now pretty much backed off. And all the models, not just the ECMWF never really got Bonnie going thanks to that ULL that was killing it. The NOGAPS and CMC show a hurricane, GFS is picking up on it now as well. The TUTT has pretty much lifted out and 90L, ex-90L, 91L or whatever you want to call it shouldn't have a problem with ULL's or TUTTs. There is a broad area of cyclonic circulation to the west of the system, that will provide a safe haven of low shear for the system.


That's part of why the tropical Atlantic is getting active in spite of the MJO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
213. IKE
Ivanhater...I'd wishcast a 1006mb low right now with it baking like an oven outside.

Here's my pressure now...Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
210. IKE
Quoting Ivanhater:
Ike, I suggest using the higher resolution.

Euro strengthens it and pulls in the GOM with a weak ridge



I've got the same image at 240 hours(Link) on the one I linked for the 144 hour image....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting JLPR2:


But after it rains it ends up hotter and much more uncomfortable. XD
I'll take my blue skies.

If temps were a bit cooler, it would be better. I'm getting a cool breeze, which is nice.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting CybrTeddy:


1009.8 mb.

Wonderful, a low pressure and slowly dropping...

I smell 91L from here in Arlington, TX
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205. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike, I suggest using the higher resolution.

Euro strengthens it and pulls in the GOM with a weak ridge


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
14.357 N 46.008 W
Station 41041 - Middle Atlantic

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.0 °F



1009.8 mb.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


How was Busch Gardens hope you drank plenty of water in the heat.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!

Hi. -_- Conditions are a little too perfect at my house.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting 1900hurricane:

You could try some of these from Dartmouth. They aren't calibrated right for the most part and some of them don't even work, but it's better than nothing.

Also, it looks like it may take some of them a few days to update, so the most current flooding would not be recorded on the graphs yet.
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196. IKE
100.4 °F
Clear
....outside.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
14.357 N 46.008 W
Station 41041 - Middle Atlantic

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 90.0 F

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon chief.

Glad there's nothing in the GOM right now. With this recent heat I'd have to believe the SSTs near the Gulf Coast are sure to rise a couple of deg over the next day or two. (The water is shallow there and it heats faster than further out where deeper).

Ice tea over by the fridge, hep ur sef.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I feel ya. It was nasty here yesterday 80/99. Today we are getting a stiff east breeze, with winds 15 gusting to 20. But that has not stopped us from getting to 92. And the dewpoint is 79. It feels like good hurricane food.

I can't see how the water temp could be lower than 86/87 here. Our local buoy's water thermometer is not working, which is most annoying. The buoy was replaced less than a year ago. Grrrrr.

Dallas Ft Worth,, TX Int'l AP at 1:53PM

A wonderful 97F and Sunny
Rel Hum a low 37% (ha, ha, ha)
Winds VAR at 6 G 16 MPH
Dew Point a low 68F
Heat Index is a crisp 101F
Barometer 29.88" and steady

Walk from a 75F house right into a warm oven!!

Maybe I'll bake some chocolate chip cookies and make sun tea!!
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Quoting Chicklit:
cirrocumulus, they don't have to assign invests on the twos. maybe we'll see one here shortly.

That's weird. Just noticed it says Sept. 2005.
It's on this page africanweather
They probably will assign an invest to "orange30" Make that probably not yet.
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31st
JUL
Invest 90L slow to form

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Invest 90L may soon interact with a larger tropical wave to its East. The interaction will add increased moisture and instability to the system, and some models are developing it much further by late next week. As for now, the two tropical waves are unorganized, with shower and thunderstorm activity scattered throughout. As of 8am Saturday, this system was about 800 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands.

sheena57

Computer models continue tracking it West, some pushing it North of the Caribbean Sea, and some pushing it into the Caribbean Sea. At this time, it’s too far out to tell, so keep checking back for updates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
190. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I need rain... It's alot more soothing than baking temps.


But after it rains it ends up hotter and much more uncomfortable. XD
I'll take my blue skies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, the ECMWF never showed Bonnie as a hurricane in any of its runs.. the ECMWF has shown this as a hurricane on several runs but has now pretty much backed off. And all the models, not just the ECMWF never really got Bonnie going thanks to that ULL that was killing it. The NOGAPS and CMC show a hurricane, GFS is picking up on it now as well. The TUTT has pretty much lifted out and 90L, ex-90L, 91L or whatever you want to call it shouldn't have a problem with ULL's or TUTTs. There is a broad area of cyclonic circulation to the west of the system, that will provide a safe haven of low shear for the system.


Well said! :)
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Still no invest.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
On the blog topic, I'm trying to find river gauges for the Indus River---those would be interesting to see.

You could try some of these from Dartmouth. They aren't calibrated right for the most part and some of them don't even work, but it's better than nothing.
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something off the east coast at 324hr on 12z Gfs
Link
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185. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


That's crazy hot.


My hometown....

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Clear
100.2 °F

Clear
Humidity: 47%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 116 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
97 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 47%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the SSW
Pressure: 29.85 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 107 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Pollen: 2.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 4700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 6500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 154 ft
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Quoting JLPR2:


The heat index is at 103*F in my area -.-
I need a pool XD

I need rain... It's alot more soothing than baking temps.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting IKE:
Milton, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 23 min 6 sec ago
Clear
102 °F

Clear
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 29.78 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 115 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 177 ft


That's crazy hot.
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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks :)


It's dead, this is dead, and this, this is also dead! lol Great video Levi!
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Correct, the ECMWF never showed Bonnie as a hurricane in any of its runs.. the ECMWF has shown this as a hurricane on several runs but has now pretty much backed off. And all the models, not just the ECMWF never really got Bonnie going thanks to that ULL that was killing it. The NOGAPS and CMC show a hurricane, GFS is picking up on it now as well. The TUTT has pretty much lifted out and 90L, ex-90L, 91L or whatever you want to call it shouldn't have a problem with ULL's or TUTTs. There is a broad area of cyclonic circulation to the west of the system, that will provide a safe haven of low shear for the system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
173. xcool
EX90L WAY different FROM Bonnie
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172. IKE
Milton, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 23 min 6 sec ago
Clear
102 °F

Clear
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 29.78 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 115 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 177 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
CybrTeddy do you think that would mean if it were a 110 kt / 950 mb hurricane instead of a tropical storm, that it would track further north than the ECMWF thinks?


Stronger storms tend to go more northward so yes.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Quoting IKE:


It showed about the same as it's showing now.



Nah. It didn't even show a surface circulation, this looks more organized.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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