Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Where is the rule listed?
I've never seen them reactivate an invest, have you?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Sharp V-inverted wave, but no closed low.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
267. xcool
Link

go here.rob..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Once an invest is deactivated it won't be reactivated. The next one is 91L...


Where is the rule listed?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Kerry Emmanuel of MIT wrote about the maximum potential intensity deepening to below 800 mb by the end of the century. He is very very smart and informed about tropical cyclone physics. It's hard for me to see that really happening however. But who knows?

If we really do get hurricanes with central pressures in the high 700 mb range I want scarier names!

Hurricane Cobra
Hurricane Sabretooth

Things like that.


LMAO!!! That would be pretty awesome.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
264. xcool
back tropical weather
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262. JLPR2
Ex 90L is much bigger than yesterday, but it seems the vort is still 90L's not much influence from the TW in that department, but the TW help big time with convection, also its almost d-min in that area and ex90L is developing convection.
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261. xcool
Filibuster so
Your Point poor baby
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I hope this one doesnt develope and make landfall on the east coast or anywhere for that matter
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:
invest 90L LOOKING BETTER
your making a fool of yourself there is no 90L just an AOI that will become 91L AS THE NEXT TAGGED INVEST
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254. IKE
Quoting stillwaiting:
ike my local pressures have been steadly dropping the last 72hrs here in sarasota,fl around 1011mb right now,we where around 1018-1019mb last wed/thurs,the ridge is weaking and this could be a sign of things to come(troughs along the east coast??)...



SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO
NEAR 23N88W WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSISTING ALONG AND TO THE
W. THE S PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT W AND DETACH
FROM THE N PART AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR W CARIB MOVES
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF
SUN EVENING AND NIGHT. THE N PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW
AND WEAKEN SUN THROUGH MON AS A RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting btwntx08:
maybe they will just reactivate it as 90L again
Once an invest is deactivated it won't be reactivated. The next one is 91L...
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252. xcool
btwntx08 HEY WHAT HAPPEN TO YOU LAST NIGHT
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:
invest 90L LOOKING BETTER


Yup. 40-50% in next TWO.
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248. xcool
Filibuster GO WAY."Please Don't Talk TO ME .
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245. xcool


POOF
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Quoting Bordonaro:

BBL, taking my 4 yr old grand daughter into the 15' x 42" above ground pool, in the backyard, that's a cool 92F, to cool off!!! Along with a quart of ice water!!


Wow you are a braver soul than I.

Please be sure to consider at least some SPF 30 or adequate shade. I can't let mine go out until late afternoon or early evening. (It's dangerous out there right now, hence the heat advisories...)
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Check out these GOM water temps.

Blackwater Sound, FL 87.8
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Little Blackwater, FL 89.4
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Long Sound, FL 89.6
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Highway Creek, FL 91.8
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Duck Key, FL 88.5
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Trout Cove, FL 90.0
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Butternut Key, FL 89.2
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Little Madeira, FL 89.6
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Taylor River, FL 89.2
(07/31/2010 17:00 UTC)
Bob Allen, FL 88.2
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Whipray Basin, FL 90.3
(07/31/2010 17:00 UTC)
Garfield Bight, FL 89.6
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Peterson Key, FL 89.6
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Little Rabbit Key, FL 89.6
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Johnson Key, FL 90.1
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Murray Key, FL 89.6
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Tarpon Bay East, FL 88.7
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Cane Patch, FL 87.3
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Gunboat Island, FL 87.8
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Broad River Lower, FL 89.1
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Lostmans River, FL 90.0
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Willy Willy, FL 89.1
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Cannon Bay, FL 90.5
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Watson Place, FL 91.4
(07/31/2010 17:00 UTC)
Broad River, FL 88.9
(07/31/2010 15:00 UTC)
Key West FL 89.1

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Last time I went to Bush Gardens in the Summer with the Family (about 5 years ago), I stayed in the "live" show in the air conditioned theatre (saw the show about 3 times), then hit the beer garden..........
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Snowlover: Where do you live? Do you get enough snow?


I live in the Mid-Atlantic. I was more than satisfied this year for snow. My Winter Forecast indicates much less snow for us next year, but more snow than normal overall. Also colder for the Northeast as well.
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Quoting IKE:
Ivanhater...I'd wishcast a 1006mb low right now with it baking like an oven outside.

Here's my pressure now...Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)


I hear that Ike...currently 99 at the P'cola airport
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236. xcool
JFV Mind YOU Buizness
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ike my local pressures have been steadly dropping the last 72hrs here in sarasota,fl around 1011mb right now,we where around 1018-1019mb last wed/thurs,the ridge is weaking and this could be a sign of things to come(troughs along the east coast??)...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
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Wondering if they'll just reactivate 90L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Snowlover: Where do you live? Do you get enough snow?
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228. xcool
Snowlover123 .OOO
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Quoting xcool:
Snowlover123 HUH


I love your commentary! :)
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Does anybody get a feeling about a "super" hurricane forming with all this heat around the globe?
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222. IKE
Make that.... 101.0 °F
Clear
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
221. xcool
Snowlover123 HUH
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xcool, are you here? I always enjoy your expert wishcasting. :D
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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