Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800
The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.
A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.
Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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morning Becca! :)
LOL.
System appears to be moving slowly just north of west to me.
North of Tampa by about 45 minutes.
I figured it was coming.
Go Rays. Win the series!
Should pick up some speed in the next 48 hours. Maybe it'll fizzle out and defy all of the models. Seems unlikely though + it's August now.
Finally got her designated huh? Its gonna be a long week.
How's everyone feeling?
East of you. Howdy neighbor!
Dry air probably won't be a problem.
Yup.
morning sir, Looking forward to your synopsis (as always)!!
I guess they didn't hit refresh on their computer.
I am more tired this morning than I was last night LOL. Hopefully my golf game won't suffer too much today !.
I just took a look at the medium term steering forecasts ( 48 to 72 hrs out ) and those all show the Azores high centered well off to the NE with a weakness off the US SE coast between the W flank of the high and another high over the Southern CONUS.
This is what the models are latching onto to allow 91L to make that WNW move until being forced more on a flatter track just N of Cuba.
The problem with all of this is that a slow mover like 91L can hang around far South long enough for the upper air dynamics to shift dramatically in any direction.
I'm noticing that 91L has so much moisture around it, Dry Air will moisten up by the time it gets to 91L.
TWC = The Worthless Channel
Jet lag is always worse the next day. It sometimes takes me a few days to recover. I think your golf game is going to be a disappointment...lol
Hey Kman!
I was just asking everyone yesterday where you have been. I see you been out of the country. Hope you enjoyed, and drink an energy drink maybe that will help with your golf game? haha.
I prefer to see the discussions on the models myself. Those who wish to talk about them, please feel free.
Yup. Anything can happen with a storm that's only moving about 5-10mph.
Take the cart. Play nine holes. ;)
I get a kick out of their "local on the 8's", 10 second intro, into the local weather....at :23 after the hour!!!!! WTH?
Good Morning Senior Chief...
Need me to make a coffee run for you?
I hope not, we play for a dollar or two LOL
I think we have a hurricane in the makings
Good morning Storm, We look forward to it!
Hi there. I was off the blog for about 3 weeks on vacation and really enjoyed the break from work. First vacation in a year which is not good but some years are like that. Better busy than the alternative !.
August 1st is here and 91L with it right on cue. Just a watch and wait for now though.
I don't see any ULL's around.
3 week vacation..nice! Welcome back.
Blog For Puerto Rico and N.island residentsLink
Have to wait and see... Patiently (well not really) waiting for the experts synopsis on the forming storm.
Morning Ho77yw00d!
ECMWF on 8-9...
Actually two weeks. Hit the wrong key LOL. Maybe wishful thinking was at work there !
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