Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:
Atlantic Floater 1 INVEST 90L IS STILL ON NHC PAGE..THERE NEVER TAKE IT DOWN...





Should I just take your screen name and add X's to the end about twenty times and put them in my ignore list, so that I don't have to keep clicking on the button every time you change your name? Dude you need to stop, your "Walt Disney Casting" is getting old. Listen to the experts and you might learn something. Donald, Mickey and Goofy are wondering why you're not at work today
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319. xcool
if any problems WHAT ME EMAIL ME LIKE MAN.DNOT START drama ON THIS BLOG .THANKS.BACK tropical weather,
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Quoting Filibuster:
you are very bold for defying the NHC's stance that way, NYHurricane. But im curious, what's your defense for this, does 90l not impress you enough? TIA, :).


Yes. That is exactly right. ;)
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Hey Miami, you know how when there is a new blog by Dr. Masters or something, you post NEW BLOG in huge letters? How do you do that, and how can I do it for my blog entries?
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316. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Figure what out, IKE? LOL! (j/k)


Yeah....what? LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Can't the Admin just ban his IP?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Kerry Emmanuel of MIT wrote about the maximum potential intensity deepening to below 800 mb by the end of the century. He is very very smart and informed about tropical cyclone physics. It's hard for me to see that really happening however. But who knows?

If we really do get hurricanes with central pressures in the high 700 mb range I want scarier names!

Hurricane Cobra
Hurricane Sabretooth

Things like that.


http://www.pakmet.com.pk/FFD/cp/floodpage0.asp

Thanks. I'm checking this link for gauges.
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Quoting AllStar17:
The structure of our disturbance continues to improve.


Looks about right.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627
Have Nice Day Folks and Stay Cool.....See everyone tommorow........WW
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In addition, I have a weird feeling that South Carolina and Georgia need to keep an especially close eye on this system. This is primarily based on model runs of track and its movement so far. It might not move too far North or South at this rate.

Also...


Quoting IKE:
You would think someone that has had at least 20 different user names and hundreds of posts deleted by admin would figure it out?


I believe they have figured it out. JFV is most likely accessing the blog from FIU, and admin wouldn't permaban FIU's IP.
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Cool stuff. On page 5608:

Meteorological charts displaying Earth-relative streamlines are a standard tool in the forecasting industry, but generally provide a misleading picture of actual flow kinematics, or Lagrangian displacement of air, in propagating tropical waves. These maps typically display an upright omega pattern in the lower troposphere straddling the wave’s trough axis. In fact the omega pattern is often upside-down in the translating frame, with separatrix orientation to the north. In other cases, the separatrix is oriented to the east or west (or both). To the extent that horizontal advection explains the topology of streamlines, and therefore indicates where air in the closed gyre has detached from, it is firmly established in our 55 cases that air at 600 hPa is not derived from or being exchanged (by resolvable motions) with distant points to the south. For the most part, this is also true at 850 hPa. Rather, it is coming from (or previously associated with) air to the east, north or west of the gyre center. This result is probably the most important take-home message for operational purposes and weather briefings.
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The structure of our disturbance continues to improve.
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon, alaina!

Afternoon Storm!
Im ready to track something!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
305. JLPR2
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


At this point I think they are waiting untill there is a specific area to designate. Right now it is difficult to pinpoint. They may reactivate, they may designate a new number.


Yup, the disturbance is all around the place.
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I've seen them reactive invests a bunch of times.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627
Gone for now. Be back L8R after the Filibuster gets fully busted.

(Perhaps it's not too hot for Bourbon after all.)
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299. IKE
WOW! At the airport in Marianna,FL....thank goodness it's mostly cloudy!

Marianna, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 4 min 25 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
105 °F

Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 31%
Dew Point: 69 °F
Wind: 6 mph Variable
Pressure: 29.76 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 113 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Pollen: 3.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 108 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, if the circulation is the same they reactivate them.
I believe 90l's circulation has remained separate from the TW, no?


At this point I think they are waiting untill there is a specific area to designate. Right now it is difficult to pinpoint. They may reactivate, they may designate a new number.
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repost from last blog

WOW GUYS ORANGE ALERT 30% WOW WOW WOW Sorry about this I just came back from town

and MH09 I have see them reactivate invest before this should not be any different
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Link
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294. IKE
You would think someone that has had at least 20 different user names and hundreds of posts deleted by admin would figure it out?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858



This is just North of Beaumont Texas....
Updated: 2:53 PM CDT on July 31, 2010
Clear
103.9 °F
Clear
Humidity: 44%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 29.82 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 123 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 11 out of 16
Pollen: 3.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon all.

I would like to comment on the NHC's 30% chance on what was 90L and say that I do not agree with it. Right now, I'd say the chance of this becoming a tropical system within 48 hours lies between 10% and 20%. We need to get some real activity going, as in, what I am referring to as the "digestive process" must end and some organized convection must form. I will go as far as saying the chances of this forming within 4 days, however, are medium-high.

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291. xcool
BYE JFV 280. Filibuster
This comment has been removed for violating the
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


When it comes to invests there a few "rules". Seen the renumber for al03, the deactivate for al02?
No I have not.
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287. xcool
increased convection :)
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Quoting Filibuster:
You've been ignored, reported, and flagged, scott guillet.


Go away JFV
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh, well, not me. Guess it could be reactivated then.


When it comes to invests there are few "rules". Seen the renumber for al03, the deactivate for al02?
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Also, see latest NWS Discussion from San Juan :


FORECAST FROM LATE THU THROUGH SAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 30W. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY NHC FOR POTENTIAL TC DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING SOME TYPE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS WAVE WITH TRACKS CLOSE TO THE FCST AREA
AROUND THE THU NIGHT-FRI TIME FRAME. REFER TO TROPICAL WX OUTLOOK
FOR MORE DETAILS.
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282. JLPR2
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes


Yeah, if the circulation is the same they reactivate them.
I believe 90l's circulation has remained separate from the TW, no?
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I am theorizing that if enough
flags are given to a comment

which violates the Community standard below:

WunderBlogs - Standards
Rules of the Road

5. Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.


Then the comment gets automatically removed for violating community standards.

Thus empowering users, and giving Admin a break from constantly dealing with Janiel.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes
Oh, well, not me. Guess it could be reactivated then.
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278. xcool
9N.34.4 LLC
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I've never seen them reactivate an invest, have you?


Yes
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Kerry Emmanuel of MIT wrote about the maximum potential intensity deepening to below 800 mb by the end of the century. He is very very smart and informed about tropical cyclone physics. It's hard for me to see that really happening however. But who knows?

If we really do get hurricanes with central pressures in the high 700 mb range I want scarier names!

Hurricane Cobra
Hurricane Sabretooth

Things like that.


Geez that would be insane. You'd hear t.v. news men saying "run from the water, run from the wind- run for your lives!" Winds would probably be EF4-EF5 range- imagine that for an hour. no aircraft recon, no structures standing. Makes my stomach drop.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


There's already been a LloydBensten, with his pic. Which is pretty creepy, since he's dead.

HouseSpeaker?


Oh I have it. MajorityWhip!


LOL. Maybe his next handle will enter a completely new phase, like the political terms and television stations of S Fl. I'm placing bets on shortcrust pastries :)
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VIS Loops seem to be showing an organizing system : check out 9N 33W.
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271. IKE
Quoting Ivanhater:


I hear that Ike...currently 99 at the P'cola airport


Some like it hot, but this is awful. I feel for anyone without an AC....

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Clear
101.5 °F

Clear
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Pressure: 29.76 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 121 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Where is the rule listed?
I've never seen them reactivate an invest, have you?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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