Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Is the latest floater on orange30 the definition of embedded moistrure or what?
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my eprsonal life is something entirely seperate.


entirely:

1. Imaginary
2. Non-existant
3.
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Use this link to visit the CIMSS Water Animation for the latest view and to view the archive as well.

Kinda makes you wonder just what is happening with the weather this year.


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364. xcool
weatherman12345 .I THINK jmo
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I have it up and am looking around, yes. Thanks for finding that! When I did a search for river gauge, it came up zero. Flood gauge must have been the way to go.



It took me awhile. I almost missed your reply on super hurricanes.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


You're trying to scare me!
me too...here in SC
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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
In addition, I have a weird feeling that South Carolina and Georgia need to keep an especially close eye on this system. This is primarily based on model runs of track and its movement so far. It might not move too far North or South at this rate.

Also...




I believe they have figured it out. JFV is most likely accessing the blog from FIU, and admin wouldn't permaban FIU's IP.


There's quite a few of WUbloggers from FIU too, who DON'T abuse the blog and such.
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357. xcool
IN JUST ABOUT 24HR -TD
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Quoting btwntx08:

filibuster


filibusted...
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Quoting caneswatch:


99 with a heat index of..........99 lol. Humidity is 27%, that's why.


lol. 99 with a heat index of 114 here. Stupid georgia humidity.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Kerry Emmanuel of MIT wrote about the maximum potential intensity deepening to below 800 mb by the end of the century. He is very very smart and informed about tropical cyclone physics. It's hard for me to see that really happening however. But who knows?

If we really do get hurricanes with central pressures in the high 700 mb range I want scarier names!

Hurricane Cobra
Hurricane Sabretooth

Things like that.


STSimons: Have you been on pakmet for flood information? lahore ffd
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Jeepers Creepers! Looks like a landcane over Africa.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
My IP changes every time I turn the computer off and turn it on again. I think everyone with a high speed connection does that.

The only way to block would be to block a network node. That would block everyone in the area.

And no way wunderground will block a university. Especially one with a met program.

So JFV will be with us till he is in a nursing home.
just signed back on what is JFV user name to ignore him
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Im ready to track something!


I'm hunting wabbits!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm at 99F right now, Heat Index of 104F


99 with a heat index of..........99 lol. Humidity is 27%, that's why.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
My IP changes every time I turn the computer off and turn it on again. I think everyone with a high speed connection does that.

The only way to block would be to block a network node. That would block everyone in the area.

And no way wunderground will block a university. Especially one with a met program.

So JFV will be with us till he is in a nursing home.


Or until he falls off a cliff "accidentally" J/K.. wouldn't even wish that on him
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OLR past 3 days.
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Quoting StormW:


Ouch! I'm at 94F right now, Heat Index of 109F


I'm at 99F right now, Heat Index of 104F
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341. xcool


BIG BIG
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339. JLPR2
Quoting StormW:


Look at that, a little green circle with our disturbance.
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338. xcool



850-5,000 feet

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Quoting BenBIogger:
Can't the Admin just ban his IP?


You cant IP ban someone here.
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River Indus at Kalabagh & Chashma is in Exceptionally High Flood, River Jhelum at Rasul is in Very High Flood. River Kabul at Nowshera, River Jhelum at Mangla are in High Flood, River Indus at Tarbela & Taunsa are in Medium Flood. River Indus at Guddu & Sukkur and River Chenab at Marala are in Low Flood.
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334. xcool
btwntx08 LOL
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Quoting StormW:


Never too hot for Bourbon! (Or Brandy and Scotch for that matter)


Storm, Normally I would agree but we're on the high side of a 110F heat index with triple digit temps predicted for tomorrow. I'm glad I cut the grass last night, because it's actually dangerous out there right now. (The Pool water hit a new record high of 93F today and is still climbing!)

Aw heck why not. The A/C is still working just fine. Perhaps a capt. & cola.

Seriously I gotta go, I've got some things to do. Be back L8R if something starts to develop further.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


you can change your IP every day if you want to


I didn't know that....

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imo if 90L becomes TD4, the earliest is Tuesday PM.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
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326. IKE
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
In addition, I have a weird feeling that South Carolina and Georgia need to keep an especially close eye on this system. This is primarily based on model runs of track and its movement so far. It might not move too far North or South at this rate.

Also...




I believe they have figured it out. JFV is most likely accessing the blog from FIU, and admin wouldn't permaban FIU's IP.


I hadn't thought about that. I never would have thought about that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CaribBoy:
VIS Loops seem to be showing an organizing system : check out 9N 33W.

That is where I am seeing the center developing.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


"The pressure is down to 612 millibars and the wind is up to 515 kts! If the wind velocity gets higher than the central pressure, the atmospheric reaction will keep the storm strengthening FOREVER! It will be like the Great Red Spot! We'll never be rid of it!"



ROTFL wow I think I'm going to have to download that movie and start using that phrase. But it would be interesting/frightning to see even though I wouldn't want to. The storm surge would be tsunami like. It's just incomprehensable.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting BenBIogger:
Can't the Admin just ban his IP?


you can change your IP address every day if you want to
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:
Atlantic Floater 1 INVEST 90L IS STILL ON NHC PAGE..THERE NEVER TAKE IT DOWN...





Should I just take your screen name and add X's to the end about twenty times and put them in my ignore list, so that I don't have to keep clicking on the button every time you change your name? Dude you need to stop, your "Walt Disney Casting" is getting old. Listen to the experts and you might learn something. Donald, Mickey and Goofy are wondering why you're not at work today
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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