Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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#417


That would be "97E"..as thats the EASTERN Pacific ..


Womp,wahhhhhh
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419. xcool
getting more active in tropical.
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Heat Advisory

Statement as of 2:37 PM CDT on July 31, 2010

... Heat advisory remains in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening...
... Heat advisory in effect from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a heat
advisory... which is in effect from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday. A
heat advisory remains in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening.

Temperatures have topped out in the upper 90s to around 100
today... as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains anchored
across the region. These hot temperatures... combined with high
humidity levels... have resulted in heat index values near 110
degrees this afternoon. The greatest threat for heat related
illnesses will be during the mid to late afternoon hours. The warm
and moist airmass will remain across the region through the
weekend... with high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100
degrees on Sunday. As a result... and heat index values will near
110 degrees once again Sunday afternoon.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible.
Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned room... stay
out of the sun... and check on relatives and neighbors.
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did I miss something wile I was on vacation? did i miss 99L or do they skip over that?
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413. xcool
NASA101 .?
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Quoting xcool:
\\\C
Quoting xcool:


Xcool: What does the graph on the left represent - it has a peak at 8N...!? Please explain, thx
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It's scorching hot here too.
Updated: 11 min 7 sec ago
Clear
100.5 °F
Clear
Humidity: 48%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 118 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 180 ft

Gulf of mexico near the northern coast is turning into boiling water. Touching into the 90's.
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409. xcool
LMAO.
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Quoting alaina1085:
#397

ROFLMAO!! Oh yes best post of the day.


Boo!!!
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#397

ROFLMAO!! Oh yes best post of the day.
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405. xcool
HurricaneSwirl . slowl GET better organized
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404. unf97
Good afternoon everyone.

Just got really dumped on by some very heavy thunderstorms which rolled through the Jax metro area during the past couple of hours. Just measured 2.25 inches of rainfall at my north Jax location. This is the heaviest rainfall I have received in nearly two months. This rain was a huge welcomed relief for my lawn and from this miserable heat wave we have been enduring for much of July, let alone this week. I recorded a max temp on my thermometer yesterday of 103.2 degrees, the hottest by far this year to this point. Thankfully today, the max topped out at 95.4 before the thunderstorms rolled through.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:


UNWANTED POST!!!
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


lol. 99 with a heat index of 114 here. Stupid georgia humidity.

Yes i'm with you 99 heat index 116 hum 52% Zephyrhills Fl.
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400. xcool
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 31, 2010 3:16 pm ET
The tropics remain void of any active tropical cyclones across the globe.

In the Atlantic, there are 2 areas that are being monitored, but neither is expected to organize and develop into a tropical system over the weekend. One is a tropical wave that is located in the south-central Caribbean which is producing diminished and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It should move into Central America without developing. Meanwhile, the other area is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and a trough of low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic. Some slow development is likely within this increasingly active but still disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.

In the Eastern Pacific, low pressure south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Any development will be slow to occur
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Got a feeling all hell is going break loose in the Atlantic soon, too much energy has to burn off some how!
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sat24 on Africa:

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Quoting xcool:




convection increasing during DMIN.
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Blog Update!

Tropical Weather Analysis - July 31 2010 - Caribbean Tropical Wave and Ex-Invest 90L...

Comments are greatly appreciated!
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393. xcool
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Time for a curtain call?
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390. xcool


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389. JLPR2
Quoting StormW:
Looks like a LLC trying to develop near 9.0N;34.9W on close up visible loop.


Yep, I see an elongated NE to SW circulation, but it does seem to be consolidating there, looks like we are in for an interesting D-max.
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Atlantic Low Cloud Product
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Funny, orange circle, yet no formal/official numbered invest tagged! Is it that one or this one?Which will it be? Not sure, me neither!!!
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Quoting stormhank:
Hi ...when would the area in eastern atlantic that NHC has 30% on be re delcared???


When the powers that be feel like monitoring it and analyzing data.
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384. xcool
StormW .yea .
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Hi ...when would the area in eastern atlantic that NHC has 30% on be re delcared???
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Quoting StormW:


I see a hint of green over our cape verde wave!
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Quoting Filibuster:


nope, keep on trying, you are further away then 90L is right now, LMAO.


Well, at least you confessed to being JFV.

My second guess is you're using a proxy server.

Also -


If the blob that is actually over Africa holds together, I don't want to even consider the possibilities.
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Quoting StormW:
Looks like a LLC trying to develop near 9.0N;34.9W on close up visible loop.


Agreed Sir!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
my eprsonal life is something entirely seperate.


entirely:

1. Imaginary
2. Non-exsistant
3.

LOLS
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372. JLPR2
D-min and convection continues to pop



Maybe it wants to get going
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371. xcool
lolol
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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