Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting texwarhawk:

every hour
Link
Great link..thanks.
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Port Charlotte was 98 degrees at 2PM...114 heat index..winds under 5 mph...Just plain miserable, oppresive west coast Florida soupy heat...
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468. xcool



Lower Convergence WOW.UPDATE.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I can believe it unf97. It is sickeningly humid here. 79 dewpoint last couple hours.

A stiff east wind of 16 mph gusting into the 20s that brings no relief. If only we had something to trigger a storm here!



The hottest so far around here was actually a couple days ago. Now we have a wind off the water so its not as bad, however the worst was 2 days ago when we topped at 99 with a 121 heat index!!!

Dewpoint has been between 77 and 82 degrees here for a very long time now.



What I can't understand is, how is there significant thunderstorm activity in the rockies, when the freezing level is at 16000 ft, the capes are a lame 500 to 100 J/KG, and PWATS are arund 1.00 to 1.25? That's like a dry winter time air mass for us, yet somehow they are squeezing out big thunderstorms there.


Yet here in central Florida we have a PWAT of about 2.25, a CAPE around 4000 to 5000 J/KG and a freezing level about the same. Yet we aren't getting any thunderstorms !!!! I just don't get it, I know we have an upper high over us, but just a couple days back ,we were getting hammered with torrential rains and severe weather in the same dang air mass!!!

There is just so much about weather that makes my brain wanna explode sometimes lol
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Quoting Filibuster:
navy just updated 91 is coming, y'all. pattyw as right.



NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Sat 31 Jul 2010 20:15:01Z

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
NONE
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
Central Pacific
92C.INVEST
West Pacific
95W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting muddertracker:
How often does the vorticity map update?

every hour
Link
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting muddertracker:
How often does the vorticity map update?

Every 3 hours or so.
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360,000 square miles of cloudiness in the ITCZ in one area(orange 30). alaska=586,000 square miles
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How often does the vorticity map update?
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Filibuster every comment you make has been removed soon you will yet again be removed
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I'm BACK!! seems I sure missed a lot...whoa
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm pretty surprised they haven't declared 91L or reactivated 90L.



In due time ,,we may get 91L..



90L wont be designated till next time round.
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AL, 99, 2010072418, , BEST, 0, 210N, 974W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072500, , BEST, 0, 210N, 974W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072506, , BEST, 0, 211N, 977W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2010072512, , BEST, 0, 211N, 980W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 99, 2010072518, , BEST, 0, 212N, 983W, 20, 1013, DB,

just for you BaltOCane
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By Robert Schroeder WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Companies that drill for oil in U.S. waters would be required to pay 100% of spill-related damages under a bill approved Friday in the House of Representatives. Written in response to the BP /quotes/comstock/13*!bp/quotes/nls/bp (BP 38.47, 0.00, 0.00%) oil spill, the bill removes a $75 million liability cap now in place; requires independent certification of equipment and sets up other new offshore-drilling standards; and creates new agencies to oversee the industry. The bill would need to be merged with a Senate version for it to become law, a process that at the minimum can't be completed until the House returns from a recess in September

I would add one more part to this - double or triple fines from current levels. A big deterrent will probably do more good than more regulation.


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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I agree. 30% I see almost no possibility of development tomorrow, with increasing probabilities from Monday on.


Yep, sounds about right.
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Quoting Patrap:
Atlantic

East Pacific
green ball icon97E.INVEST

Central Pacific
green ball icon92C.INVEST

West Pacific
green ball icon95W.INVEST


No Green Ball in the Atlantic folks.

sowwy.

Womp,wahhhhhhhh


I'm pretty surprised they haven't declared 91L or reactivated 90L.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Link


thanks!
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Atlantic

East Pacific
green ball icon97E.INVEST

Central Pacific
green ball icon92C.INVEST

West Pacific
green ball icon95W.INVEST


No Green Ball in the Atlantic folks.

sowwy.

Womp,wahhhhhhhh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


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Quoting BaltOCane:


thanks!

anybody have the coordinance from that thing so I can update my map?? :) Thanks!


Link
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Storm, have you heard from Kman? I havent seen him post in a while.
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There is no "90L" as it was deactivated.

The floater stays on the last till a new is designated.


Note the NRL Page
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Eh, convective wise 90L looks good but it doesn't have any real structure. Looks like a LLC might be forming. Suspect they will hold at 30% at 8 pm or possibly 40%.

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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Sat 31 Jul 2010 20:45:01Z


2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
NONE
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
Central Pacific
92C.INVEST
West Pacific
95W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


sufferin' succotash! holy bat clouds!
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Quoting btwntx08:
99L developed overland in mexico last week lol it wasnt called for
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


99L was designated inland over Mexico. Yes, really. And is now no more.


thanks!

anybody have the coordinance from that thing so I can update my map?? :) Thanks!
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AOI/XX/XL
MARK
7.9N/35.3W
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425. xcool
LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
All NOAA Floater Imagery
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Boo!!!

You would have to post a strawberry shortcake shower curtain pic to top that... sorry ;)
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421. unf97
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I can believe it unf97. It is sickeningly humid here. 79 dewpoint last couple hours.

A stiff east wind of 16 mph gusting into the 20s that brings no relief. If only we had something to trigger a storm here!


Yeah, today we finally got the much needed rain here in Jax. But, SSIGuy, the heat has been just absolutely brutal. Jax International NWS office set a record temp yesterday of 102 degrees. I actually recorded 103.2 on my home thermometer yesterday. Just brutal!
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#417


That would be "97E"..as thats the EASTERN Pacific ..


Womp,wahhhhhh
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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