Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Filibuster:


orca, post the plots as well, plz?

Plots of what?
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519. unf97
Quoting pvbeachbum:


Hi Unf -

I watched those storms on radar and prayed for some of it to get to the beaches - but no such luck...I've been hearing thunder all afternoon, and only getting an occasional misting. My area in PV Beach is still dry as a bone and turning into a desert!


Yeah, the beaches have been bone dry. Hopefully, tomorrow the beaches will get some rain as a strong shortwave axix is forecast to rotate through North FL.
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517. xcool
reedzone you meaning 91L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
What a waste of a de-acvtivation, 90L tagged once again tonight if organization continues.. Notice the GFS and EURO back on board. GFS hinting at a East Coast storm, EURO showing GOM storm. Models are back and 90L is coming back tonight!
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Quoting deautschlandfutbol:
Hey alaina. Did u get my email? I'm with ya on storms I'm ready to track them. Hey storm good buddy its funny how I was asking ya last night if u r sure that it will still be busy and all my questions got answered today. The mjo is moving towards our octants, the nao is neg from what that a/b ridge set in place just east of jax and looks like the soi is up too. Funny how mother nature works. Looks like u were right storm. I'm ready bring it on.

I just read it! Welcome to the blog. Lots of good people here all with the same passion. Some are very experienced and then there are those like me who are learning.
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Quoting StormW:


I'm doing better! Thanks for asking. How's your evening so far?


It is ok I am just relaxing. Thinking about what I want for dinner but other then that not much going on... same ole same ole
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Still learning. Is that good or bad for development and why?

doesnt mean much at all considering that is the ITCZ
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting unf97:
Good afternoon everyone.

Just got really dumped on by some very heavy thunderstorms which rolled through the Jax metro area during the past couple of hours. Just measured 2.25 inches of rainfall at my north Jax location. This is the heaviest rainfall I have received in nearly two months. This rain was a huge welcomed relief for my lawn and from this miserable heat wave we have been enduring for much of July, let alone this week. I recorded a max temp on my thermometer yesterday of 103.2 degrees, the hottest by far this year to this point. Thankfully today, the max topped out at 95.4 before the thunderstorms rolled through.


Hi Unf -

I watched those storms on radar and prayed for some of it to get to the beaches - but no such luck...I've been hearing thunder all afternoon, and only getting an occasional misting. My area in PV Beach is still dry as a bone and turning into a desert!
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How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links

On the right side of this page under recommenced Links

Or this way--------->
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:
we say goodbye to invest 97W


For the millionth time, it is 97E for Eastern Pacific.

Also, please stop posting the words beside the images, post them below.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey alaina. Did u get my email? I'm with ya on storms I'm ready to track them. Hey storm good buddy its funny how I was asking ya last night if u r sure that it will still be busy and all my questions got answered today. The mjo is moving towards our octants, the nao is neg from what that a/b ridge set in place just east of jax and looks like the soi is up too. Funny how mother nature works. Looks like u were right storm. I'm ready bring it on.
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501. xcool
lol pat.357gun
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting muddertracker:
Everybody say hello to our new blog admin!


He ain't playing around today! I love it!


Make my BLOG!
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How do you make loops and post them on the blog?
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.."Go ahead Poster,,Make my Day"..
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Quoting BaltOCane:


thanks!


NP. If you ever need any more here is the ATCF site where we get them from: Link

For example 90L's coordinates and intensity for every 6 hours would be under the file "invest_al902010.invest". That site is also where we get the renumberings of invests to tropical depressions, and how we know if an invest is activated or deactivated.

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Quoting StormW:


No, I haven't. Yeah, he hasn't posted in a while!

Wonder whats going on with him. Hope hes well.
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489. xcool
F4PHANTOM good.


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
9N 33W
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La-de-dah..

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Hello Storm: 360,000 square miles of clouds in one section of the ITCZ. The ITCZ is manufacturing air conditioning equipment.
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Hundreds of people have died in northwestern Pakistan after floods triggered by monsoon rains swept through the region.

More than a million people have been affected and thousands forced to flee their homes as bloated rivers washed away villages and triggered devastating landslides.

Rescue operations are underway to save the stranded, but submerged roads and destroyed infrastructure are proving to be major obstacles.

Al Jazeera's Sohail Rahman reports from Islamabad, Pakistan's capital.
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Quoting StormW:


Hello!


hey, how are you? I read the other post so I wont dare ask about Bush Gardens but hope you are having a better evening :)
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Quoting StormW:


Hello!


Storm, would you say our disturbance is getting better organized?
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At least 105 so far today in Marianna FL. Anything hotter out there? Nearing the ALL TIME Florida record of 109 in Monticello.
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the itcz is tired of the heat! lots of clouds!
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Comparisons between the same ordinal dates in 2005 and 2010
30July2005

30July2010

30July2005

30July2010

30July2005

30July2010
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Quoting texwarhawk:

every hour
Link
Great link..thanks.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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