Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:
Well this is the .44 Magnum automag, and it holds a 300 grain cartridge, and if properly used, it can REMOVE the SAL.




i would re move that if i where you dont want too loss you overe a 24hr banned
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569. xcool
StormW lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting Patrap:
There is NO 90L..

..just Bloggers confusing the Masses seems.


Is it hot here or what?? I wont even go swimming in this heat.
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So what did u think of my email alaina?
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1008mb low back on the map.
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Quoting unf97:


Yeah, the beaches have been bone dry. Hopefully, tomorrow the beaches will get some rain as a strong shortwave axix is forecast to rotate through North FL.


That sounds good to me! Never thought we would be happy about a rainy day - but my landscaping and lawn (what's left of it) can really use it!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't quote him or it might end up that you get banned along with him. He is a constant troll. Just a little heads up since you have not been on here too long.


OH thanks for the heads up!! I just think this blog is awsome and for people like that to come in and make it like a joke gets under my skin but THANKS again;)
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There is NO 90L..

..just Bloggers confusing the Masses seems.

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559. xcool
Will be interesting at 8pm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting KanKunKid:
Just because I am now living in Mexico doesnt mean Im Mexican. I'm American! I have an American credit card.

Man, 2 years ago I got banned for writing ___ [donkey] caster. You would think I farted in the elevator or something.

Fine. Wait till you need confirmation of something here in the Yucatan.

I will not clutter the blog with my drivel any longer, I'm history.

Good bye cruel world (or at least cruel blog).

After all, you got StormW, who needs another blogger?
?????????What are you talking about ? I don't think anyone said anything about you.
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If that Blob just east of the N. Bahamas hangs around another 24 hrs. it may allow that high to build over it, might be a little wrinkle in the old forecast. As hot as its been seems odd to have a front drift that far south.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:



????? WHO YOU ?????
Don't quote him or it might end up that you get banned along with him. He is a constant troll. Just a little heads up since you have not been on here too long.
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cant wait for the new two
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Quoting Filibuster:
:0


:0 to you too, NU.
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Quoting deautschlandfutbol:
Thanks alaina! Yeah I love this blog its my fav.

I like I love

Yea its pretty groovy ;) Until the trolls take over!
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Thanks alaina! Yeah I love this blog its my fav.

I like I love
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Quoting Orcasystems:


The last run before it was deactivated was 1800Z yesterday... its gone poof


Not for long, hahahah
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545. xcool
reedzone .okay kool :)))
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting xcool:
hey taz



hi x cool
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Quoting btwntx08:
Please tell me the euro is really bad on track.
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Look as though the at least the 12 gfs and euro do develop a storm out of that mess and both on a similar track westward toward N Antilies Have to watch and see if the euro stays consistent. The GFS has been fairly consistent with development and track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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540. xcool
hey taz
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
In pushing the climate so hard and so fast, we are also conscious of our own collective ignorance of how the climate system works. Perhaps negative-feedback mechanisms that we have not contemplated or have underestimated will kick in, sparing us from debilitating consequences. On the other hand, the same could be said of positive feedbacks, and matters might turn out worse than projected. The ice-core record reveals a climate that reacts in complex and surprising ways to smoothly and slowly changing radiative forcing caused by variations in the earth’s orbit. Far from changing smoothly, it remains close to one state for a long time and then suddenly jumps to another state. We do not understand this, and are worried that a sudden climate jump may be part of our future.
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looks like the Admin are watching the blogs today
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Quoting xcool:
reedzone you meaning 91L


Maybe, I just watched Levis video and I can see how 91L would be likely because the old circulation of 90L did in fact die out. Still, models are back on development and the system is becoming more organized with banding features and convection. Needs to be closely monitored, either 90L or 91L will be declared sometime today, 95% confident on that!
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Levi: 360,000 square miles of clouds in the ITCZ. Alaska has about 586,412.
Basic theory and models show another consequential result of a few degrees of warming. The amount of water vapor in the air rises exponentially with temperature: a seven-degree increase in temperature increases water vapor by 25 percent. One might at first suppose that since the amount of water ascending into clouds increases, the amount of rain that falls out of them must increase in proportion. But condensing water vapor heats the atmosphere, and in the grand scheme of things, this must be compensated by radiative heat loss. On the other hand, simple calculations show that the amount of radiative heat loss increases only very slowly with temperature, so that the total heating by condensation must increase slowly as well. Models resolve this conundrum by making it rain harder in places that are already wet and at the same time increasing the intensity, duration, or geographical extent of droughts. Thus, the twin perils of flood and drought actually both increase substantially in a warmer world.

It is particularly sobering to contemplate such outcomes in light of the evidence that smaller, natural climate swings since the end of the last ice age debilitated and in some cases destroyed entire civilizations in such places as Mesopotamia, Central and South America, and the southwestern region of what is today the United States. Hello
SouthAlWx..
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Quoting Filibuster:
Orca the models for 90? Anyhow, who's up for a GW discussion? takers?


WOW DUDE... GET A LIFE!
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530. xcool
HAHA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting Filibuster:
Orca the models for 90? Anyhow, who's up for a GW discussion? takers?


The last run before it was deactivated was 1800Z yesterday... its gone poof
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Hot?

I bought a cheap solar oven to teach the kids how you can cook w/o electricity. Today I BURNED (ok not really burned but defiantly well done)a chicken in it with the vent wide open!
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What is off Fla. East coast. That might bring some rain if it moves west. It's been out there for two days
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Can someone please post the EURO model?
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522. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting Grothar:
Wuzup Gro? wer ya bin..:)
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Quoting Filibuster:


orca, post the plots as well, plz?

Plots of what?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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