Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2820. breald
Quoting IKE:
CrownWeather take on 91L.


So, he seems to think the ridge will not draw the hurricane to the east coast but keep it down towards the keys and eventually into the Gulf?
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Looking at images, it seems baby feeder bands are trying to form.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5694
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Click on your pic. It should show a screen with just that pic. Under that it will say modify my photo. Click that then you can check portrait on next screen.

i did that but i dont see portrait
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2817. KBH
Morning all, Orca, is that model run correct, looks like?, looks like it will be a sling shot when it begins to move north.Seems too far south to be going that far north
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2816. scott39
TD4 is not a matter of if---- its a matter of when. Its probably going to take a good 36 to 48 hours to develope.
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Good morning, Code Red for 91L at 60% chance of tropical storm formation with 48 hours as of 8 a.m.

Does anyone know when 91L was designated?
Also 1,100 known dead now from Pakistan flooding.
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Quoting weatherwart:

Straight black or fru-fur with whip and sprinkles?


Cafe molka.... no extra fru fru. but I do like the chocolate
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Quoting weatherwart:

Straight black or fru-fur with whip and sprinkles?
Does he really look like a whip and sprinkles kind of guy to you? I THINK NOT....LOL
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2812. IKE
Good luck everybody keeping up with the posts the next 7-10 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I was in the editing room last night.. Need Coffee bad.. LOL

moning

Straight black or fru-fur with whip and sprinkles?
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good morning guys wow TD 4 is on it way

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:



Guess that is better then Colon Caster



LOL
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Quoting msgambler:
Glad you decided to drag out of bed and join the conversation earthly. Good morning!


I was in the editing room last night.. Need Coffee bad.. LOL

moning
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2806. scott39
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


40% This still has a long way to go before it's even a TD
So you think they would drop the %?
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Quoting raziorizzo:
Greetings from Orlando Florida everyone!! WOW..91L.....Any idea of possible track or just to early to tell. Have a Great day folks


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And now... its starts.. hold onto your hats :)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Glad you decided to drag out of bed and join the conversation earthly. Good morning!
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Quoting raziorizzo:
Greetings from Orlando Florida everyone!! WOW..91L.....Any idea of possible track or just to early to tell. Have a Great day folks


Quoting clwstmchasr:
With a forecast high of being that strong, is there a chance that this system could go straight west through the Caribbean? (Dean and Felix). It is at a very low latitude right now.


Too early to tell
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
Quoting Waltanater:
"Mr. 6000" here. Looks like Colin is gonna BRING IT! What is wrong with the model link?

-Colin-Caster!

LOL



Guess that is better then Colon Caster
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2799. scott39
Quoting weatherman12345:

That creates a more southerly track right?
WNW and then more W later. IMO
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Greetings from Orlando Florida everyone!! WOW..91L.....Any idea of possible track or just to early to tell. Have a Great day folks
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Quoting weatherman12345:
quick poll for the next two on 91L
A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. 100%


40% This still has a long way to go before it's even a TD
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Quoting java162:


convection decreasing some what but banding features are becoming more prevalent
I don't see convection waning at all...
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Quoting deautschlandfutbol:
ok this avatar thing is really making me mad. its approved but how do i use it as a avatar?


Click on your pic. It should show a screen with just that pic. Under that it will say modify my photo. Click that then you can check portrait on next screen.
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Quoting hurricaneben:
A tropical depression should form either tonight or more likely tomorrow considering the rate of development, 10% higher per TWO meaning 2 today we must have 70, 8 tonight 80, 2 tonight, 90 and 8 tomorrow 100 so yeah I'm going with a tropical depression by tomorrow morning. Who agrees?


Sounds about right.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
2790. scott39
Quoting IKE:
CrownWeather take on 91L.
WHOA!
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A tropical depression should form either tonight or more likely tomorrow considering the rate of development, 10% higher per TWO meaning 2 today we must have 70, 8 tonight 80, 2 tonight, 90 and 8 tomorrow 100 so yeah I'm going with a tropical depression by tomorrow morning. Who agrees?
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anyone have the walkthrough on how to add a photo?
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"Mr. 6000" here. Looks like Colin is gonna BRING IT! What is wrong with the model link?

-Colin-Caster!

LOL
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Good Morning!!! Hope everyone is doing well and the Swirls are going!!

I believe MJO is upward now! I got lightning last night... And there was a bunch!
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2784. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Is it 12 hours in between new runs?


Yes. Next one starts in about 6 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2783. IKE
CrownWeather take on 91L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Awfully early for polls but it has to be(E) 100%...
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2781. java162
Quoting P451:
Healthy looking invest. Probably won't take too much time reaching Depression strength.

There are some pockets of mid-level shear to encounter but none go above 15kt. Some moderate shear NE of PR could be a problem though.





convection decreasing some what but banding features are becoming more prevalent
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2780. scott39
Quoting mikatnight:


The high gets bigger now...this is different from previous runs on all the models. I wonder what's different?
I think the forecast weakness in the high was too strong.
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Quoting deautschlandfutbol:
ok this avatar thing is really making me mad. its approved but how do i use it as a avatar?


make sure you chose it as your main portrait
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ok this avatar thing is really making me mad. its approved but how do i use it as a avatar?
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90% depression at 11pm or 5
so The main consensus is a Francis track storm right what about intensity?
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Quoting weatherman12345:
quick poll for the next two on 91L
A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. 100%


70% IMO.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
Quoting scott39:
Yea, I know its too far out to lock down the track, but when the ECMWF--shows that-- it gets my attention.


The high gets bigger now...this is different from previous runs on all the models. I wonder what's different?
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2773. scott39
Quoting IKE:


It's the best model to follow. If it locks in on intensity for a couple of more runs, better start hoping it turns into a fish.

It may back off again on the 12Z run. Seems unlikely, but it could.
Is it 12 hours in between new runs?
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2770. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Yea, I know its too far out to lock down the track, but when the ECMWF--shows that-- it gets my attention.


It's the best model to follow. If it locks in on intensity for a couple of more runs, better start hoping it turns into a fish.

It may back off again on the 12Z run. Seems unlikely, but it could.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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