Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Amazing what airbrush can do...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:


Lol ok just making sure, and I can send you some rain in SELA but you gotta send me some rain here in south Florida!! My grass is now hay.

Ha, Deal! Our grass wont stop growing! Its rediculous.
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That "L" coming off Africa is listed at 1002. Is that normal?
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Quoting Filibuster:
Lastly, ms. welcome, you've got mail, too. bye, all.
Is he serious? OK later
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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks :)

You're using Internet Explorer....it always displays my blog like that. Use any other browser and it will work fine.


That explains it! I can only use Firefox when I'm not on the network at work. Can't complain, it is a free computer after all.
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602. Filibuster
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.


good job Admin now about re moveing him from posting all togeter
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Quoting NOSinger:
And I am the HULK!! lol

The hulk is pretty awesome tho! Haha
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612. xcool
Tazmanian /guess not.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I'm expecting the NHC to bump chances to 40-50%, possibly 50%. It's really starting to look good and has model support. Very surprised this is not an invest!!
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And I am the HULK!! lol
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i dont think he nos what the word banned mean dos he
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Quoting RadarRich:

Hey Levi,
Just wanted to say that your video/tidbits that you produce are outstanding. Very informative and easy to understand for anyone who is a novice. Thanks for the great job you do. I recomend anyone on the WU to check Levi's input on the tropics daily, It is refrshingly concise and to the point, Thanks, Rich


Thank you =) I'm glad you enjoy them.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting pvbeachbum:


I would be interested in reading your Cancun data - especially when storms are in the area! But I am mostly a lurker, which is why I didn't say anything when you gave your introduction... but I thought it would be nice to have on-the-spot weather reports from your area.


Yes, please share your data. I am mostly a lurker as well but chime in now and again.

trust me only a few will respond to my post so don't take it personally. Maybe you need to put up a pouty lip picture to get a response.
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Jesus as soon as a young attractive lady comes online you have to start sending emails and stuff?? Come on man it is a weather blog not eharmony.

Anyway it seems the area of the African coast is slowly coming to life but lets see if it can maintain convection for 24 hours and acquire a LLC

Its ok, he sent it a while back and im just checking my mail. He wasnt hittin on me Lol. Good lookin out tho.

Can someone send some rain to SELA? Thanks!
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Quoting cloudy0day:
Nice Tropical Tidbit Levi! Your log always post text in list form on my computer, not sure what is up. Good afternoon Storm, Keeper, Pat, Taz and many more. Made it up to 97 degrees here by noon with 78% humidity. I'm hoping the rain dropping down through FL holds out until it gets here. Are the waves coming off Africa going to keep working off as far south as they are now?


Thanks :)

You're using Internet Explorer....it always displays my blog like that. Use any other browser and it will work fine.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Tazmanian:
was that JFV posting lol
Yes Taz.
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90-91L is geting stronger
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was that JFV posting lol
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595. xcool


here better image..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Sat 31 Jul 2010 21:30:01Z


2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

NONE

East Pacific

97E.INVEST(deactivate)

Central Pacific

92C.INVEST

West Pacific

95W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere



I think this will change this evening
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


1008mb low back on the map.


2 mbs stronger than 90L ever was too.
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Quoting Filibuster:
Lastly, ms. welcome, you've got mail, too. bye, all.
It's Mrs thank you very much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice Tropical Tidbit Levi! Your log always post text in list form on my computer, not sure what is up. Good afternoon Storm, Keeper, Pat, Taz and many more. Made it up to 97 degrees here by noon with 78% humidity. I'm hoping the rain dropping down through FL holds out until it gets here. Are the waves coming off Africa going to keep working off as far south as they are now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ho77yw00d:


lol...
You have mail. It is very hot in Cayman now too and no breeze whatsoever.
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Quoting StormW:
Well this is the .44 Magnum automag, and it holds a 300 grain cartridge, and if properly used, it can REMOVE the SAL.

That is great
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


1008mb low back on the map.


9N 35W. mm
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StormW: I knew you would come up with a solution.
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Quoting pvbeachbum:


I would be interested in reading your Cancun data - especially when storms are in the area! But I am mostly a lurker, which is why I didn't say anything when you gave your introduction... but I thought it would be nice to have on-the-spot weather reports from your area.
Agreed, the more field data the better. Welcome back.
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Quoting Levi32:
Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 31st, with Video

Hey Levi,
Just wanted to say that your video/tidbits that you produce are outstanding. Very informative and easy to understand for anyone who is a novice. Thanks for the great job you do. I recomend anyone on the WU to check Levi's input on the tropics daily, It is refrshingly concise and to the point, Thanks, Rich
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Quoting KanKunKid:
Well I just rejoined after 2 years and have a front seat here in Cancun and wanted to share my info, but nobody said nothin'.

So your're right, but not saying anything isn't always good.

I report my data direct to the NHC so I don't really need to share anything, just trying to be nice.

But I always held StormW in high regard. And a few others. I usually just read.
Shared information is always welcome and sometimes it might take a while to get a reply from someone but you eventually will so be patient.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:
Well I just rejoined after 2 years and have a front seat here in Cancun and wanted to share my info, but nobody said nothin'.

So your're right, but not saying anything isn't always good.

I report my data direct to the NHC so I don't really need to share anything, just trying to be nice.

But I always held StormW in high regard. And a few others. I usually just read.


I would be interested in reading your Cancun data - especially when storms are in the area! But I am mostly a lurker, which is why I didn't say anything when you gave your introduction... but I thought it would be nice to have on-the-spot weather reports from your area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Sat 31 Jul 2010 21:30:01Z

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
NONE
East Pacific
97E.INVEST(deactivate)
Central Pacific
92C.INVEST
West Pacific
95W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ho77yw00d:


WOW DUDE... GET A LIFE!


He has none.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i would re move that if i where you dont want too loss you overe a 24hr banned
Really? Banned for that. Maybe he feels "lucky". Well do you Storm?
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575. xcool
StormW:remove it faster
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 28 sec ago
Scattered Clouds

96.4 °F

Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 42%
Dew Point: 70 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 5.8 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Falling)

Heat Index: 103 °F

Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Pollen: 3.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Well this is the .44 Magnum automag, and it holds a 300 grain cartridge, and if properly used, it can REMOVE the SAL.

bahahahhbhahahha...good stuff!
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Quoting StormW:
Well this is the .44 Magnum automag, and it holds a 300 grain cartridge, and if properly used, it can REMOVE the SAL.



lol...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Well this is the .44 Magnum automag, and it holds a 300 grain cartridge, and if properly used, it can REMOVE the SAL.




i would re move that if i where you dont want too loss you overe a 24hr banned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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