Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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670. xcool
btwntx08 40-50% good one.50% me
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Goldenblack:
Lutz, Wesley Chapel, New Tampa area here...

haven't gotten more than 6-7 inches all month, very unusual for this time of year.





DeLand, Deltona & Deleon Springs all started off the summer with normal rainfall and it just turned off after july 4th! Even my native plants are dropping!
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Quoting HouGalv08:
Looks like it's tightening at 7N36W
18z surface analysis puts the area of low pressure by 9N and 36W.
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Hey Admin.... how about 4 removed comments = ban. Save you and us a lot of time.



noted if he going too starting doing that he sould start with Filibuster
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like the convection burst is centered over the broad area of low pressure.
Looks like it's tightening at 7N36W
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Orlando, Daytona and Melbourne too all below normal.
My father lives in Dunedin and he said very dry too.
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661. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting centralflaman:


no knowledge here. everyone spews crap out to make what they want look good. People who sit on blogs all day have no life. You moron!! I was joking around with her. geeze


Putting you in time out! Shame on you. Reported
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Displaying weapons is NOT allowed,even in jest.


565. StormW
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.
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Quoting xcool:
50% at 8pm


they will bump up the % for sure
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Lutz, Wesley Chapel, New Tampa area here...

haven't gotten more than 6-7 inches all month, very unusual for this time of year.



Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone Floridians in the Hillsborough/Tampa area notice the lack of rain we've had this summer?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like the convection burst is centered over the broad area of low pressure.
hey Miami the heat is killing us here i think ex90L will be 50%
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Quoting StormW:
Levi,
Great job again! Have you seen the MJO Index? Following the Forecast MJO Index.


Thanks!

Yup, I didn't show the graphs on the video but it looks like the UKMET is doing very well so far on this particular cycle. It looks to be coming right back towards the Atlantic and the upward motion map shows only weak downward motion now with even spots of green showing up.





Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone Floridians in the Hillsborough/Tampa area notice the lack of rain we've had this summer?


Orlando, Daytona and Melbourne too all below normal.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone Floridians in the Hillsborough/Tampa area notice the lack of rain we've had this summer?


I have. The rain seems to come for 2 days then leaves for a week.
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Quoting reedzone:


Copycater :P
LOL, I just started reading back and noticed that you said the same thing.
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Quoting reedzone:


GFS and EURO are back on board as of 12Z


Been out all day. Did the surface trough tighten back up to a low?

1008mb too, could be an interesting night, looking really good ATM.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Hey Admin.... how about 4 removed comments = ban. Save you and us a lot of time.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Not really but, doesn't happen that often. There have been a couple cases where a storm has developed right upon leaving the coast. 1002 is storm strength.

Scary!
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647. xcool
50% at 8pm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Reed....can you post the GFS and the EURO??
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Jesus as soon as a young attractive lady comes online you have to start sending emails and stuff?? Come on man it is a weather blog not eharmony.

Anyway it seems the area of the African coast is slowly coming to life but lets see if it can maintain convection for 24 hours and acquire a LLC
lol
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Quoting Levi32:
Convection is increasing with ex-90L
Looks like the convection burst is centered over the broad area of low pressure.
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convection continues to increase
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good afternoon everyone! Satellite imagery continues to suggest that our feature is getting better organized. I'm thinking that at 8PM the NHC will give it a 40% chance.


Copycater :P
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Anyone Floridians in the Hillsborough/Tampa area notice the lack of rain we've had this summer?
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we have back our low but lower pressures 1008mb

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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I was just coming here to say that. Medium chance with no models running?

NHC is doing some different things this year. Not that it's bad, just seems that the info & timing is different than years past.


GFS and EURO are back on board as of 12Z
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Quoting msgambler:
E-Harmony is down the hall and to the left. This is a weather blog and that is the reason she is here. I'm sure she is tired of people like you hitting on her!

LOL I was going to say that!
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Quoting msgambler:
E-Harmony is down the hall and to the left. This is a weather blog and that is the reason she is here. I'm sure she is tired of people like you hitting on her!


And something tells me she is a big girl and has no problem dealing with the jerks herself. Probably appreciates the concern but doesn't need it.
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Quoting muddertracker:
That "L" coming off Africa is listed at 1002. Is that normal?


Not really but, doesn't happen that often. There have been a couple cases where a storm has developed right upon leaving the coast. 1002 is storm strength.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting Seflhurricane:
I have not seen this amount of comments being removed in a long time

They got there game face on! Wish it was like this all the time!! Especially during an active storm.
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Good afternoon everyone! Satellite imagery continues to suggest that our feature is getting better organized. I'm thinking that at 8PM the NHC will give it a 40% chance.
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631. xcool
Tazmanian haha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes12:


I saw that. The wave itself looks great. I'm not sure if it's 1002 MB but we'll have to see until it reaches water.
Link
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I have not seen this amount of comments being removed in a long time
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Convection is increasing with ex-90L
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting centralflaman:


ur hot!!
E-Harmony is down the hall and to the left. This is a weather blog and that is the reason she is here. I'm sure she is tired of people like you hitting on her!
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Quoting reedzone:
I'm expecting the NHC to bump chances to 40-50%, possibly 50%. It's really starting to look good and has model support. Very surprised this is not an invest!!

Yeah.
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Quoting muddertracker:
That "L" coming off Africa is listed at 1002. Is that normal?


I saw that. The wave itself looks great. I'm not sure if it's 1002 MB but we'll have to see until it reaches water.
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wow commets are being re move like rates today
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Quoting reedzone:
I'm expecting the NHC to bump chances to 40-50%, possibly 50%. It's really starting to look good and has model support. Very surprised this is not an invest!!


I was just coming here to say that. Medium chance with no models running?

NHC is doing some different things this year. Not that it's bad, just seems that the info & timing is different than years past.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Amazing what airbrush can do...lol
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.