Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Storm write your congressman their stepping all over your 2nd amendment rights. Oh God what is this country coming to. By the why what's your take on 9n 33w.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cyber Teddy next time the afternoon build up starts Ill hit the roof of my 7 story office building and use my Jedi Force Power of Shockwave and give it a shove in your general direction. lol. I know and my sun roof leaks. Got fish swimming in the trunk of my car. Its like a lake in there. Just kidding PETA People.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


see, I new it wouldn't take long once 90L was out of the picture. That's about where I was thinking.
Smart man...lol.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
GFS/NAM models


Interesting that the NAM continues to develop that weak wave in the Caribbean.
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Ouch...

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713. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z surface analysis puts the area of low pressure by 9N and 36W.


see, I new it wouldn't take long once 90L was out of the picture. That's about where I was thinking.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting FLdewey:


There is no mod in real time. After (x) number of people minus a comment it's hidden and flagged for review. It's automatic and does not involve the admin.

If thats the case then WU is working ... finally
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
GFS 18z 48 hours -- Model still running



GFS already shows it developing.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

An area of High Pressure is above Ex 90L, protecting it and allowing it to grow!
Also aids in "venting" the storm, increasing inflow at the lower levels (5000' to surface)
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The system will pop, but its going to take time. Remember we are not yet in the prime part of the season.
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Thank you StormW.
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Quoting ClearH2Ostormchaser:
Cyber Teddy ,as to your post about rain, Come on over to Pinellas LOL.


Your hogging the rain! I'm dry as a bone here in E Hillsborough!
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GFS/NAM models
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Quoting Filibuster:
Levi, how will conditiosn look for it, once it begis to move north of the Carib? any primitive thoughts?


At this time I don't see anything significant to prevent it from strengthening if it becomes a tropical cyclone by then, but things can change and it's a while away yet.
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Thanks. opposite of what I thought....LOL
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Hydrus, We had a Tropical Storm Bonnie.......................... Seen more rain and T and L in a 5:30 daily rain storm LOL
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First of I never hit on her did I alaina it was weather talk that's all. Second of all storm w u watch I'm going to ny this week to to work the nascar race and when I get back by next week it will explode and bÝ that time 90l should be knocking on floridas door step if nothing changes.
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Quoting breald:


in laymans terms please. Does that mean it is not allowing it to develop? Thanks

An area of High Pressure is above Ex 90L, protecting it and allowing it to grow!
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483. StormW 9:02 PM GMT on July 31, 2010
Quoting alaina1085:
Storm, have you heard from Kman? I havent seen him post in a while.


No, I haven't. Yeah, he hasn't posted in a while

Kman lives just under 1 mile from me, I usually see him crossing everyday, but I probably haven't seen him in about 2-3 weeks I was wondering the same thing myself , unless hes gone a well deserved Summer vacation.
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mod is just getting smart .. why ban the handle when he'll come back and you wont know who he is ... just keep eliminating the comments. Its a good plan. Banning doesnt work and thus far this is helping.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Over 13in in Clearwater at the Pinellas County Weather Station.

http://www.pinellascounty.org/weather/index.html
One slow moving whack with a weak tropical storm could change the little drought situation in some areas (excluding Tropical Storm Bonnie)..:)
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691. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z surface analysis puts the area of low pressure by 9N and 36W.
I don't think 2 deg latitude "out there" will make that much difference, other than maybe slowing the development due to slowing the effect of Coriolis, somewhat. The has the potential to be BIG and mean once it taps into the heat in the Carib. and GOM
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Quoting StormW:


Close to where I noticed on RGB imagery earlier...9N;34.9W
Good call. I was thinking a little bit further east near 33.5W or so.
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Cyber Teddy ,as to your post about rain, Come on over to Pinellas LOL.
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Quoting reedzone:
CIMMS shear map shows a classic an anticyclone forming over X-90L (as of now)


in laymans terms please. Does that mean it is not allowing it to develop? Thanks
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Quoting mcluvincane:
I never thought That storm would violate community standards. I personally don't see anything wrong with his post of the magnum


surpising
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Can someone post the GFS and the EURO models?
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Golden move to Clearwater, had to buy my chickens scuba gear.
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I'm back! How's 91L to be?
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Quoting Filibuster:
Levi, do you think it's becoming more concentrated and complex?


Concentrated = simple, and you want simple to get tropical development, not complex. It is still quite broad and elongated at the moment.
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CIMMS shear map shows a classic an anticyclone forming over X-90L (as of now)
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I never thought That storm would violate community standards. I personally don't see anything wrong with his post of the magnum
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Hey StormW. How are you sir. Was wondering what your take is on the CMC model I know I know. It seems to strengthen this blob and pull it up and out to sea. Is it seeing some hole in the blocking High, for lack of a better term.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Orlando, Daytona and Melbourne too all below normal.


impressive blows up like the one north of these citie could catch up the lack of rain
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Quoting HouGalv08:
Looks like it's tightening at 7N36W
That's what it looks like to me. I thought it was just a bit further west than 35W.
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670. xcool
btwntx08 40-50% good one.50% me
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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